Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction 21 April 2026
🔊 What is the mental state of "Los Blancos" after their painful exit from the Champions League? It's almost certain that Álvaro Arbeloa will not remain as Real Madrid's head coach next season due to unsatisfactory results in the second half of the season. Even a triumph in the domestic league now seems like pure fantasy. In the 33rd round of La Liga, Real face Alavés, who are desperate for points in their fight for survival. Bookmakers heavily favor the home side, giving them nearly tenfold odds.
Head-to-Head
📊 Alaves have been a relatively comfortable opponent for Real Madrid. The "Galacticos" have consistently defeated the "Bean Destroyers" in their last 8 head-to-head encounters. Interestingly, at the "Santiago Bernabeu," Alaves have managed only two victories in the entire history of their matchups - during the 1999/00 and 2020/21 campaigns. Let's note the average scoring rate for each side over the last 10 head-to-head games: the "Galacticos" at 2.6 and the "Bean Destroyers" at 0.7.
Head-to-head statistics Real Madrid - Alaves
Real Madrid Team Overview
⚪ Los Blancos are enduring a challenging phase this season. Firstly, the Madrid club is rapidly losing any chance of triumphing in the national championship. Currently, Real Madrid trail the league leaders by 9 points. It's equally important to consider the Galacticos' average performance metrics-2.1 goals scored per game with 0.94 conceded. Secondly, their exit from the Champions League has definitively dashed Álvaro Arbeloa's hopes of securing the head coach position at Real next season.
📌 In the last round of La Liga, Real Madrid dropped crucial points against Girona (1-1). Despite significant territorial dominance, Arbeloa's side struggled to convert their chances. Just look at the expected goals ratio: 2.31 to 0.52 in favor of Los Blancos. Midweek, Real Madrid fell short against Bayern Munich (3-4), becoming victims of numerous individual errors. The top scorer for Real Madrid in this season's La Liga is Kylian Mbappé, with 23 goals in 26 appearances.
Match Results: Real Madrid
Deportivo Alaves Team Overview
⚪ In recent rounds, Alaves have been involved in thrilling matches. Over their last three games, the "Bean Destroyers" have found the back of the net nine times. Despite the team's progress under Quique Flores, they are in dire need of victories. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, Alaves have managed just one win. Currently, the "Glorious" sit 17th in the league table, only one point clear of the relegation zone.
🔵 Last weekend, Alaves were once again part of a goal-fest, drawing 3-3 with Real Sociedad. The standout performer was Lucas Boye, the Argentine forward who equalized in the 97th minute to secure a point for the club. Quique Flores employs an aggressive counter-attacking style, focusing on rapid breaks after regaining possession. Lucas Boye is Alaves' top scorer in the current La Liga season, with 11 goals in 25 appearances.
Match Results: Deportivo Alaves
Latest news
Real Madrid
🎤 Real Madrid's head coach Álvaro Arbeloa shared his thoughts on the heartbreaking 4-3 defeat to Bayern Munich in the second leg of the Champions League quarter-final: "The players are crushed by the manner of our loss. I congratulate Bayern, but we would have preferred to be defeated differently. That inexplicable sending-off, which no one can understand, overshadowed all our hard work with a single refereeing decision. I believe the referee didn't even remember that Camavinga already had a card until the opponents reminded him. It's a double mistake, and it ruined a fantastic match. It pains me that we won't be taking home our sixteenth trophy this year. As for my future, I'm not concerned. I'm a club man and will accept any decision from the management. I've done everything possible to support my players, but some things are beyond control."
❌ Among Real Madrid's injured players are Raúl Asensio (illness), Thibaut Courtois (thigh injury), and Rodrygo (knee injury).
Deportivo Alaves
📰 Since Quique Flores took charge at Alavés, the team has undergone significant changes in their average performance metrics. The "Glorious" are now showing remarkable progress in their attacking play, but at the same time, they are facing disastrous defensive issues. On average, Alavés score 1.13 goals per game while conceding around 1.48. The Spanish manager prefers to deploy a 4-4-2 tactical formation, which often shifts to a five-defender setup during defensive phases.
❌ Among the unavailable Alavés players are Facundo Garcés (suspension), Carlos Portesoni (muscle injury), and Abderrahmane Rebbach (suspension).
⚽ Goal Prediction
In 8 out of Real Madrid's last 9 matches, at least three goals were scored. A similar trend is evident in 4 of Alaves' previous 5 games. Looking at the average scoring from their last 10 head-to-head encounters: Los Blancos average 2.6, while Alaves average 0.7. Given Alaves' recent attacking form, we anticipate a high-scoring affair. Our editorial pick is over 3 goals total.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Both clubs aim to limit corners conceded: Real Madrid average 3.5, and Alaves 4.8. Alaves are not known for their wing play, preferring a direct approach to goal. Furthermore, in 7 of their last 8 meetings, there were no more than 10 corner kicks. Our editorial choice is under 10.5 corners.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
We highlight Real Madrid's French forward Kylian Mbappe, who has scored 23 goals in 26 appearances. Despite not being the most clinical finisher, he can create scoring opportunities out of thin air. Consider this bet: Kylian Mbappe to score the first goal at odds of 2.6*.
😱 Risky Bet
Alaves have struggled defensively in recent matches, despite their attacking prowess. With Real Madrid eager to bounce back after their Champions League exit, expect a strong performance from the hosts, particularly from Kylian Mbappe, their main offensive threat. Our editorial recommendation is Kylian Mbappe to score in both halves at odds of 4*.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
Their exit from Europe's top competition might impact Real Madrid's mentality negatively. In such a scenario, Alaves' determination to remain in La Liga could shine through. Only grit and the opponent's struggles might aid the visitors. We suggest the following: Alaves to win with a +2 handicap at odds of 1.65*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers
Editorial Prediction
In the current scenario, Álvaro Arbeloa's side have only one sensible option left: to give their all in the remaining league matches and fight for the slim chance to overtake Barcelona in the standings. On paper, a home clash with Alavés seems like a walk in the park for Los Blancos, supported by their head-to-head history and the current form of both teams. Our editorial team anticipates a high-scoring game, predicting a final score of 3-1. The key bet is on Real Madrid to win with a -1.5 handicap.
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Betting Tips: Real Madrid - Deportivo Alaves
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