Sturm vs Hearts Prediction 21 July 2026
🔊 Sturm and Hearts meet for the first time - and it's straight into European football. Their opening match of the season comes in the second qualifying round of the Champions League at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. The Austrians, who finished second in the Bundesliga, are the favourites. But the Scottish side, who came in right behind Celtic, are no easy out.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have never met on a football pitch - this is their first encounter.
Head-to-head statistics Sturm - Hearts
Sturm Graz Team Overview
The Austrian club go into this home match as clear favourites, though they're missing a key player. Amadi Camara has been ruled out with a thigh injury sustained in training. The Malian forward, who spent last season on loan at Nantes, was central to coach Fabio Ingolitsch's plans and will miss both legs of the qualifier. On the positive side, important midfielder Otar Kiteishvili is expected to return.
The Austrian runners-up had a decent pre-season. They started slowly but finished with three straight wins - though the quality of opposition deserves some context. A regional league side, the fourth-placed team in the Japanese J-League and a ninth-place finish in the Polish Ekstraklasa - that's not Hearts-level competition. Still, worth noting the form of 20-year-old French talent Axel Kayombo, who scored four goals across the wins over Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5-1) and Pogoń (1-0).
Match Results: Sturm Graz
Heart of Midlothian Team Overview
The Scottish club have their own squad issues ahead of the trip to Austria - UEFA regulations this time. The restrictions on homegrown players in the squad forced head coach Wouter Vrancken to leave ten first-team players at home. The manager himself is new, by the way - Derek McInnes left for Rangers after a remarkable previous season. Lawrence Shankland, the captain and top scorer, went the same way, as did Cammy Devlin, the midfield leader. And that's far from all the losses.
On the plus side, Amadou Ba-Si made the Champions League squad - he scored twice in a recent friendly against Rayo Vallecano (2-1) and arrived from Rouen for €200,000. Hearts also picked up a couple more players and signed six free agents. So this is already a very different team from the one that came close to taking the title from Celtic last season. The pre-season results have been encouraging, but look at their last nine away matches and the picture is less rosy - just two wins and five defeats.
Match Results: Heart of Midlothian
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
In the first official match of the season, with both sides not yet at full fitness and trying to make an impression, the midfield battle should be particularly fierce. Referee Gergő Bogár and his Hungarian crew have a busy evening ahead. Just look at the average bookings total across the last ten official matches for each side: Sturm average 5.4 yellows per game, Hearts 5.1. Expect a rough, physical contest, we're backing over 3.5 yellow cards.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Pre-season results only tell you so much, but Sturm kept a clean sheet in just 1 of their last 5. Coming to visit is a Hearts side that's changed significantly - but they're still Scottish runners-up. They know how to scrap and create chances. It's no coincidence that Both Teams To Score landed in 6 of their last 7 official matches. We're expecting goals from both sides here too, backing Both Teams To Score (Yes) at 1.61*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Sturm should see more of the ball at home. But Hearts are a British side with plenty of height - set pieces are their bread and butter, especially on a tough away trip. Both teams should be pushing the corner count up, and we're backing total corners over 9.5 at 1.90*. Their averages over the last ten official matches back that up: Sturm average 10.3 corners per game, Hearts 10.5.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
This is the first competitive match of the season for both sides, so we wouldn't expect anything spectacular. That said, the hosts have home support, a more settled squad and better cohesion - they should be the more active side. Getting at least a small advantage before the trip to Scotland matters for them. Hearts have gone through too many changes, and their away form was already a concern last season. For all those reasons, we see a Sturm win as the most likely outcome, 2:1.
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Betting Tips: Sturm Graz - Heart of Midlothian
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