Qarabag vs Chelsea Prediction 5 November 2025
🔊 What will be the outcome of the Champions League clash between Qarabag and Chelsea, who sit side by side in the group standings? Both teams have accumulated the same number of points, but the English side leads the Azerbaijani club on goal difference. Both squads are capable of delivering a goal-scoring spectacle. Just recall the matches where the "Horsemen" faced Benfica or the "Blues" took on Ajax. Will their head-to-head encounter at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium be just as thrilling? Let's delve into our editorial's prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 The teams clashed twice during the group stage of the 2017/18 Champions League campaign. Both encounters ended in dominant victories for Chelsea (6-0; 4-0). Qarabag, having collected just two points, finished at the bottom of the group. The English side also fell short of glory, exiting at the round of 16.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Qarabag Team Overview
The 3-1 away defeat to Athletic in the third round of the Champions League ended Qarabag's eight-match unbeaten streak. This loss also dropped the team from 6th to 13th place in the main stage of Europe's premier club competition. The statistics from that encounter don't fully reflect the events on the pitch, as the Azerbaijani side scored first, and it wasn't until the 70th minute that the Spaniards took the lead. Nonetheless, the setback slightly dented the "Horsemen's" self-belief, as they went on to draw their next domestic league match against Shamakhi (0-0), a team from the lower half of the table. However, Gurban Gurbanov's squad quickly bounced back, confidently defeating Imishli 2-0 in their subsequent fixture.
In the latest Champions League round, Leandro Andrade finally broke his goal drought. He was Qarabag's top scorer in the tournament qualifiers with four goals. Andrade netted the fastest goal for the "Horsemen" in Europe's top club competition, scoring against Athletic Bilbao in the first minute. However, the current standout performer for the team is Abdellah Zoubir. The 33-year-old Frenchman has impressive stats over the last nine matches, with 4 goals and 1 assist. This includes a goal and an assist in the first two rounds of the Champions League group stage.
Match Results: Qarabag
Chelsea Team Overview
The Blues appear to be finding the stability they need. Sure, one might question this assertion by glancing at their results and spotting a loss to Sunderland (0-2), but that defeat stands as their only setback in the last seven matches. Among their vanquished opponents are notable wins against Liverpool (2-1) and Tottenham (1-0). The narrow margins shouldn't be a concern; just take a look at the stats from their away game against Spurs, where the Pensioners left the hosts with no chance. Enzo Maresca needs only to fine-tune his team's finishing to replicate the emphatic victory over Ajax in the Champions League (5-1).
João Pedro, after a blistering start to the season (2 goals and 3 assists in the first four Premier League fixtures), went seven games without scoring. The striker struggled to regain his form, dealing with minor injuries and serving a suspension due to a red card. However, in the recent match against Tottenham, he finally broke his silence. João's goal was decisive for Chelsea, helping them climb to sixth place in the league. Moisés Caicedo, who has also hit his stride, provided the assist for the Brazilian. The midfielder has been involved in three goals in his last six appearances (2 goals and 1 assist), despite starting two of those games from the bench.
Match Results: Chelsea
Latest news
Qarabag
🎙 The head coach of Qarabag shared his thoughts on the defeat to Athletic in the third round of the Champions League. "We continue to fight. Athletic can press for the full 90 minutes, and we felt more pressure than in the match against Benfica. In our league, we don't face such intense pressure, and they are more accustomed to it in the Spanish championship. Athletic are one of the fastest attacking teams. The opponent forces you into mistakes. Despite playing well in attack, we couldn't finish the match strongly," said Gurban Gurbanov.
❌ Camilo Duran's participation in the match is in doubt - the Qarabag starter couldn't finish the game against Athletic due to injury. However, the Colombian has appeared in two league matches since, although the coach is clearly saving him for the clash against Chelsea. In total, after that unfortunate Champions League encounter, the forward has spent 104 minutes on the field.
Chelsea
🎙 Chelsea's head coach praised two of his players who secured the team's victory over Tottenham in the latest Premier League round. “Moisés is showing just how good he is. He's top-notch. The best thing about him is his humility; he's a great guy and ready to help everyone. He and Rodri are the best defensive midfielders in the world. João has never been a problem. The issue with João is that he doesn't train every day due to his issues. He's not 100% ready for every game. João will score goals. He was very, very good in the match against Liverpool. Now that Delap is back, we have more options. We've been without Palmer and two months without Liam. We need attacking players,” said Enzo Maresca.
❌ Chelsea's injury list is gradually clearing compared to the start of the season. However, several key players remain sidelined: Levi Colwill, Dário Essugo, Cole Palmer, and Benoît Badiashile.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for the match is Sebastian Gishamer from Austria. He averages 2.4 yellow cards over his last five matches. Comparing the levels of opposition in the Azerbaijani and English leagues is pointless, so let's turn to the teams' statistics in the Champions League. Qarabag's matches are significantly cleaner: four cards in three rounds compared to Chelsea's 15. Qarabag are not known for their rough play. Even after two away games, Gurban Gurbanov's side have received no cautions. We believe that a disciplined defense doesn't necessarily lead to a high number of yellow cards. We trust the "Horsemen" and are betting on Qarabag under 1.5 total yellow cards.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
This is only Qarabag's second appearance in the Champions League, but Gurban Gurbanov's team are seasoned European competitors. For instance, last season the "Horsemen" played in the Europa League, while Chelsea competed in a lower-tier tournament. There's no doubt about the scoring abilities of the English side. However, it's worth noting that the Azerbaijanis have scored in 6 out of their last 8 European matches, including last year's Europa League. Therefore, we suggest considering a bet on both teams to score (yes).
🚩 Corner Prediction
Qarabag provide solid resistance against near-top teams. The level of opposition in the Champions League continues to rise, yet their possession time has not significantly dropped. Over three rounds, the "Horsemen" have averaged just 45% possession. This allows them to be dangerous, particularly on set pieces. In 8 of their last 9 Champions League matches, the Azerbaijanis have taken at least three corners. While Chelsea adapt to playing away, Qarabag could very well earn more than 2.5 corners.
Editor's Prediction
We've already mentioned how thrilling the matches involving these two teams have been in the current Champions League campaign. Chelsea's driving force is their youthful squad and the rotation strategy implemented by Enzo Maresca. Every player, especially those not usually in the starting lineup, gives their all when given a chance, leading to results such as the emphatic win against Ajax (5-1). This was evident even in last season's Conference League performances. Including this current European campaign, at least three goals have been scored in six out of eight matches involving the "Blues." Chelsea's defense is far from perfect, and Qarabag's attacking quality should be enough to secure at least one goal, particularly on home turf. Therefore, there's a high probability that the total goals will exceed 2.5. We give the edge to the more renowned visitors (3-1).
Betting Tips: Qarabag - Chelsea
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Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
