Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 17 October 2026
🔊 Werder Bremen host Paderborn in the sixth round of the Bundesliga. The hosts have picked up eight points from five matches and established themselves in the top half of the table, while the newly promoted side are struggling badly in front of goal. Werder have scored ten goals but conceded ten as well, whereas Paderborn have managed just three. Bremen are particularly dangerous at home, where they have already scored three goals on two separate occasions. Paderborn need to improve their finishing, otherwise containing an opponent who has hit their stride will be difficult.
Head-to-head: recent encounters offer no clear indication
📊 The last competitive meeting between the sides took place in October 2024 in the DFB-Pokal and ended in a 1:0 win for Werder. In August 2026 the two teams met in a friendly, drawing 2:2, but the result of a pre-season game should not be directly applied to league football. More relevant to the upcoming match is the current form of both sides: Werder are scoring regularly and creating chances, while Paderborn have so far been unable to maintain consistent output. The head-to-head record provides some context, but the key argument remains the difference in their current numbers.
Head-to-head statistics Werder Bremen - Paderborn
Werder’s potent attack makes up for their defensive frailties
Werder sit seventh with eight points and a goal difference of 10:10. Over five matchdays they have won twice, drawn twice and lost once. They have scored in every match, and have looked particularly convincing at home. In the last round they showed character by coming back from two goals down away at Borussia Dortmund. That result matters not just in terms of the table - it confirms that Werder are capable of maintaining their attacking output even in difficult situations.
According to the official Bundesliga website, Werder have registered 64 shots, a pass accuracy of 85% from open play and 692 sprints across five matchdays. With an average possession figure of 44%, the team do not look to control games through short passing but prefer to move the ball quickly and exploit space. Their 3,182 high-intensity runs reflect a high tempo of movement off the ball. The downside of that style is vulnerability when possession is lost: Werder have already conceded ten goals, so their attacking edge does not always guarantee a comfortable finish.
Their home record is particularly telling. In two matches at the Weserstadion, Werder have scored six times, finding the net against opponents with different styles of play. Paderborn are lower in the table and have had problems with defensive stability, so the hosts should find opportunities to press through the flanks and play quick combinations around the box. If Werder maintain their intensity and do not become overly cautious after scoring the first goal, they have a good chance of scoring more than once again.
Match Results: Werder Bremen
Paderborn: Finishing woes emerge as their main stumbling block
Paderborn sit 15th with four points and a goal difference of -4. After five matches, they have one win, one draw and three defeats. The main problem is not just the number of goals conceded but also their lack of cutting edge: Paderborn have scored in only one of their five league matches. Even when they do get into attacking positions, converting chances has proved difficult.
The statistics do not suggest the team are entirely passive, though. Paderborn have had 69 shots, average 49% possession and complete 82.1% of their passes. Their high-intensity run and sprint numbers also indicate they can sustain a high tempo. The problem comes in the final phase: three goals from that volume of shots points to poor finishing and difficulties finding good positions in the box. Against Werder, simply reaching the final third regularly will not be enough - they need to create better-quality chances.
The visitors' defence does not look watertight either. If Werder quickly start delivering crosses from wide and getting their midfielders into the box, the visiting defenders will be under constant pressure. To have any hope of taking points, Paderborn need not only to improve their finishing but also to stop the hosts from attacking freely after winning the ball back.
Match Results: Paderborn 07
Latest news
Werder Bremen
❌ Felix Agu, Skelly Alvero, Salim Musah, Moussa Ndiaye, Justin Njinmah, Jens Stage and Keke Topp are all unavailable for Werder. Senne Lynen's participation remains in doubt. The absences in midfield and attack are particularly notable: without Stage and Njinmah, the options for pressing and moving the ball forward are reduced, so the coaching staff need to maintain a balance between attacking activity and defensive discipline.
Paderborn 07
❌ Paderborn continue to be without Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Timur Gayret, Marcel Hoffmeier and Sebastian Klaas. These absences could continue to make things harder for the visitors, particularly if Werder are able to impose a high tempo from the opening minutes.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Werder have picked up six yellow cards across five matchdays, while Paderborn have seven. These are relatively moderate figures, so picking a high total based purely on the teams' disciplinary records alone isn't warranted. An additional factor is the appointment of Robert Schröder: in his two Bundesliga matches this season, four and five yellow cards were shown respectively. The sample is still small, but it does support the case for a moderately high number of bookings.
Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5. Tight midfield battles and Paderborn's need to contain the hosts' quick attacks could lead to tactical fouls. The referee's averages and those of both teams make this line more appealing than a higher threshold.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Werder have scored ten goals in five rounds and found the net in every match. At home, they have already put six goals past opponents across two games. Paderborn have conceded seven times, three of which came away at Dortmund. The visitors' poor finishing does not necessarily mean a low-scoring match: Bremen are capable of generating goals on their own, with an attacking quality advantage and home support behind them.
Prediction: Werder Bremen Team Total - Over 1.5 goals. Two home matches with three goals scored in each, combined with Paderborn's defensive frailty, create the right conditions for the hosts to score at least twice. The odds are 1.62*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Werder's last five matches produced the following total corner counts per game: 11, 9, 13, 4 and 12. The 8.5 threshold was exceeded four times. Over the same period, Paderborn's matches produced totals of 12, 11, 10, 9 and 13 - at least nine corners in all five games. This suggests that matches involving both sides can generate a decent number of set-piece situations, even when scoring is not particularly high.
Prediction: Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.56*. Paderborn's statistics are especially convincing, and Werder's expected territorial dominance should support the overall total. The risk lies in the possibility of an early home lead and a drop in tempo after the break.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Werder look the more likely winners thanks to a more consistent attack, strong home results and a better conversion rate. Paderborn score too infrequently to count on getting a result against a side that has already found the net ten times in five rounds. Werder's ten goals conceded mean dangerous moments from the visitors cannot be ruled out entirely, but the home side should hold the initiative throughout. Final selection: Werder to win. Correct score prediction: 2:0.
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Betting Tips: Werder Bremen - Paderborn 07
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