Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia Prediction 23 July 2026
📢 Who comes out on top in one of the most high-profile ties of the Europa League second qualifying round? Qarabag and CSKA Sofia are regulars on the European stage and have both made it to the group stages of UEFA competitions before. Neither side will want to put themselves in a difficult position after the first leg.
Head-to-Head
📊 In recent years, Qarabag and CSKA Sofia have only faced each other in friendly matches. Their most recent encounter came in 2023, with the Azerbaijani side claiming a 1-0 victory.
Head-to-head statistics Qarabag - CSKA Sofia
Qarabag Team Overview
Qarabag last played an official match on in the first qualifying round of the Europa League against Vestri (3-0). Here’s how the stats broke down (Qarabag vs Vestri):
- possession: 73% vs 27%;
- corners: 13 vs 1;
- fouls committed: 6 vs 10;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 0;
- shots on target: 3 vs 0.
Qarabag are one of Azerbaijan’s most recognizable clubs. Since the 2013/14 season, they have missed out on the domestic title only twice. One of those rare occasions came last season, when Qarabag finished second, averaging 2.15 goals scored and just 0.82 conceded per match. As a result, Qarabag had to begin their European campaign not in the Champions League qualifiers - as is usually the case - but in the Europa League. Nevertheless, they made light work of their opening test, thrashing Iceland’s Vestri 6-0 on aggregate with identical 3-0 wins in both legs.
Match Results: Qarabag
CSKA Sofia Team Overview
CSKA Sofia’s most recent official fixture took place on in the Bulgarian First League, where they played out a goalless draw against Slavia. Here’s a breakdown of the key stats from that match (CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia):
- possession: 64% vs 36%;
- corners: 11 vs 2;
- fouls: 12 vs 13;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 7 vs 4.
CSKA Sofia are among Bulgaria’s most storied clubs, consistently finishing near the top of the league and representing the country on the European stage. Last season, they secured fourth place, averaging 1.31 goals scored and conceding 0.83 per match. Their ticket to the Europa League qualifiers came courtesy of a Bulgarian Cup triumph. In the first qualifying round, CSKA saw off Derry City with little difficulty, winning 5-3 on aggregate. Over the weekend, they kicked off the new domestic campaign with an away draw against Slavia.
Match Results: CSKA Sofia
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head:
- played - 1;
- home wins - 1, away wins - 0, draws - 0.
- CSKA Sofia cover the +1.5 handicap in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- CSKA Sofia cover the +1.5 handicap away in 7 of their last 8 matches.
Total Prediction
Average total stats: Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia
- in the tournament: 3 vs 4;
- goals scored: 3 vs 2.5;
- 1st half: 2 vs 1;
- 2nd half: 1 vs 1.5;
- Qarabag: at home in the tournament - 3;
- CSKA Sofia: away in the tournament - 2;
- last 10 matches: 2.3 (home - 2) vs 0.9 (away - 0.67).
- Qarabag score over 1.5 goals at home in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Corners Prediction
Qarabag: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 11; at home - 9;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.7; at home - 6.75.
CSKA Sofia: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 6, away - 6;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.7; away - 6.
- CSKA Sofia have taken over 3.5 corners in 5 matches in a row.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- most frequent score in the tournament: 0:0 (3/12, 25%);
- Qarabag at home most often finish: 3:0 (1/1, 100%);
- CSKA Sofia away most often play: 1:2 (1/1, 100%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 11.8% (odds 6.5)
2:0 - 11.05% (odds 7)
1:1 - 9.76% (odds 8.5)
⭐ Editors’ Prediction
Bookmakers see Qarabag as clear favourites heading into this clash. That assessment seems justified: last season, the team held their own against top European opposition and reached the Champions League knockout stage. CSKA are clearly outmatched in terms of quality, and with the first leg taking place in Azerbaijan, where Qarabag are traditionally dominant, the hosts look even stronger. Qarabag have scored at least twice in six of their last seven home games. Our main pick is Qarabag to score over 1.5 goals. We’re backing a 2-1 scoreline.
Betting Tips: Qarabag - CSKA Sofia
in last 6 games.
in 6 of last 7 Qarabag games.in 18 of last 19 CSKA Sofia away games.in 9 of last 10 CSKA Sofia games.
in 9 of last 10 Daniele Chiffi games.
in last 9 Qarabag games.in 10 of last 11 Daniele Chiffi games.in last 9 games.in 8 of last 9 home games.Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
