Chapecoense vs Flamengo Prediction 23 July 2026
🔊 Chapecoense take on Flamengo in a match that pits a relegation-threatened side against one of the league's top teams. The hosts are struggling at the start of the second half of the season - two wins in their last ten and a leaky defence make it hard to see things improving in the table. Flamengo have been consistent, though the gap to Palmeiras at the top has grown to the point where the title race is getting complicated. The main contrast here is quality and form, which makes the outcome fairly predictable.
Head-to-Head
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Chapecoense and Flamengo:
- 16 matches played;
- home wins: 2, away wins: 11, draws: 3;
- goals: 13 vs 33;
- average first-half total: 1.19, second-half: 1.69;
- average match total: 2.88.
Head-to-head statistics Chapecoense - Flamengo
Chapecoense Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in the Série A (Bahia at home, Chapecoense away). The match ended 2-0.
Match stats (Chapecoense vs Bahia):
- possession: 35% vs 65%;
- corners: 6 vs 10;
- fouls: 17 vs 17;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 2;
- shots on target: 2 vs 6.
Chapecoense are going through a rough patch: four defeats in their last five matches, with a draw being the only positive result. They returned to competitive action before Flamengo after the World Cup break to play a postponed Round 4 match against Bahia - and lost 0-2 under Rafaela Lacerda.
The defence looks shaky - Chapecoense are conceding close to two goals per game on average. There is some attacking output at home, though: they've scored in nine consecutive home matches. But the table tells a grim story. They're already nine points behind 19th-place Remo Belém, and 12 off the safety zone. A quick turnaround looks unlikely any time soon.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Flamengo Team Overview
The visiting team played their last match on in a friendly encounter (home team - Flamengo, away team - Olimpia Asuncion). The game ended with a 4-2 scoreline.
The match statistics were as follows (Flamengo vs Olimpia Asuncion):
- ball possession: 50% vs 50%;
- corners: 2 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 3;
- shots on target: 8 vs 5.
Since the managerial change in March, Flamengo have been chasing top spot in the championship. Leonardo Jardim's side sit on 34 points with a game in hand, while current leaders Palmeiras are on 41. By matchday 19, the red-and-blacks had already lost three times - in their title-winning season last year, they lost just five across all 38 matches.
Flamengo are averaging 1.82 goals per game, and their defence has been one of the tightest in the league - conceding under a goal a match on average. During the break, the club played four friendlies without a defeat: they started with a draw against Argentina's River Plate (2-2), then beat Swiss side Lausanne (2-0), Portuguese outfit Benfica (2-1) and Paraguayan club Olimpia Asunción (4-2).
Match Results: Flamengo
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 16;
- first-half wins for the home side - 2; for the away side - 2; draws - 4;
- average first-half total: 1.19;
- today's hosts average 0.38 goals in the first half, the away side - 0.81.
First-half stats: Chapecoense (home) vs Flamengo (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 9 vs 9;
- wins: 0 (0%) vs 4 (44.44%);
- losses: 2 (22.22%) vs 2 (22.22%);
- draws: 7 (77.78%) vs 3 (33.33%);
- average goals scored: 1.89 vs 1.44;
- average goals conceded: 1.22 vs 0.44.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 3 vs 3;
- losses: 3 vs 3;
- draws: 4 vs 4;
- average first-half total: 1.4 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.8) vs 0.6 (scored - 0.3, conceded - 0.3).
- Chapecoense have scored in the first half in 8 consecutive home matches.
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 16;
- home wins - 2, away wins - 11, draws - 3.
Statistics: Chapecoense vs Flamengo
- matches in the tournament: 18 vs 17;
- wins: 1 vs 10;
- win percentage: 6% vs 59%;
- losses: 11 vs 3;
- draws: 6 vs 4.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 2 vs 5;
- losses: 6 vs 2;
- draws: 2 vs 3.
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head matches between these teams (Serie A).
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap at home in 5 consecutive head-to-head matches between these teams.
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap in 13 of the last 15 matches.
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap at home in 6 consecutive matches.
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home team - 0.81, away team - 2.06;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.88;
- both teams scored: 8 times overall; 4 times at the home team's stadium.
Average total statistics: Chapecoense vs Flamengo
- in the tournament: 2.89 vs 2.76;
- goals scored: 0.94 vs 1.82;
- in the 1st half: 0.33 vs 0.82;
- in the 2nd half: 0.61 vs 1;
- Chapecoense: home matches in the tournament - 1.44;
- Flamengo: away matches in the tournament - 1.67;
- last 10 matches: 1.3 (home - 2.25) vs 1.5 (away - 1.2).
- Flamengo has scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 5 consecutive away head-to-head matches between these teams.
Corners Prediction
- Flamengo has fewer than 6.5 corners in 11 of the last 12 away matches (Serie A).
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 16;
- both teams scored overall - 8 times;
- at the home team's stadium - 4 times.
Statistics: Chapecoense vs Flamengo
- matches played in the tournament: 18 vs 17;
- matches this season where both teams scored (BTTS): 11 vs 8;
- Chapecoense: BTTS at home - 7 (78%);
- Flamengo: BTTS away - 5 (56%).
Last 10 matches:
- matches with BTTS: 4 vs 3;
- Chapecoense: BTTS at home - 2 (50%);
- Flamengo: BTTS away - 2 (40%).
Correct Score Prediction
Frequent score statistics (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (27/182, 14.8%);
- Chapecoense most often finishes home matches with: 1:1 (2/9, 22.2%);
- Flamengo most often finishes away matches with: 1:1, 1:2 (2/9, 22.2%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:2 - 10.57% (odds 8)
0:1 - 10.2% (odds 6)
1:1 - 9.69% (odds 7.5)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Flamengo approach the match as clear favourites due to the difference in quality, current form and tournament objectives. Chapecoense are in a difficult situation: the team have lost four of their last five matches, struggle defensively and continue fighting for survival. However, the home factor allows the hosts to remain competitive - they have scored in nine consecutive home games, but against one of the league leaders this may not be enough.
The reigning champions confirmed their readiness after the break, avoiding defeat in all four friendly matches, while their consistent attack and reliable defence make them one of the most balanced teams in Serie A. Considering the difference in squad quality, motivation and current condition of both sides, the most logical option is Flamengo to win. Predicted score - 1:2.
No comments
Betting Tips: Chapecoense - Flamengo
in 8 of last 9 games (Serie A)..svg)
in 14 of last 15 games against Flamengo.in 12 of last 13 games against Flamengo (Serie A).in 6 of last 7 home games against Flamengo.in last 17 games (Serie A).in last 8 home games (Serie A).in 15 of last 17 games.in 8 of last 9 games (Serie A).in 7 of last 8 away games (Serie A).
in 13 of last 14 Chapecoense games.in 11 of last 12 Chapecoense games (Serie A).in 8 of last 9 Chapecoense home games (Serie A).in 20 of last 22 Flamengo games.in 17 of last 18 Flamengo games (Serie A).in 13 of last 14 Flamengo away games (Serie A).in 10 of last 11 Flamengo away games.in 14 of last 15 games against Flamengo.in last 13 games against Flamengo (Serie A).in last 6 home games against Flamengo (Serie A).in last 12 games (Serie A).in 8 of last 9 home games (Serie A).in 13 of last 14 away games (Serie A).in 8 of last 9 games (Serie A).in 7 of last 8 away games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
