Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction 19 April 2026
π Can Nottingham, who have reached the Europa League semi-finals, keep their composure in the battle for survival? In the 33rd round of the Premier League, the Forest face Burnley at the City Ground. This is a match where the cost of mistakes is measured not just in points, but in future status in the top flight. The hosts have been revitalized under VΓtor Pereira and are unbeaten in six matches, but the Clarets, clinging to a slim chance of salvation, will arrive in Nottingham ready to fight for every inch of the pitch.
Head-to-Head
π In the current decade, the teams have faced each other only four times, three of which were in the Premier League. Every match ended with both teams finding the back of the net. Last September at Turf Moor, they played to a 1-1 draw, with both sides scoring by the 20th minute.
Head-to-head statistics Nottingham Forest - Burnley
Nottingham Forest Team Overview
Holding the 16th spot with 33 points and just a three-point cushion from the relegation zone is a position that demands unwavering focus. The "Foresters" are navigating an incredibly busy April: on Thursday, they edged past Porto with a narrow 1-0 victory, securing their place in the Europa League semifinals where they'll face Aston Villa. Incidentally, in their last Premier League outing, the "Reds" drew 1-1 with the "Villans," extending their unbeaten run in the league to four matches.
The 3-0 triumph over Tottenham before the international break was a breath of fresh air for the "Foresters," allowing them to pull away from the "Spurs" in the standings. Pereiraβs squad plays organized, disciplined football and, in our view, deserves to remain in the Premier League. However, their home form continues to be an issue-no wins in their last eight matches at the City Ground.
Match Results: Nottingham Forest
Burnley Team Overview
Burnley are desperately trying to turn their season around, but nothing seems to be working. Sitting in 19th place, 12 points adrift from the safety of 17th, the verdict is all but sealed, though not yet executed. Scott Parker's side have managed just one league victory since November and are currently enduring a seven-match winless streak. Their last triumph was an incredible comeback against Crystal Palace (3-2), which unfortunately failed to provide the expected momentum.
A 2-0 defeat to Brighton in the previous round further highlighted the systemic issues plaguing the Clarets. Burnley have conceded 63 goals in 32 matches-the worst record in the Premier League-and have picked up just 9 points on the road, failing to win in 10 of their last 11 away games. Moreover, they have been unable to keep a clean sheet in 16 consecutive away fixtures, meaning they have yet to achieve a shutout on their travels this season.
Match Results: Burnley
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Nottingham Forest
π Vitor Pereira on reaching the European semi-finals: "I'm pleased with this result, but there's no time to celebrate - we have another important match ahead. Honestly, I have a fantastic team, fantastic guys. They are strong in spirit and character. They deserve this success, just like our fans," said the Portuguese coach.
β The home side's squad situation is concerning. Murillo, Chris Wood, and Callum Hudson-Odoi picked up injuries in the match against Porto, putting their participation in the upcoming fixture in doubt. Hudson-Odoi is likely to miss the game due to a muscle injury, but Wood and Murillo are expected to be available. Jon Victor, Nicolo Savona, and Willy Boly remain sidelined with knee injuries.
Burnley
π Scott Parker at the pre-match press conference: "We fully understand the situation we're in and the challenge we're facing. It's absolutely monumental. I'm the biggest realist and as honest as possible. We needed to win the last four or five games, but we didn't manage that, and now those opportunities are dwindling."
β The visitors have significant absences as well. Josh Laurent is serving a three-match suspension following a red card in the game against Fulham (1-3). Zeki Amdouni is nearing a return from an ACL injury but remains doubtful. Additionally, Josh Cullen, Hannibal Mejbri, Connor Roberts, and Jordan Beyer are all sidelined with knee issues.
π¨ Yellow Card Prediction
The match between relegation rivals will be officiated by Thomas Kirk, a referee averaging 3.8 cautions per game this season. Although his Premier League sample size is small, with just four matches under his belt, Kirk is a highly sought-after official in the Championship, boasting an impressive average of 4.1 yellow cards per game. Considering what's at stake for both teams, betting on over 2.5 yellow cards seems more than justified. Especially since this bet has hit in five consecutive Nottingham Forest matches and in six of Burnley's last seven away Premier League games.
β½ Goal Prediction
Under VΓtor Pereira, Nottingham Forest have become much more solid defensively, but their issues with scoring at home persist. Burnley have conceded in 16 consecutive away matches, yet they are also capable of finding the net. Still, the most logical choice appears to be under 3.5 goals. The hosts will be fatigued after a European Thursday, and the visitors are likely to adopt a defensive approach, so a goal fest seems unlikely. Furthermore, the last seven home matches for the "Tricky Trees" in the Premier League have been low-scoring affairs.
π© Corner Prediction
Burnley rank among the league's bottom teams for corners, earning just 3.72 per game this season. Nottingham look much stronger in this department, especially at home, where they average around 6.38 corners per game. However, fatigue is a significant factor, so we'll lean towards a "low" outcome here as well. We choose to bet on under 10.5 corners, which has been successful in six of Nottingham's last seven Premier League matches.
Editor's Prediction
In a match where one team is riding a wave of six unbeaten games and the other teeters on the brink, logic suggests backing the hosts. However, Nottingham's home form in the Premier League raises significant concerns, as does the physical state of their players following the clash with Porto. Meanwhile, the Clarets, despite their dire league position, have shown resilience against the Forest and scored in three of their last four away matches against them. Therefore, a draw at City Ground seems a reasonable prediction, with an expected final score of 1-1, leading to a bet on Burnley to win with a +1.5 handicap, which has been successful in the last five head-to-head encounters.
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Betting Tips: Nottingham Forest - Burnley
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