Malawi vs Egypt Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 17 November 2026
🔊 Malawi host Egypt in the return fixture of the fourth round of qualifying for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations. The first meeting took place on 13 November in Cairo and ended in a heavy win for Egypt. The teams now meet at Bingu Stadium in Lilongwe, where the hosts need to make amends for their heavy defeat. Egypt top Group B with seven points, level with Angola, while Malawi sit third with three. The gap to the leading pair is already four points, so picking up points is crucial for the hosts.
Egypt have won their last three matches
📊 The last three competitive meetings between Malawi and Egypt have all ended in wins for the North African side. In March 2023, Egypt first won 2-0 at home before thrashing Malawi 4-0 in Lilongwe. Their next meeting, on 13 November 2026, ended with an even more emphatic 5-0 win. Egypt have therefore scored 11 goals and conceded none in the last three matches.
Head-to-head statistics Malawi - Egypt
Malawi: heavy defeat ahead of the return leg
Malawi won their opening qualifier against South Sudan (2-1), but then lost to Angola (1-3) and Egypt (0-5). As a result, Callisto Pasuwa’s side have dropped to third in Group B, with three points and a goal difference of 3:9. Their defence is particularly concerning: they have conceded eight goals in the last two rounds. Against Egypt, the defenders made several serious mistakes that their opponents capitalised on in the first half.
Malawi now play at home, where they should show more initiative. Even so, making up five goals against opponents of this calibre will be extremely difficult. The hosts need at least to avoid another heavy defeat, but that will require a significant improvement in how their lines work together. In attack, much will depend on Richard Mbulu and Babatunde Adepoju.
Match Results: Malawi
Egypt: Ali Maher's confident start
Egypt head into the return fixture in an excellent position in the standings. They have taken seven points from three matches, with two wins and one draw. After a goalless draw with Angola, Egypt thrashed South Sudan 5-0 and then beat Malawi by the same scoreline. Notably, they have yet to concede a goal in qualifying, while scoring ten.
Ali Maher has made a particularly good start, with the match against Malawi his first in charge of the national team. Nasser Maher, Omar Marmoush and Mohamed Hany scored in the previous match, while Mohamed Salah netted twice. Egypt looked convincing both in build-up play and when capitalising on their opponents’ mistakes. Even away from home, they will have the edge in individual quality, while their positive goal difference allows them to feel comfortable in the standings.
Match Results: Egypt
Latest news
Egypt
⭐ Mohamed Salah became the national team's all-time leading scorer. He reached 70 goals, overtaking Hossam Hassan (69 goals), who was sacked as the team's head coach a week ago.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
In the first meeting, the referee showed four yellow cards: one to an Egypt player and three to Malawi players. In the return fixture, the hosts will have to compete more actively for the ball and break up their opponents' attacks more often. Their position in the standings does not allow them to simply defend for all 90 minutes. Therefore, Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5 is worth considering.
⚽ Goals prediction
The first meeting was high-scoring: Egypt scored five goals, three of them in the first half. Malawi will now play at home and try to make amends for the heavy defeat. Given their gap to the group's top two teams, the hosts are unlikely to be able to rely solely on defensive tactics. This could give Egypt more opportunities for quick attacks. Even away from home, the visitors are capable of scoring several times again. For a goals bet, we are considering Total Goals - Over 2.5. The odds are 1.74*
🚩 Corners prediction
Malawi won seven corners in the first match, while Egypt won six. Despite the heavy defeat, the hosts occasionally reached the opposition penalty area and created opportunities for set pieces. At home, Pasuwa’s side should involve their wide players more often, especially if they need to come from behind. Malawi Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 looks an interesting option.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Egypt have a clear advantage over Malawi in terms of squad quality and attacking play. The emphatic win in their first meeting confirmed the gap between the two national teams, while Egypt’s three clean sheets in three qualifying matches further strengthen the visitors’ position. Malawi will have to open up to try to close the gap on the leaders, which could once again cause problems in defence. Main prediction: Egypt - Handicap -1.5. Correct score prediction: 0-3.
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Betting Tips: Malawi - Egypt
in 5 of last 6 away games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).
in last 12 games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).in last 11 away games.in 7 of last 8 games.in last 6 away games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).
in 7 of last 8 games.in 6 of last 7 home games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).in 5 of last 6 away games (Cup of Nations, Qualification).in 28 of last 29 games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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