Sparta vs Excelsior Prediction 17 May 2026
🔊 Both Sparta and Excelsior are desperate for a win to keep their Eredivisie ambitions alive. The Rotterdam side, who will host this fixture, are chasing a European spot and currently sit just two points off the pace. Excelsior, meanwhile, have a three-point cushion above the relegation zone, but they trail Volendam on head-to-head results-the very team occupying the playoff threshold. Which club is more likely to achieve their objectives? Our editorial team breaks down the odds and offers a well-founded prediction.
Head-to-Head
The last official encounter between the teams took place on 14 September 2025 and ended with a scoreline of 0:1. Here's a comparative breakdown of that match (home team - Excelsior):
- ball possession percentage: 53% vs 47%;
- corner kicks: 7 vs 2;
- fouls: 11 vs 8;
- yellow cards: 3 vs 1;
- shots on target: 4 vs 7.
📊Statistical preview of official matches between the teams Sparta and Excelsior:
- played 25 matches;
- number of wins for the home team - 8, for the away team - 11, draws - 6;
- number of goals - 39 against 41;
- average total in the 1st half - 1.44, in the 2nd half - 1.76;
- average total goals in the match - 3.2.
Head-to-head statistics Sparta - Excelsior
Sparta Team Overview
The team's most recent official match took place on as part of the Eredivisie tournament (home team - Twente, away team - Sparta). The match concluded with a scoreline of 4:0.
Here's the game statistics (Sparta vs Twente):
- ball possession: 43% vs 57%;
- corner kicks: 2 vs 9;
- fouls: 8 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 0;
- shots on target: 1 vs 13.
Sparta are experiencing a significant downturn both in terms of performance and results. Over their last five Eredivisie fixtures, the Rotterdam side have failed to secure a single win, suffering three defeats and settling for two draws. Stretching back across their previous ten matches, Sparta have managed just one victory. Defensively, they remain vulnerable, conceding an average of more than two goals per game (2.2). Their attack is also struggling to find form, averaging only 0.8 goals per match over the past ten rounds-well below their season average of 1.15.
Match Results: Sparta
Excelsior Team Overview
The away team played their last official match on as part of the Eredivisie tournament (home team - Excelsior, away - Volendam). The match concluded with a scoreline of 1:1.
Here are the match stats (Excelsior vs Volendam):
- ball possession: 67% vs 33%;
- corner kicks: 5 vs 0;
- fouls: 10 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 3;
- shots on target: 2 vs 2.
Excelsior have made the most of their opportunities in the second half of the Eredivisie season, putting together a four-match unbeaten run as they battle to stay clear of the relegation zone. During this stretch, the team have averaged 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game, highlighting a certain equilibrium between attack and defence. Excelsior currently sit three points above the relegation playoff zone, but there’s no room for complacency-Volendam, who are 16th, hold the head-to-head advantage.
Match Results: Excelsior
Match Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- Games played - 25;
- Home wins - 8, Away wins - 11, Draws - 6.
Stats: Sparta vs Excelsior
- Matches in the competition: 33 vs 33;
- Wins: 12 vs 9;
- Win percentage: 36% vs 27%;
- Losses: 14 vs 16;
- Draws: 7 vs 8.
Last 10 matches:
- Wins: 1 vs 2;
- Losses: 6 vs 5;
- Draws: 3 vs 3.
- Sparta have failed to win in 11 of their last 12 Eredivisie matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head (average total):
- Home side - 1.56, Away side - 1.64;
- Overall H2H average - 3.2 goals per match;
- Both teams scored: all-time - 19 times; at Sparta’s ground - 9 times.
Average goals stats: Sparta vs Excelsior
- Tournament average: 2.94 vs 2.85;
- Goals scored per game: 1.15 vs 1.21;
- First half: 0.45 vs 0.61;
- Second half: 0.7 vs 0.61;
- Sparta at home in the competition - 1.19;
- Excelsior away in the competition - 1.25;
- Last 10 matches: Sparta - 0.8 (home - 1.25) vs Excelsior - 1.5 (away - 1.6).
- Sparta have scored under 2.5 goals in 14 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings.
- Sparta have scored under 2.5 goals at home in 9 of the last 10 H2H encounters.
- Sparta have scored under 2.5 goals at home in 6 of the last 7 H2H Eredivisie matches.
- Sparta have scored under 2.5 goals in 24 of their last 25 Eredivisie games.
- Sparta have scored under 2.5 goals in each of their last 14 matches.
- Sparta have scored under 2.5 goals at home in their last 12 Eredivisie fixtures.
Corner Prediction
Sparta: Statistics
- This season - average corners per match: overall - 4.58; at home - 4.75;
- Last 10 matches: average corners - 4.3; at home - 4.25.
Excelsior: Statistics
- This season - average corners per match: overall - 4.15, away - 4.13;
- Last 10 matches: average corners - 4.1; away - 3.8.
- The total has gone under 10.5 corners in each of the last five Eredivisie head-to-head games between these sides.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- Games played - 25;
- Both teams have scored all-time - 19 times;
- At Sparta’s ground - on nine occasions.
Stats: Sparta vs Excelsior
- Games played in the competition: 33 vs 33;
- Season matches where both teams scored (BTTS): Sparta - 14, Excelsior - 21;
- Sparta BTTS at home - 7 (44%);
- Excelsior BTTS away - 12 (75%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS matches: Sparta - 5, Excelsior - 7;
- Sparta BTTS at home - 2 (50%);
- Excelsior BTTS away - all five (100%).
- Sparta have both scored and conceded at home in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
- Excelsior have both scored and conceded away from home in five consecutive Eredivisie fixtures.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results (current season):
- The most frequent scoreline in the competition is 1-1 (34/297, or 11.4%);
- Sparta’s most common home results: 1-1, 2-0 (3 out of 16, or 18.8%);
- Excelsior’s most common away result: 2-1 (3 out of 16, or 18.8%).
Based on statistical analysis and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top three outcomes:
1-1 - 9.65% (odds: 6.89)
2-1 - 9.16% (odds: 7.1)
1-0 - 8.01% (odds: 8.69)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
With Sparta enduring a five-match winless run and managing just one victory in their last ten outings, the team are clearly struggling for form. Excelsior, despite sitting low in the table, have shown greater consistency: their ability to balance goals scored and conceded gives them a realistic shot at securing at least a draw-enough to steer clear of the Eredivisie relegation play-offs without unnecessary drama. The key factor here is Sparta’s prolonged slump, underlined by the fact that they have failed to win 11 of their last 12 league fixtures. Given these circumstances, it makes sense to back the visitors. Our prediction: Excelsior will avoid defeat.
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Betting Tips: Sparta - Excelsior
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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