Milan vs Benfica Prediction 16 September 2026
📢 A match between Milan and Benfica would not look out of place in the Champions League, yet the reality is that these two sides meet in the opening round of the Europa League league phase. Both clubs will surely see this tournament as a genuine opportunity to challenge for the trophy, but the draw has brought them together straight away, meaning at least one of them will begin their European campaign with a points deficit. The occasion is given added weight by San Siro, where Milan will be looking to show they can set the terms on home soil.
🔁 This prediction is updated on matchday. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 Milan and Benfica have not met each other in a competitive match in the last 15 years.
Head-to-head statistics Milan - Benfica
Milan Team Overview
🔴 Milan had a very good run last season, holding second place for a long stretch, but the team unexpectedly fell apart in the spring - winning just two of their final eight matches. The most painful moment came in round 38 against Cagliari, when the Rossoneri lost at home (1-2), which ultimately cost them a top-four finish and a Champions League place. That is why Milan now find themselves in the second-tier European competition.
⚫ In the new campaign, Milan have made a decent start under their new coaching staff - two wins and two draws. Last weekend, the team came from 2-0 down away at Lazio (2-2), who had been perfect up to that point. The first half was poor not just because of the two goals conceded, but in terms of overall quality as well. After the break, though, the Rossoneri were a completely different side and dominated the match entirely - 72% against 28% in possession, 9-1 in shots, 3-0 in clear-cut chances - so the comeback looked fully deserved. Milan could well have taken all three points, but they were unable to finish the job.
Match Results: Milan
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
🔴 Benfica were so impressive last season that they went the entire 34-match Portuguese league campaign unbeaten. Even so, the club finished third - largely because of the sheer number of draws, 11 in total across the season. As a result, they entered the Europa League rather than the Champions League, and had to begin their campaign as early as the second qualifying round. That said, they came through without any real difficulty, knocking out St Gallen (6-2 on aggregate), Hearts (7-2) and Aarhus (6-2) in succession.
⚪ In the league, the team made an almost perfect start. They did draw at home with Académico de Viseu in the first round (2-2), but then won five matches in a row. With 16 points, Benfica sit second in the table. Last weekend they beat Gil Vicente 3-1 at home, though they found themselves behind from the opening minutes. The win only came late on - the team struggled considerably despite dominating throughout, and it was not until the 87th minute that Pavlidis converted a penalty to seal it.
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Latest news
Milan
✅ Milan have no injury or availability concerns ahead of the first round of Europa League fixtures.
🔁 Update - 16 September, 4:32 UTC:
- Luka Modrić may start on the bench. According to Rúben Amorim at his press conference, it is important for the coaching and medical staff to manage the Croatian's workload carefully. According to Sky Sport, his place in the starting XI will go to Yunus Musah or Ardon Jashari. Adrien Rabiot could also miss out on a starting berth.
🔁 Update - 16 September, 11:42 UTC:
- Italian outlet La Gazzetta dello Sport suggests that Amorim will field a relatively experimental attacking line. According to the newspaper, Gonçalo Ramos will again play as the striker, with Alphadjo Sissé and Omari Hutchinson behind him. Another potential surprise is Filippo Terracciano appearing in the back three. In recent matches, Mario Gila has been playing in defence alongside Strahinja Pavlović and Koni De Winter.
Benfica Lisbon
❌ Benfica have just one confirmed absentee. Alexander Bah is continuing his recovery from a shoulder injury and is expected to return around mid-October.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Milan: Maignan - De Winter, Pavlović, Gila - Chukwueze, Modrić, Rabiot, Estupiñán - Loftus-Cheek, Cissé - Gonçalo Ramos.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Benfica: Soares - Banjaqui, Araújo, Lenglet, Dahl - Barrenechea, Leandro Barreiro - Silva, Prestianni, Schjelderup - Pavlidis.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Benfica have been a treat for fans of high-scoring football lately: at least three goals have been scored in 16 of their last 17 matches. Both sides have also been in confident attacking form at the start of this competition, Benfica especially, who have been consistently scoring around three goals per game on their own. Total Goals - Over 2.5 at 1.77* looks like one of the most logical options here.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Attractive football and plenty of goals don't always go hand in hand with a high corner count. Milan are a good example: no more than nine corners were recorded in 11 of their last 12 matches. Worth noting too is their meeting with Lazio, where just seven corners were taken despite a fairly busy game. On that basis, Total Corners - Under 9.5 at 1.85* is worth considering here as well.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Milan play a fairly physical game - after four Serie A rounds, their average stands at two yellow cards per match. Against Benfica's quick and technical players, they will likely need to foul their way out of trouble even more often. We're backing Milan Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Vangelis Pavlidis has carried his habit of hitting the ground running into the new season and has found a way to contribute to a Benfica goal in almost every match. The only exception was the second leg against Aarhus (3-1), where the Greek went 74 minutes without a goal involvement. At San Siro, Benfica's attacking threat will depend heavily on him, so a bet on Pavlidis to Score or Assist at 2.07* looks an interesting option.
😱 Risky Bet
Benfica matches almost always invite expectations of plenty of goals - the Portuguese play with attacking intent and often allow opponents to do the same. Milan have also been inconsistent so far: capable of creating a lot going forward, but far from error-free at the back. For those who like a risk, Total Goals - Over 4.5 at 5.45* is worth a look.
🎯 Safe Bet
For a more conservative option, Milan to Score at 1.19* is available. The Italians have scored in at least seven consecutive matches. Failing to find the net at San Siro in a game like this would seem rather unlikely.
👀 If the Match Goes Against the Script
Despite all the signs pointing towards an open, high-scoring game, a cautious scenario can't be ruled out entirely. Milan and Benfica are well aware of each other's quality, and in a match like this one mistake could prove very costly. If the opening spell passes without a goal, both teams will likely tighten up and become reluctant to leave themselves exposed. In that case, Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 2.20* is worth considering.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The bookmakers make Milan favourites, but writing off Benfica would be a mistake. The Lisbon side have plenty of European experience and regularly cause problems for opponents at the highest level. Given the visitors' excellent form, the Rossoneri should not expect an easy night. We are confident both teams will be going all out for the win, so goals at both ends seem likely - all the more so given that Both Teams to Score - Yes has landed in 6 of Milan's last 7 matches. That is our main selection. Expected score: 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Milan - Benfica Lisbon
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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