Ajax vs Benfica Match Prediction
🔊 In the 5th round of the Champions League, unexpected underdogs Ajax and Benfica will face off. There are plenty of contenders for the bottom two spots in the table, especially among the debutants of Europe's premier club competition, but these future opponents occupy them. Both teams are on a streak of four consecutive losses, with the Amsterdam side also possessing the worst goal difference. Which club will break their run of misfortune at the Johan Cruyff Arena? Even a draw could be seen as a success, as both sides would finally secure their first points. We’ll assess the odds of these outcomes in our editorial prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 These clubs share a rich history of clashes in the Champions League. Their first encounter was during the group stage of the 2018/19 campaign. The match in Amsterdam ended with a victory for the home side (1-0), while in Lisbon, the teams settled for a draw (1-1). They crossed paths again in the 2021/22 Champions League knockout stage. Benfica advanced to the quarter-finals with an aggregate score of 3-2.
Head to Head
Ajax Amsterdam Team Overview
Ajax are struggling on all fronts this season. The only competition where the "Sons of the Gods" remain unbeaten is the KNVB Cup, and that's only because they haven't started their campaign yet. Before the international break, the Amsterdam outfit managed just one win in eight matches. This poor run led to the dismissal of head coach John Heitinga. Under his leadership, Ajax failed to secure a single point in the Champions League, languishing at the bottom with the worst goal difference (-13). In the Eredivisie, things aren't as dire, with Ajax sitting in fourth place. However, they trail league leaders PSV by 14 points.
During the international break, Fred Grim took over as interim head coach for Ajax. However, this change has yet to yield results for the Amsterdam side. In their first match post-break, they suffered a 1-2 defeat to Excelsior, who are 14th in the Eredivisie.
Match Results: Ajax Amsterdam
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
The appointment of José Mourinho at Benfica has yet to yield the expected results. True, under the Portuguese manager, the Eagles remain unbeaten in the Primeira Liga. However, former coach Bruno Lage was dismissed following a Champions League defeat to Qarabag (2-3). This suggests that bringing in 'The Special One' was largely driven by hopes of improving performances in the premier European competition. Yet, the Lisbon side have failed to secure a single point in the tournament, suffering four consecutive defeats and currently sitting in 35th place.
The closest the Portuguese came to their first victory in this season's Champions League was in their recent home clash with Bayer Leverkusen. The 1-0 scoreline in favor of the visitors does not reflect the match's dynamics. Benfica launched more frequent and dangerous attacks (21 shots with an xG value of 1.75 compared to 7 shots with 0.68 xG), but conceded in the 65th minute to Patrik Schick after a defensive scramble. Despite this, the Eagles approach their upcoming fixture with a positive mindset. Following the international break, they advanced to the Round of 16 in the Portuguese Cup by defeating third-tier Atlético (2-0).
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Latest news
Ajax Amsterdam
🎙 Reports have emerged that Ajax have reached out to Erik ten Hag about a potential return to the club following the dismissal of John Heitinga. Negotiations are ongoing, but ten Hag has not yet made a final decision. Previously, he declined to continue discussions with Wolverhampton representatives. For now, Fred Grim is at the helm. Here's what Grim has to say about his future with the club: "I've been informed that I'll be leading the team until the winter break. How certain is that? Well, this is football, we all know how it goes. We're assuming it will last until the winter break. After that, we'll see."
❌ Branco van den Boomen and Steven Berghuis have been sidelined with injuries for quite some time. However, Ajax's squad issues don't end there. The participation of three players in the upcoming match is uncertain: Anton Gaaei, Lucas Rosa, and Owen Wijndal. All of them were unable to play full matches in the team's last two games.
Benfica Lisbon
🎙 Despite advancing to the last 16 of the Portuguese Cup, Benfica's head coach had harsh words regarding his team's performance. "From the very first minute, our actions were utterly ridiculous. The first half was so poor that during halftime, I told the players I would substitute four of them-I couldn't make five changes because I can't play 45 minutes without a substitution in reserve-but I wanted to replace nine. For me, as a coach, the desire to make nine substitutions indicates things were really bad. Not in the sense that I feared elimination or not winning the match, but in my understanding of professionalism, some things are hard to accept. At halftime, we didn't substitute nine players, but four, and those changes brought an entirely different attitude. They helped the team play with much more aggression, intensity, and dynamism," explained José Mourinho.
❌ This season, three players have yet to make an appearance on the field: Bruma, Alexander Bah, and Manu. All of them face long recoveries from severe injuries. The international break also left its mark on Benfica. Belgian Dodi Lukebakio broke his ankle during the match against Liechtenstein.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by the main referee Sven Jablonski from Germany. Over his last 20 Bundesliga matches, he has averaged 3.4 yellow cards. Since José Mourinho's arrival, Benfica have become a more aggressive side in terms of physical play. In 10 out of their last 13 games, the total number of yellow cards exceeded 3.5, as was the case in their last two head-to-head encounters with Ajax. Given that both teams desperately need their first points in the Champions League, the intensity promises to be high. Our prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
Ajax's matches tend to be more thrilling compared to Benfica's. In their last 10 games, the Dutch side's goal total averaged 3.7, while for the Portuguese side it was 2.4. However, it's worth noting the distribution of goals in Benfica's matches depending on the halves. On average, 1.6 goals are scored in the second half, compared to 0.8 in the first half. Notably, Ajax have conceded after the break in six consecutive games. Therefore, we suggest considering the bet: Benfica to score in the second half.
🚩 Corner Prediction
With the new coach, Ajax's main formation remains unchanged. In his first match, Fred Grim used a 4-2-3-1 setup, which John Heitinga alternated with a 4-3-3. The strategy relies on speedy flanks, so Ajax are expected to earn a significant number of set-pieces from corners. In their last five home matches, the Amsterdam side averaged 4.2 corners per game. It's highly likely that in the upcoming match, the total corners for the hosts will be over 3.5.
Editorial Prediction
Ajax and Benfica rank among the bottom five for scoring in this season's Champions League campaign, with the Amsterdam side netting just once and the Portuguese team only slightly better with two goals to their name. To put that into perspective, they share the same tally as Almaty's Kairat and Prague's Slavia-clubs of a considerably lower caliber. This dismal record is mirrored in their performances across other competitions, with Ajax's last 11 out of 12 home games and Benfica's last 11 away matches all seeing a goal total under 3.5. We believe a goal-fest at the Johan Cruyff Arena is unlikely, leading us to back a bet on under 3.5 total goals. We give a slight edge to Benfica, who have been more successful domestically (1-0).
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Betting Tips: Ajax Amsterdam - Benfica Lisbon
in 8 of last 9 games.in 17 of last 19 away games.
in last 27 Ajax Amsterdam games.in last 26 Ajax Amsterdam home games.in 7 of last 8 Benfica Lisbon games.
in 6 of last 7 Sven Jablonski games.in 11 of last 12 Ajax Amsterdam home games.in last 11 Benfica Lisbon away games.in 7 of last 8 Benfica Lisbon games (UCL).in last 14 games.in last 7 home games.
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