Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 25 October 2026
🔊 Toulouse have looked more comfortable on the road this season. They've picked up six points from four Ligue 1 away fixtures, compared to just three from three home games. Now Troyes, the newly promoted side sitting 17th, are coming to town - and they haven't picked up a single point since late August. Can Toulouse finally secure a routine home win?
Head-to-Head
📊 The most recent head-to-head clash took place in February 2023 in Ligue 1, where Toulouse cruised past Troyes with a commanding 4-1 victory. On home soil, the hosts are unbeaten against this opponent in eight consecutive meetings. Back in Ligue 2, the sides played out two draws in their encounters during the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
Head-to-head statistics Toulouse - Troyes
Toulouse remain unbeaten on the road, but have managed just one home win.
Toulouse remain unbeaten on the road this season, recording three draws and a win. Their most recent away fixture was particularly impressive: on October 16, Jens Berthel Askou’s side cruised past Le Mans with a 3-0 victory, all three goals coming after the break. Kasper Tengstedt nearly bagged a brace, but saw his second goal chalked off for offside following a VAR review. Toulouse now boast a four-match unbeaten run in Ligue 1, sitting 11th in the table with nine points.
Things look different at home. Against Lyon and Lille, Toulouse came away empty-handed and failed to find the net. Their only home win-a nervy affair against Le Havre-saw them twice take a two-goal lead, only for Le Havre to claw their way back each time, the second with just two minutes left on the clock. “After scoring twice, we thought we had the game under control, but they responded,” Askou reflected after that match. Toulouse have now conceded in six consecutive Ligue 1 home games, a streak stretching back to last season.
Match Results: Toulouse
Troyes: Five Defeats and Disastrous Second-Half Performances
The opening two rounds saw the newcomers collect four points, but since then, Troyes have slumped to five straight defeats. Stéphane Dumont’s side have particularly struggled after the break, conceding in the second half for six consecutive matches. That trend continued in the previous round: Lens found the net again after halftime and left with a two-goal victory. After that match, Dumont admitted his team need to finish halves stronger and be more focused on set pieces.
Troyes are creating chances, but goals remain elusive. On October 11 against Marseille, the promoted side fired 15 shots and struck the woodwork twice, yet still fell 2-0. “My players? They’re demoralized,” Dumont confessed. After seven rounds, Troyes have scored just five times-the same tally as Le Havre, with no team managing fewer. The lone goal against Lens was Timothée Nkada’s first of the season; the forward is on loan from Belgian club Standard.
Match Results: Troyes
Latest news
Toulouse
❓ Abu Francis remains doubtful as he continues his recovery from a hamstring strain.
Troyes
❓ Dumont may be without defender Paolo Gozzi, who is a doubt after picking up a knock. Ismaël Boura is dealing with a hip issue.
Probable Lineups
📋 Toulouse's projected starting XI: Restes - Messali, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Tape - Casseres, Sigur - Donnum, Jorgensen, Tengstedt - Russell-Rowe.
📋 Troyes' projected starting XI: Beach - Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Gozzi - Karim, Mille, Diop, Ifnaoui - Ripart, Nkada.
Total Goals Prediction
Troyes have scored more than once in Toulouse just once in their last eight head-to-head meetings. On the road this season, the newly-promoted side have only found the net in Lorient, drawing blanks in both Lille and Angers. Toulouse kept a clean sheet in their most recent outing, with goalkeeper Guillaume Restes making two crucial saves against Le Mans. We don’t expect Troyes to score more than once here. The pick is Troyes under 1.5 goals at 1.30*.
Corners Prediction
Troyes have taken at least five corners in each of their last eight matches. While the league table might not reflect it, the newly promoted side are consistently aggressive in the final third. Over their previous 10 official fixtures, Troyes have racked up 67 corners, compared to just 29 for their opponents. Even against Strasbourg, despite conceding six goals, Troyes managed to win 11 corners and didn’t concede a single one from the flag. Toulouse, on the other hand, show the opposite trend over the same span: 43 corners for themselves and 49 for their rivals. Expect Troyes to deliver at least five corners here. The pick: Troyes over 4.5 team corners at 2.17*.
Yellow Cards Prediction
In six of Toulouse’s last seven matches, there have been no more than four yellow cards shown. Over their previous ten official fixtures, Askou’s side have picked up 22 bookings, while their opponents have collected 15. During the same stretch, matches involving Troyes have seen a combined total of 29 yellow cards. We’re not expecting more than four cards in this one. The pick: under 4.5 yellow cards.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Troyes have failed to win in 7 of their last 8 matches, and they haven't beaten Toulouse in 12 consecutive head-to-head encounters. This season, the hosts have only dropped points at home to teams from the top five-Lyon and Lille. Toulouse, however, are not in that elite group; Troyes sit 17th and have conceded 16 goals in seven rounds. We expect Toulouse to extend their unbeaten run against this opponent to 13 matches and secure all three points. Our pick: Toulouse to win. Predicted scoreline: 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Toulouse - Troyes
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