QPR vs Derby Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 14 October 2026
🔊 Derby County are in the relegation zone and under serious pressure early in the season, while Queens Park Rangers are sitting in the upper reaches of the table with a chance of pushing for automatic promotion. Despite the difference in their league positions, both sides come into this match on the back of poor runs: the hosts have won just once in their last five games, while the visitors have gone six matches without a win. In that context, the finer details of how the game plays out take on added importance - set-piece statistics, at the very least.
The head-to-head history doesn’t indicate a clear favorite.
Queens Park Rangers lost 2-3 to Derby County in their Championship meeting, despite having 23 shots to Derby's 12 and winning the xG battle 2.87 to 1.06. The contrast in shots on target was particularly stark - 12 to 3 in QPR's favour, yet all three of Derby County's efforts on target resulted in goals.
📊 Across 33 official meetings, Derby County have won 13 times and Queens Park Rangers 11, with nine draws. The goal difference is almost level: 35-34 in Derby County's favour.
Head-to-head statistics QPR - Derby
Queens Park Rangers: performances worthy of Championship leaders
In their last Championship match, Queens Park Rangers drew 1-1 away at West Ham. They led at half-time but were pegged back, and were outshot 7-12 while managing just 35% possession.
QPR remain in the upper reaches of the Championship table, but their recent form raises questions. In their last five matches they have won just once, losing the other four, with that sole positive result coming on the back of three consecutive defeats. Across ten matches, QPR have averaged 1.2 goals scored and fewer than one conceded per game. Their motivation remains clear: they are close to the automatic promotion places and could cut the gap to the leaders with a positive result.
Match Results: Queens Park Rangers
Derby County: battling to escape the relegation zone
Derby County's previous Championship match saw them draw 1-1 with Wrexham at home, despite leading at half-time. The visitors had more shots - 13 to 10 - and outperformed the hosts in xG: 1.59 to 0.80.
Derby County sit second from bottom and need to close the gap on their rivals to climb out of the relegation zone. They have gone six matches without a win, losing three and drawing two of their last five. The problems are most visible in defence - they have been conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match over their last ten games, while their attacking output is limited at 0.9 goals per match. Their league position gives them strong motivation, as they are only a small distance from safety and every point matters in the fight to stay up.
Match Results: Derby
Total Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed in 20 of the last 22 head-to-head meetings between Queens Park Rangers and Derby County. Both sides have modest scoring records this season: Queens Park Rangers average 1.22 goals per game, while Derby County average 0.89. Derby County are conceding 1.67 goals per game this season, but the attacking statistics of their opponents do not point towards a high-scoring match. On that basis, the pick is Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.33*.
Reliable Bet
Derby County have conceded in 12 of their last 13 matches, while Queens Park Rangers average 1 goal per home game. Given Derby County's current defensive record and the hosts' consistent scoring, Queens Park Rangers Team Total - Over 0.5 looks very reliable at odds of 1.17*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17.21%), 0-0 (11.87%) and 1-1 (10.73%). A narrow Queens Park Rangers win by 1-0 has the highest probability, but the two other options - both draws - are fairly close behind. This reflects an expectation of low scoring and a tight contest.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.*
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The match sets up as one where both sides need a result: QPR cannot afford to lose touch with the automatic promotion places, while Derby County are fighting to get out of the relegation zone. Neither team is on a winning run and both are making plenty of defensive errors - particularly the visitors, who have been conceding more than one goal per game on a consistent basis. Given Derby's strong motivation and QPR's moderate level, the match could produce plenty of attacking play and set-piece situations. The trend of over 9.5 corners in Derby County's matches is backed up by the demanding nature of their games and the fact that they tend to go right to the wire. The bet is Total Corners - Over 9.5. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Queens Park Rangers - Derby
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