St Pauli vs Hamburger Prediction 23 January 2026
🔊 Matchday 19 of the Bundesliga kicks off with the league's only city derby: at the Millerntor, St. Pauli host Hamburg, presenting the "Pirates" with a great chance to close the gap on the "Dinosaurs." The hosts are currently languishing at the bottom of the table, while the season's newcomers have managed to stay clear of the relegation zone. The visitors will be eager to avenge their home defeat in the opening round, but can they achieve it, given that Hamburg remain the only club yet to secure an away victory?
Head-to-Head
📊 In the first round, St. Pauli triumphed over Hamburg at the Volksparkstadion, with goals from Adam Dzwigala and Andreas Untenji securing a 2-0 victory. This marked the first Hamburg derby in the Bundesliga in nearly 15 years.
Head-to-head statistics St Pauli - Hamburger
St. Pauli Team Overview
🏴☠️ In Saturday's clash against Borussia Dortmund, St. Pauli managed to claw back two goals midway through the second half thanks to strikes from James Sands and Ricky-Jade Jones. However, they ultimately fell short, conceding a penalty in the sixth minute of stoppage time, resulting in a 3-2 defeat. This loss marked the Pirates' 11th in the league, leaving them at the bottom of the table. They trail Mainz on goal difference and are one point adrift of the relegation playoff spot occupied by Heidenheim, while sitting four points away from safety.
🟤 Nevertheless, St. Pauli have a game in hand, scheduled for January 27th, when they will host RB Leipzig at their home ground, Millerntor. Alexander Blessin's side have lost both of their matches in 2026 and have only secured one victory in their last 14 league outings. Despite these setbacks, the two defeats this calendar year are their only losses in the last five games, offering a glimmer of hope in their fight to retain Bundesliga status.
Match Results: St. Pauli
Hamburger Team Overview
🦖 In the 18th round, Hamburg missed out on three points in their home match against Borussia Mönchengladbach (0-0), as none of their 12 shots on target found the back of the net. After 17 rounds played, Merlin Polzin's side are four points clear of the relegation playoff zone. Additionally, the "Dinosaurs" have a rescheduled fixture against Bayer Leverkusen, set for March 4th.
🔵 On one hand, Hamburg have lost only two of their last six matches and sit 14th in the Bundesliga standings. On the other hand, they remain the only team in the league yet to secure an away win this season, having scored just four goals on the road. This marks only the second time in Bundesliga history that the "Dinosaurs" have finished the first half of the season without an away victory. Counterattacks are likely to be Polzin's main strategy in the upcoming game; Hamburg have netted five of their 17 goals this season through quick transitions. Only Bayern Munich have scored more from counterattacks, with eight.
Match Results: Hamburger
Latest news
St. Pauli
🎙️ Alexander Blessin after the defeat in Dortmund: "It was an intense match that ended in bitter disappointment. We started well and closed off the areas where Dortmund are comfortable, which meant we limited their chances, although we could have defended better before the goal just before halftime. At the break, we said we'd stick to our game plan, but then conceded a second goal. What the team achieved after that was incredible. We deservedly reduced the deficit to 2-1 and then equalized at just the right moment. At that point, it felt like we were closer to going 3-2 up, which makes losing in this manner even more painful. It's another heartbreaking defeat. Now we need to regroup and focus on the positives. From tomorrow, we fully switch our attention to the derby."
❌ Andreas Untondji, Jackson Irvine, and David Nemeth continue their recovery from injuries. Connor Metcalfe and Danel Sinani remain doubtful.
Hamburger
🎙️ Merlin Polzin on the team's progress ahead of the return derby: "We've clearly made strides as a team. This was evident in our recent match against Gladbach compared to the first game. We expect this progress to be noticeable in Friday's encounter as well, because in the first match, following a period of significant changes with numerous summer transfers, we had a completely different lineup. Now, Hamburg will be a different team."
❌ Yussuf Poulsen remains sidelined and is undergoing rehabilitation. Guilherme Ramos is also unavailable. Albert Sambi Lokonga missed the last match due to a muscle injury, while Fabio Balde was out with an illness. Aboubakar Soumaoro and Warmed Omari are in the treatment room with knee injuries.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
Tobias Welz has been appointed as the main referee for the match, and he averages five yellow cards per game over his last ten outings. After 17 rounds played, both teams have nearly identical average yellow card stats: 1.7 for the home side and 1.8 for the visitors. Considering the intensity of the derby and current statistics, a bet on over 3.5 yellow cards seems logical-this outcome has occurred in the last four consecutive derbies.
⚽ Goal Prediction
St. Pauli have scored the fewest in the league with 16 goals, while Hamburg have netted 17. Nevertheless, we expect at least one goal from the hosts: St. Pauli have found the net in 10 of their last 11 derbies. Moreover, Hamburg have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches. The bet is on St. Pauli to score.
🚩 Corner Prediction
St. Pauli rank among the top six teams in the league for average corners per game with 5.1. Hamburg trail at the bottom with just 3.6. Despite the home advantage, we're opting for home team under 5.5 corners-this outcome has held true in seven consecutive matches for St. Pauli.
Editorial Prediction
Considering the current form of both clubs, our main prediction is both teams to score (yes). True, Hamburg failed to find the net even at home in the first round, and they have the lowest away goal tally in the Bundesliga. However, since late August, Polzin's squad has significantly improved after a seven-year absence from the top flight, showcasing quality football and sitting above Blessin's side in the standings.
Moreover, St. Pauli have both scored and conceded in six of their last seven matches - a similar statistic applies to Hamburg as well. It's possible that this derby might end without a winner, concluding in a 1-1 draw.
No comments
Betting Tips: St. Pauli - Hamburger
in last 5 away games (Bundesliga)..svg)
in last 8 away games (Bundesliga).
in 13 of last 14 games (Bundesliga).in 10 of last 11 games against Hamburger.in 10 of last 11 games (Bundesliga).in 9 of last 10 games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
