Fakel vs Rodina Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 24 October 2026
🔉 Both Fakel and Rodina made changes to their coaching staff after poor starts to the season: each side has six points, one win, three draws and seven defeats. The Voronezh club are bottom of the RPL, with the Moscow side just above them. The match in Voronezh is not about attractive football - it is one team's attempt to climb out of trouble while the other continues to slide.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have met twice, both times in the First League. Rodina won both matches, scoring at least two goals in each. The psychological edge lies with the visitors, but the Fakel of those meetings and the current one are different teams.
Head-to-head statistics Fakel - Rodina
Fakel: Rebko has sparked a revival, but home games remain a tough challenge
Under Oleg Vasilenko, Fakel went ten rounds without a win and he was sacked after a 0-5 thrashing by Lokomotiv. Alexei Rebko, who had previously been working with the youth team, started with two consecutive victories: in the Cup against Krasnodar (2-0) and away at Samara against Krylya Sovetov (2-1) in the RPL. In both matches Voronezh scored two goals, which had not happened in the league for some time. Both wins, however, came away from home - Fakel have yet to win a home match in the RPL this season.
Their home record makes for grim reading: in 9 of their last 10 home RPL matches, Voronezh managed no more than four shots on target, and they have not won once across that run. Without Sutormin, who had been playing with a broken arm and has now had surgery, the attack loses its last creative player. Rebko faces the question of how to score without a single proven playmaker at his disposal.
Match Results: Fakel Voronezh
Rodina: Alba take on the league’s weakest defense
Jonathan Alba, who was sacked by Rostov, took charge of Rodina at the start of October. Under him, the club have lost to CSKA in the league and to Spartak in the Cup, and picked up their first point last round - a dramatic 2-2 draw with Orenburg in which the Moscow side conceded two penalties but salvaged a result in the final minute. Rodina have conceded more than any other side in the RPL: 27 goals in 11 rounds. Their defence has been wide open, and even Fakel's modest attack could take advantage of that.
Away from home, the visitors score even less than they do at home: an average of 0.67 goals per match, and Total Goals - Under 3.5 came in in 5 of their last 6 away matches. Alba is trying to reshape the team's play, but he has inherited a difficult squad: one win all season and nine rounds without a victory. The one bright spot has been Bakayev, who opened the scoring on his debut in Khimki, and Silva, whose delivery in the final minute earned the draw.
Match Results: Rodina Moscow
Latest news
Fakel Voronezh
Sutormin has had surgery after breaking his left arm in the match against Krasnodar. The midfielder played through injections in Samara, but is now definitely unavailable. Rebko publicly praised the player's character, noting that very few people take to the field with an injury like that. Fakel have no other serious absentees.
Rodina Moscow
Iker Pozo is suspended and will miss the match. Albacete's other injury concerns are not critical, but the squad clearly lacks depth: the rebuilding process is taking place against a backdrop of bottom-of-the-table standing and the worst defence in the league.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Referee Ivan Abrosimov has taken charge of five RPL matches in the 2026/27 season, averaging 25 fouls and 3.8 yellow cards per game. In both head-to-head meetings between these sides, Fakel received at least two cards, and the same was true in three of their last four official matches. The main bet is Fakel Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5 at 1.72*.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Rodina have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five matches in a row. Across that run, 23 goals were scored in total. Fakel under Rebko scored two in each of their two meetings. The visitors' defence gives little reason to expect a low-scoring game. We're going with Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.35*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Fakel have taken at least six corners in six of their last eight home RPL matches. Rodina concede an average of 7.5 corners per away game. The hosts will press forward even without the quality to match it, while the visitors will continue to make mistakes around their own box. The prediction is Fakel Team Total Corners - Over 5.5 at 1.99*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Fakel have won both matches under Rebko, scoring two goals in each, and look psychologically revived. Rodina under their new manager continue to fall apart: the worst defence in the league, Poso suspended, and just one point under Alba. Voronezh haven't won at home for a long time, but they couldn't ask for a more convenient opponent for a first home win. A Fakel victory is the main selection, though a match between the two worst teams in the league is rarely predictable. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Fakel Voronezh - Rodina Moscow
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