Arouca vs Tondela Prediction 16 May 2026
🔊 Arouca head into this fixture sitting higher up the table, currently in tenth place and with little left to play for this season. The team have been coasting through the final rounds with no real objectives at stake. Tondela, meanwhile, are fighting for survival in seventeenth. If the visitors manage to claim all three points here, they will likely avoid direct relegation from the top flight.
Head-to-Head
The most recent official meeting between these sides took place on 03 January 2026 and ended in a 3-1 result. Here’s a comparison of the key stats from that match (Tondela were the home team):
- Possession: 29% vs 71%;
- Corners: 2 vs 9;
- Fouls: 12 vs 7;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 3 vs 4.
📊 Statistical preview of official head-to-head meetings between Arouca and Tondela:
- 10 matches played;
- The hosts have claimed 4 wins, the visitors 3, with 3 draws;
- Total goals scored: 14 for each side;
- Average first-half goals: 1.2, second-half goals: 1.6;
- Average total goals per match: 2.8.
Head-to-head statistics Arouca - Tondela
Arouca Team Overview
Their most recent official fixture took place on in the Primeira Liga, with Gil Vicente hosting Arouca. The match ended in a 1-3 defeat for the home side.
Here’s a breakdown of the key match stats (Arouca vs Gil Vicente):
- Possession: 55% vs 45%;
- Corners: 2 vs 6;
- Fouls committed: 17 vs 13;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 6 vs 5.
Arouca have stood out this season for their unpredictable yet sharp performances at home. Across 33 matches, they have claimed 11 victories but conceded more goals than they've scored, averaging 1.33 goals per game while allowing 1.91 at the other end. Over their last ten league fixtures, Arouca have picked up four wins but suffered five defeats, highlighting their ongoing struggles with consistency both in defence and attack. Recent form also paints a mixed picture: two wins from their last five outings suggest a tendency towards open matches and frequent defensive lapses. Their home games regularly deliver plenty of goals.
Match Results: Arouca
Tondela Team Overview
The visitors last played an official match on in the Primeira Liga, facing Tondela away from home. The contest ended in a 2-0 victory for Tondela.
Here’s a breakdown of the key statistics (Tondela vs Moreirense):
- Possession: 40% vs 60%;
- Corners: 1 vs 8;
- Fouls committed: 14 vs 9;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 3 vs 2.
Tondela currently sit second from bottom and are under immense pressure to deliver a win. Throughout the season, they have struggled to find any real consistency, securing just six victories in 33 rounds. Their attacking output is modest, averaging only 0.79 goals per game, while conceding 1.58 on average-a clear indicator of defensive frailties over the campaign. In their last ten outings, the visitors have managed just two wins, alongside four defeats and four draws-a run that hardly inspires confidence in their survival hopes. Over their most recent five matches, Tondela have picked up two wins, but have also suffered two losses and drawn once, underlining their ongoing struggle to strike the right balance between attack and defence even as the season reaches its critical stage.
Match Results: Tondela
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 10;
- First-half wins at home for hosts - 1; for visitors away - 0; number of draws - 3;
- Average first-half total: 1.2;
- Today's home team scores on average 0.7, while the visitors net 0.5.
First-Half Stats: Arouca (home) vs Tondela (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 16 vs 16;
- wins: 4 (25%) vs 2 (12.5%);
- losses: 6 (37.5%) vs 6 (37.5%);
- draws: 6 (37.5%) vs 8 (50%);
- Average goals scored: 1.44 vs 1.13;
- Average goals conceded: 0.88 vs 0.81.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- wins: 1 vs 1;
- losses: 2 vs 2;
- draws: 7 vs 7;
- Average first-half total: 0.9 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.5) vs 0.9 (scored - 0.3, conceded - 0.6).
- Arouca scored in the 1st half in last 5 games against Tondela (Primeira Liga).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 10;
- home team wins - 4, away team wins - 3, draws - 3.
Statistics: Arouca vs Tondela
- matches played in the tournament: 33 vs 33;
- wins: 11 vs 6;
- win percentage: 33% vs 18%;
- losses: 16 vs 17;
- draws: 6 vs 10.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 4 vs 2;
- losses: 5 vs 4;
- draws: 1 vs 4.
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.4, the guests - 1.4;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.8;
- both teams scored: overall - 7; at the home team's field - 2.
Statistics: Arouca vs Tondela
- average total in the tournament: 3.24 vs 2.36;
- average total goals scored: 1.33 vs 0.79;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.52 vs 0.3;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.82 vs 0.48;
- Arouca: average total at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- Tondela: average total away in the tournament - 0.81;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.3 (home - 1.75) vs 0.9 (away - 0.75).
- Over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of last 8 Arouca home games (Primeira Liga).
Prediction on corners
Arouca: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3.64; at home field - 4;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 3.2; at home field - 3.5.
Tondela: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3.91, away - 3.88;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 3.9; away - 2.75.
- Arouca have taken under 4.5 corners in 7 of last 8 home games (Primeira Liga).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 10;
- both teams scored all-time - 7 times;
- on the home team’s field - 2 times.
Statistics: Arouca vs Tondela
- number of matches played in the tournament: 33 vs 33;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 18 vs 11;
- number of BTTS matches for Arouca at home - 9 (56%);
- number of BTTS matches for Tondela away - 5 (31%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 6 vs 3;
- BTTS matches for Arouca at home - 3 (75%);
- BTTS matches for Tondela away - 1 (25%).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 0:1 (30/297, 10.1%), 1:1 (30/297, 10.1%);
- Arouca at home most often finish matches: 0:2 , 0:4 , 1:0 , 1:2 , 2:2 , 3:2 (2/16, 12.5%);
- Tondela away most often play: 3:0 (4/16, 25%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 11.91% (odds 6.5)
1:2 - 8.63% (odds 8)
0:1 - 8.31% (odds 8)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Both teams come into this fixture with clear defensive issues and a lack of consistency. Arouca have been involved in high-scoring games at home, with over 2.5 goals landing in seven of their last eight matches on their own turf. Tondela, meanwhile, are under pressure in the standings and have been forced to play more aggressively, but their season-long defensive lapses mean they concede more than a goal per game. Even though the visitors’ average goal tally is modest, their need to push forward could open up opportunities for both sides. Taking into account Arouca’s recent form and the high-scoring trend in their home fixtures, backing over 2.5 goals looks like the most well-founded prediction for this clash.
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Betting Tips: Arouca - Tondela
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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