Independiente Medellin vs Vasco Da Gama Prediction 22 July 2026
🔊 Independiente Medellín and Vasco da Gama meet in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana knockout stage at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín. The Colombian side get to use home advantage before the return leg in Rio de Janeiro, while the Brazilians will want something to take back with them. The two sides arrived here by different routes: Medellín dropped into the Sudamericana after their Copa Libertadores campaign, while Vasco da Gama came through the Sudamericana group stage.
Head-to-Head
📊 These two sides have never met before.
Head-to-head statistics Independiente Medellin - Vasco Da Gama
Independiente Medellin Team Overview
Independiente Medellín's last official match was in the Copa Colombia, a 2-1 win over Cúcuta Deportivo. Here's how the stats looked (Independiente Medellín vs Cúcuta Deportivo):
- possession: 65% vs 35%;
- corners: 12 vs 3;
- fouls: 19 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 1;
- shots on target: 4 vs 1.
The Colombian club finished third in Group A of the Copa Libertadores and dropped into the secondary continental competition. Back in April, the club parted ways with head coach Alejandro Restrepo - Sebastián Botero, who manages Medellín's under-20 side, stepped in as interim.
In their last ten matches, Independiente have won five, drawn two and lost three. Both teams scored in four of Medellín's last five games.
From July 13, Luis Amaranto Perea took charge - he had been an assistant to Colombia national team head coach Néstor Lorenzo at the recently concluded World Cup. The team's biggest strength is at home. At Atanasio Girardot, they scored in 12 of their last 13 matches, picking up eight wins, one draw and four defeats across that run.
Match Results: Independiente Medellin
Vasco da Gama Team Overview
Vasco da Gama's last official match was in the Brazilian Série A, a 0:1 away defeat to Vitória. Here are the stats from that game (Vasco da Gama vs Vitória):
- possession: 50% vs 50%;
- corners: 2 vs 3;
- fouls: 15 vs 12;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 0;
- shots on target: 3 vs 6.
In the Copa Sudamericana group stage, Vasco finished second in Group G with 10 points - three wins, one draw and two defeats, with a positive goal difference of 10:6. The Brazilian club also went through a managerial change over the summer. Renato Gaúcho was appointed head coach on March 4th. In his 22 matches in charge, he won nine, drew five and lost seven.
From July 10th, the team has been managed by Pedro Emanuel, who previously worked as head coach of Saudi club Al-Fayha. His debut didn't go well: after the World Cup break, Vasco played their first match of the second half of the season - a 19th-round Série A fixture - and lost to Vitória 0:1.
The Giant of Colina have a deeper squad and regularly play against clubs from different South American footballing traditions. Worth noting: Vasco's last five matches in the Copa Sudamericana all went over 2.5 goals. The Rio club also have a serious problem on the road - three straight away defeats, conceding eight and scoring two.
Match Results: Vasco da Gama
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
South American knockout ties tend to be intense affairs, especially in the first leg. Medellín need to stop Vasco from taking an advantage into the return match, while the Brazilians have to handle the pressure of playing away.
In their last ten matches, Medellín players picked up 26 yellow cards combined - 2.6 per game on average. Vasco collected 23 bookings over the same span, averaging 2.3 per match. The stakes in a first knockout leg are considerably higher than a regular league round, so our pick is total yellow cards over 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Independiente Medellín don't tend to put up big numbers against stronger opposition, but at home they're bolder - the Colombians scored in 12 of their last 13 matches at Atanasio Girardot. Vasco da Gama have defensive issues, but their attack is a step above and they can punish mistakes. That said, an open, high-scoring game isn't what this match is likely to be: it's the first leg, and both sides will have the second match in mind.
Medellín's numbers this season are fairly modest - 1.37 goals scored per game, 1.26 conceded - which points to a cautious style. The best option here is total goals under 3.5, which landed in 15 of the Colombians' last 16 home matches. The odds are 1.24*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Medellín at home will look to control the game and push forward. The home advantage, combined with the need to build a lead before the second leg, should push them toward Léo Jardim's goal more often. Over their last two matches, Independiente earned 25 corners combined. The upcoming opponent is a different level of resistance - Vasco will likely hit back on the counter, which can generate set pieces of their own.
In that kind of game, both sides should rack up enough attacking play to hit the number. Our pick is total corners over 8.5 at 1.61*. This has landed in Medellín's last five matches.
*Odds are approximate and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Independiente Medellín have solid numbers at home in Colombia, but it's unclear how they'll perform after the break and under a new manager. Vasco also changed their coach, but the Brazilian side have a stronger squad and more experience in international football. That said, a trip to Medellín has traditionally been a tough ask for Brazilian clubs.
The first leg will likely be a cautious affair - the hosts won't want to concede before the return match, and the visitors need to keep their chances alive. Given both teams' stats, total goals under 2.5 is the most logical call here. Predicted score: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Independiente Medellin - Vasco da Gama
in 21 of last 23 games.in 12 of last 13 home games.
in 15 of last 16 Independiente Medellin home games.in 11 of last 12 Independiente Medellin games.
in 8 of last 9 Piero Maza Gomez games.in last 5 Vasco da Gama games (Copa Sudamericana).
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