Atalanta vs Sturm Prediction 21 January 2025

🔊 Can Atalanta secure an early playoff spot in the Champions League? To do so, they just need to defeat Sturm in the seventh round, which the team will host in Bergamo at the "Atleti Azzurri d’Italia" stadium. The Austrian team has lost its chances for a spot in the top 24, though they were initially viewed skeptically. Therefore, the favorite in this matchup is obvious. Nonetheless, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

The opponents met last season in the Europa League group stage. Despite a sending-off early in the second half, Sturm managed to equalize in their home match (2:2). In Bergamo, Atalanta had a significant playing advantage but only scored one goal, which secured the victory.

🔵 Atalanta

Atalanta is having an excellent season. Not long ago, they had a winning streak in Serie A and were contending for the Scudetto. However, January started poorly for Gian Piero Gasperini's team. First, they lost to Inter in the Italian Super Cup (0:2). More concerning is that they have no victories in three consecutive league matches. Last weekend, Atalanta lost to Napoli (2:3). Now there are already seven points between them and their rivals in the standings. Moreover, Atalanta has a similar gap from Inter in terms of points lost. In this situation, the team needs to switch focus to the Champions League, where things are going quite well. They are in 13th place but only two points behind the top eight. Notably, Atalanta started the tournament without conceding goals in four consecutive matches. They first failed to keep a clean sheet against Young Boys (6:1). In the last round, they suffered a frustrating defeat to Real Madrid (2:3). In the upcoming match, Scamacca will not play due to an injury that has kept him off the field this season. The participation of Cuadrado and Kossounou is also in question.

⚫ Sturm

Sturm is the reigning champion of Austria and holder of the national cup. However, the coach who led them to success left to manage Hoffenheim. Consequently, Erencan Yardimci, who was on loan from the German club, returned to Germany. Sturm also parted ways with Mika Bierith, who moved to Monaco. These two losses in attack could affect the team's performance. Nevertheless, they are again leaders in the Austrian championship, though their lead over the nearest pursuer is only three points. Sturm managed to earn as many points in six Champions League matches by defeating Girona at home (1:0). In the upcoming match, Martin Kern and Alexander Borkovic will not play due to injuries.

⚽️ Prediction on Goals

Atalanta scores less than Inter in Serie A. However, their closest rival is 11 goals behind them. On the other hand, the team concedes more than one goal on average. In the Champions League, they are more reliable defensively but also score quite a bit. Therefore, the match against Sturm could be quite high-scoring. In this situation, we propose a bet on total goals over 2.5, which has played out in 6 of Atalanta's last 7 home matches.

🚩 Prediction on Corners

Atalanta has an advantage in corners in the Champions League - 5.5 against 3. In matches involving them, there are an average of 9.2 corners. The team approaches the upcoming match with a trend where there have been no more than 10 corner kicks in nine consecutive home matches. Therefore, a bet on total corners under 10.5 emerges.

📝 Match Prediction

Atalanta is the favorite for the upcoming match and should respond somehow to their Serie A setbacks. They face an opponent of lower class and insufficient motivation. Therefore, a victory for the hosts could be quite large, for example, with a score of 4:1.

We have no doubt about Atalanta's success. In January, they couldn't overcome Udinese, Juventus, and Napoli. However, it's hard to make serious complaints about Bergamaschi's play. Therefore, as a key bet, we propose Atalanta to win with a handicap of (-1.5).