Hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 24 October 2026
🔊 Thor Akureyri go into the final round of the Besta-deild with their fate in their own hands: a win in Hafnarfjördur will keep them in the league. In September the club dropped into the relegation zone after losing a derby to KA, their city neighbours. Back-to-back wins over Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan then lifted them a point clear. Now they travel to a side they have beaten just once in 14 head-to-head meetings - and that win came at home. Can Thor repeat it in Hafnarfjördur with a whole season on the line?
Head-to-Head
Þór Akureyri won the most recent head-to-head meeting in the Premier Division 1-0, despite Hafnarfjörður having the greater share of possession at 57%. Þór had the edge in shots, though, with 21 to Hafnarfjörður's 12.
Across 14 head-to-head meetings, Hafnarfjörður have won nine, drawn four and lost one. Their home record is particularly dominant: five wins and two draws, with a goal difference of 16-3.
Head-to-head statistics Hafnarfjordur - Thor Akureyri
FH Hafnarfjordur Team Overview
Hafnarfjörður lost their previous Úrvalsdeild match away to Vestmannaeyjar, going down 3-1. They had the better of the shot count - 16 to 10 - and won ten corners to three, but it wasn't enough.
Hafnarfjörður, or FH, only found their form towards the end of the season. After the table split, the hosts took nine points from 12. Before that, over 22 rounds, Jóhannes Karl Guðjónsson's side had managed just four wins. At home, FH scored five goals against Stjarnan, then matched that tally away to Valur.
The manager himself believes the difficult start to the season brought the squad together: "People are often hardened by adversity." That said, in their next away fixture FH lost to already-relegated Vestmannaeyjar (1-3), despite their opponents being down to ten men for more than 50 minutes. At home they are more reliable: FH have gone unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 league matches on their own ground. They currently sit ninth on 30 points, with Stjarnan just one point ahead of them.
Match Results: FH Hafnarfjordur
Thor Akureyri Team Overview
In the previous round, Þór Akureyri beat Stjärnan Garðabær 3-1. The visitors had more shots - 23 to 17 - and more possession, but Þór Akureyri had nine shots on target to their opponents' eight.
Þór are surviving in the league despite their own attack. They have scored 27 goals - fewer than any other side in the Besta-deild. More often than not, Þór grind out points by the narrowest of margins: four of their five wins in their last ten matches have been by a score of 1-0. They have scored three goals in a single match just once during that run - last round, when they beat Stjörnan. The problem is that Þór have won only once in their last 12 away matches in the Besta-deild, and that is exactly what they need on Saturday.
Match Results: Thor Akureyri
Match Result Prediction
Thor Akureyri have beaten Hafnarfjördur just once in their last 14 head-to-head meetings. Away from home this season, Thor have lost nine matches and won only twice. A draw will be enough for the hosts. The pick is Hafnarfjördur not to lose.
Safer Bet
Five or more goals have been scored in only 2 of the last 14 head-to-head meetings between Hafnarfjörður and Þór Akureyri. We expect this match to stay within four goals as well. The bet is Total Goals - Under 4.5.
Correct Score Prediction
Based on the statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm identifies three most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9.56%), 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-2 (7.15%). Of these, the 1-1 draw has the highest probability.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Goals are hard to come by when Hafnarfjörður and Þór meet in the Besta-deild. The two sides have combined for fewer than four goals in seven consecutive head-to-head meetings. Hafnarfjörður themselves have scored no more than two goals against this opponent in each of their last five meetings. Þór are no more prolific - they have not scored more than two goals in any of their last 13 away matches in the Besta-deild. The visitors' need for a win is unlikely to sharpen their attack. We expect the hosts to avenge their defeat in Akureyri back in September, with the two sides combining for no more than three goals. The bet is Total Goals - Under 3.5.
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Betting Tips: FH Hafnarfjordur - Thor Akureyri
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