Nacional vs Progreso Prediction 23 August 2026
🔊 Nacional Montevideo are finishing the season on a run of inconsistent results and have been conceding regularly at home. Progreso come into the final round after a difficult campaign, with little left to play for. The contrast between the two sides is clear both in form and statistics: the hosts have frequently been involved in high-scoring games on their own ground, while the visitors have struggled badly for points and goals. With neither side having anything significant left to compete for, the pressure is off - and that could shape the nature of this match.
Head-to-Head
The last official meeting between the two sides took place on 02 August 2026 and ended 2-1. Here are the key stats from that match (Nacional Montevideo were the home side):
- Possession: 74% vs 26%;
- Corners: 10 vs 1;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 3.
📊 Nacional Montevideo and Progreso have met 23 times in official competition. The hosts have won 18 of those matches, Progreso have won four, and one ended in a draw. Nacional also hold the edge in goals - 47 to 18. On average, the two sides have combined for 1.39 goals in the first half and 1.43 in the second, giving an overall match average of 2.83 goals.
Head-to-head statistics Nacional - Progreso
Club Nacional Montevideo Team Overview
The team's most recent competitive match took place on in the Primera, with Racing Montevideo as the home side and Nacional Montevideo as the visitors. The match ended 2-0.
Match statistics (Nacional Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo):
- Possession: 48% vs 52%;
- Corner kicks: 5 vs 4;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 4 vs 4.
Nacional Montevideo have had a season marked by inconsistent results and a shaky defence. In their last five matches they won twice but lost three times, which reflects a lack of stability heading into the final stages of the tournament. Over their last ten matches, Nacional have won four times, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game - figures that point to difficulties at both ends of the pitch. At home, they have frequently been involved in high-scoring matches: the total has gone over 2.5 in six of their last seven home games in this Apertura season. Their average of 1.48 goals scored per home game across the full campaign is reasonable, but consistency in that department has been hard to come by.
Match Results: Club Nacional Montevideo
Progreso Team Overview
The visitors' most recent competitive match took place on in the Primera, with Progreso at home to Deportivo Maldonado. The match ended 0-2.
Match stats (Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado):
- Possession: 41% vs 59%;
- Corners: 5 vs 5;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 3 vs 3.
Progreso are finishing the season in some of the worst form in the league. Over their last five matches they have won just once, losing the other four. The picture looks no better across their last ten, where they have managed only two wins against eight defeats, averaging 0.7 goals scored per game. Defensively they are conceding well over a goal a match at 1.6, which highlights a team struggling at both ends. With nothing left to play for, even a single goal in attack may be the most Progreso can realistically offer at this stage of the season.
Match Results: Progreso
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home side - 2.04, away side - 0.78;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.83;
- both teams scored: all time - 12 times; at the home side's ground - 6 times.
Average total stats: Nacional Montevideo vs Progreso
- in the tournament: 2.83 vs 2.29;
- goals scored: 1.48 vs 0.75;
- first half: 0.61 vs 0.33;
- second half: 0.87 vs 0.42;
- Nacional Montevideo at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- Progreso away in the tournament - 0.67;
- last 10 matches: 0.9 (home - 1.17) vs 0.7 (away - 0.67).
- Nacional Montevideo have conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
Corners Prediction
Nacional Montevideo: Statistics
- Season: average total corners in the league - 6.52; at home - 7.42;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 6.4; at home - 6.5.
Progreso: Statistics
- Season: average total corners in the league - 4.17; away - 4;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 4.4; away - 4.33.
- Total Corners - Over 8.5 has landed in 8 of Nacional Montevideo's last 9 matches (Primera).
- Total Corners - Over 8.5 has landed in 7 of Progreso's last 8 matches (Primera).
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 23;
- both teams scored (all-time) - 12 times;
- at the home side's ground - 6 times.
Stats: Nacional Montevideo vs Progreso
- matches played this season: 15 vs 15;
- matches with both teams scoring (BTTS): 13 vs 10;
- Nacional Montevideo: BTTS at home - 6 (50%);
- Progreso: BTTS away - 5 (42%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS matches: 5 vs 5;
- Nacional Montevideo: BTTS at home - 4 (67%);
- Progreso: BTTS away - 3 (50%).
Correct Score Prediction
Most common scorelines (current season):
- most frequent scoreline in the competition: 0-1 (27/185, 14.6%);
- Nacional Montevideo at home most often finish matches: 1-2 (3/12, 25%);
- Progreso away most often play: 1-0, 2-0 (3/12, 25%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1-0 - 13.27% (odds 6.5)
2-0 - 11.16% (odds 6.5)
2-1 - 10.29% (odds 7.5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both sides go into the final round with nothing significant left to play for, but the recent statistics point to one consistent pattern - Nacional Montevideo concede regularly at home. The trend is clear: they let in at least one goal in 8 of their previous 9 matches, and their average goals conceded at home exceeds one per game. Progreso are highly inconsistent in attack and rarely score more than once, but the absence of any pressure means they can reasonably be expected to find the net at least once. We're predicting a 1-1 draw. The defensive frailty of the hosts and the relaxed mood of the visitors point to the same conclusion: our pick is Progreso Team Total - Over 0.5.
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Betting Tips: Club Nacional Montevideo - Progreso
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