Dortmund vs Bayern Prediction 22 August 2026

🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

This is a high-profile fixture - Der Klassiker - but it's a Super Cup match at the start of the season, when neither side has fully hit their competitive stride yet. The referee appointed is Daniel Schlager, for whom this will be his first Super Cup. He has been officiating in the Bundesliga since 2018 and has taken charge of 104 matches. I'm not expecting any particularly rough play. That said, intense pressing and a high volume of midfield duels are almost inevitable. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at 1.56*.

⚽ Goals Prediction

The last three Bundesliga meetings between these sides produced 12 goals combined. Even though this is the first competitive match of the season, there are good reasons to expect goals in the Super Cup. Both clubs are only just getting their competitive campaigns underway, and neither Bayern nor Dortmund are at peak physical condition yet. That said, the presence of Kane, Olise and Guirassy makes scoring on both sides a fairly likely outcome. Dortmund's new signings have also been getting on the scoresheet in pre-season. Prediction: Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.44*.

🚩 Corner Kick Prediction

I wouldn't go for a high overall corners total here: at the start of the season, teams can be less intense than they are mid-campaign. That said, Bayern will likely dominate possession and rely more on positional play, which should give them an edge in corners as Dortmund sit deeper. My pick: Borussia Dortmund Team Total Corners - Under 5.5 at 1.75*. This bet has landed in 17 of the last 18 head-to-head meetings between these sides.

🚀 Player Stats Bet

The most logical option here is Harry Kane to Score. The Englishman has already returned to the squad and got his first minutes in the friendly against Heidenheim. Kompany is counting on him from the start in the Super Cup. Against Dortmund, as with almost any opponent, Kane tends to get enough space to shoot - particularly when Bayern spend long periods controlling the ball around the penalty area. Even in a relatively tight game, three or four attempts from the striker looks realistic. And a player of his quality doesn't need many chances to convert at least one. Odds: 1.63*.

😱 Risky Bet

Over the last 16 meetings, Borussia have beaten Bayern just once, drawn three times, and lost the other 12. That makes a Dortmund win a hard sell even as a speculative pick. A draw is also a rare and uncertain outcome in this fixture. Red cards don't come often in this derby either. Borussia have gone through significant changes, with a lot of young players coming into the squad who have rarely faced opposition of this level. On that basis, a heavy Bayern win is worth considering - Bayern Munich - Handicap -2.5 at 4.3*.

🎯 Reliable Bet

The most rational option here is to go through goals. Reliable bet: Bayern Munich to Score: Yes. Bayern have a formidable attack, and at least one of the Díaz-Kane-Olise trio is capable of finding the net against Bayer Leverkusen. Beyond those three, Kompany has quality options off the bench who can make a difference. Bayern have scored in 50 consecutive official matches - a strong argument for this bet. Odds - 1.28*.

👀 If the match doesn't go to plan

Even if Dortmund score first, I wouldn't abandon the bet on Bayern. The Bavarians are capable of turning up the pressure significantly in the second half, and having elite-level attackers gives Kompany several options to reshape the attack. If Bayern score first, things get harder for Dortmund. They'll have to open up, which is exactly the scenario that suits Munich. In that case, Bayern Munich Team Total - Over 2 goals at 1.72* is worth considering.

*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.