Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction 25 January 2025

🔊 Will Newcastle retain their spot in the European competition zone by the end of the 23rd round of the Premier League? At least they are considered favorites in the matchup against Southampton, who are likely to be relegated to the Championship at the end of the season. There is a significant difference in class between the teams, but the “Saints” will try to earn points at St. Mary's Stadium. On our part, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

In the span of 37 head-to-head matches, Newcastle holds the advantage with a 54% win rate. They were also stronger in the first round of the current season (1:0). However, in the first half, Fabian Schär left the “Magpies” with one less player. Despite Southampton's significant playing advantage, Joelinton scored at the end of the first half, securing Newcastle's sixth consecutive head-to-head victory. Therefore, a bet on a victory for the visitors seems quite logical.

🔴 Southampton

Southampton is the weakest team in the Premier League. They have only six points. For example, Leicester, their neighbor in the standings, already has 14. Therefore, the “Saints” will likely leave the Premier League by the end of the season. The club changed their coach, but nothing has changed. Under Ivan Jurić's leadership, the team suffered five consecutive defeats in the Premier League, only defeating Swansea (3:0) in the FA Cup. However, Southampton can take some positives from the last round. Yes, they lost the first half against Nottingham Forest by three goals, but they reduced the deficit to one after halftime (2:3). Despite their position in the standings, Southampton is trying to strengthen their squad. In the winter transfer window, they signed 18-year-old defender Joshim Sandu (Valenciennes), who was the captain of France's U17 national team at the 2023 World Cup. The club also loaned Danish national team midfielder Albert Grønbech (Rennes) until the end of the season. Notably, Jack Stephens and Ross Stewart, who have been injured for a long time, will not play in the upcoming match. Young Tyler Dibling was injured against Manchester United and missed the last round.

⚪ Newcastle

Newcastle is in excellent form. Not long ago, they had a series of nine victories across all competitions, which ended last weekend. They unexpectedly suffered a heavy defeat from Bournemouth at St James' Park (1:4). However, two goals were conceded in injury time. Despite this, they remained in the top-6 of the Premier League and have an equal number of points with Manchester City. Newcastle's excellent form is highlighted by Alexander Isak being named the best player in the EPL in December, with eight goals and two assists in six matches. In the upcoming match, Nick Pope, Harvey Barnes, Callum Wilson, and Jamaal Lascelles will not play due to injuries.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Samuel Barrott. This season, he has officiated 14 Premier League matches. Southampton participated in two of these games. In these matches, the referee showed 13 yellow cards, although his average for the season is much lower (4.43).

Southampton has an advantage in yellow cards this season - 2.9 compared to 2. In matches involving these teams, there are on average slightly less than five cautions. In their head-to-head match in the first round, the opponents received a total of six yellow cards. Considering the referee's statistics, a bet on total yellow cards over 3.5 seems like a safe bet.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Both teams approach this match with trends leaning towards high-scoring games. In five consecutive matches involving Southampton, at least three goals were scored. The same pattern is observed in 8 out of Newcastle's last 9 matches. In their head-to-head meeting in the first round, they limited themselves to one goal. However, an early sending-off for the “Magpies” affected that game. If no such force majeure occurs, then total goals over 2.5 has a good chance of winning.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Newcastle has an advantage in corners this season - 5.8 compared to 4.5. Meanwhile, Southampton has no more than three corners in five consecutive home matches. This may indicate a low-scoring nature for corners in the upcoming match. Therefore, we suggest betting on total corners under 11.5, which has been successful in 8 out of Southampton's last 9 matches.

📝 Match Prediction

Newcastle is favored for the upcoming match. They faltered in the last round, suffering a heavy defeat from Bournemouth. But the “Saints” are much weaker than Iraola's team. Therefore, we expect a confident victory for the visitors, perhaps with a score of 3:1.

Southampton concedes more than any other team in the Premier League (50 goals). The arrival of a new coach, who largely focuses on defense, has not yet had an effect. Under him, the team continues to concede almost three goals on average per game. Something similar could happen in the upcoming match since Newcastle has been strong offensively lately. Before losing to Bournemouth, they had not conceded more than one goal in nine consecutive matches, with Dubravka achieving six clean sheets. Therefore, as a key bet, we suggest Newcastle to win with a handicap (-1.5).