St Pauli vs Hoffenheim Prediction 14 March 2025
🔊 In the opening match of the 26th round of the Bundesliga, St. Pauli will host Hoffenheim. A tense game is expected, as both teams are fighting for survival, and they are separated by only 4 points in the table. The "Pirates" are trailing, but are considered favorites for the upcoming match due to the home advantage. However, this is a weak argument, as they play worse at home than away. Therefore, the "Villagers" will visit the "Millerntor" with one goal - to extend their unbeaten streak.
Head-to-Head
📊 Officially, St. Pauli and Hoffenheim have played only one match. The encounter took place on 02 November 2024 at Hoffenheim's field and ended with a score of 0:2.
Head-to-head statistics St Pauli - Hoffenheim

St. Pauli Team Overview
🟤 St. Pauli has returned to the Bundesliga after 13 years, but staying in the elite will not be easy. The team occupies low positions in the league table, which is due to insufficient scoring and frequent defensive failures. In the last ten matches, the "Pirates" managed to secure only two victories, scoring an average of 0.7 goals per game, which is clearly not enough for successful performance.
🔗 However, in the last round, Alexander Blessin's team managed to break a four-match losing streak by drawing with Wolfsburg (1:1). The assist to Sibe van der Heyden was Jackson Irvine's sixth in the current Bundesliga season. Thus, the Australian broke into the top 10 best assistants.
📢 “We showed a quite decent game, implementing much of what we aimed for. If it weren't for the ridiculous penalty awarded against us, we would have won. Now we focus on Hoffenheim, in the match against whom we will try to take three points,” commented the head coach of the "Pirates" on the result.
❌ The hosts have no fresh losses. Simon Zoller, Connor Metcalfe, and Sascha Burchert have not played since last year, and Morgan Guilavogui and James Sands were sidelined in February. This pair could have contended for a starting position.
Match Results: St. Pauli

Hoffenheim Team Overview
🔵 Hoffenheim is in a more favorable position and demonstrates much more stable play. In the last ten matches, they have secured four victories and three draws, showing an average scoring rate of 1.8 goals per game. However, the defense remains vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per match.
🔗 The "Villagers" have been alternating results persistently for four rounds now - they win away games and draw at home with a score of 1:1. This was exactly how the match against Heidenheim ended.
📢 Hoffe's head coach Fabian Ilzer was not satisfied with the result: “A draw is not satisfying. We dropped two points by not capitalizing on our chances when leading 1-0. The opponent gained confidence once the scoreboard was leveled.”
❌ Four players from the "Villagers" have been injured since last year: Ozan Kabak, Ihlas Bebou, Grischa Prömel, and Christopher Lenz. Adam Hložek (the main forward) got injured in February, and in the last match, Diadie Samassekou suffered another injury after playing only 5 minutes. Additionally, Arthur Chaves, the main central defender, will miss the upcoming match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Match Results: Hoffenheim
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 1;
- home team wins - 1, away team wins - 0, draws - 0.
Statistics: St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim
- number of matches played in the tournament: 25 vs 25;
- number of wins: 6 vs 6;
- win percentage: 24% vs 24%;
- number of losses: 15 vs 11;
- number of draws: 4 vs 8.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 2 vs 4;
- number of losses: 6 vs 3;
- number of draws: 2 vs 3.
- St. Pauli has not won in each of their last 6 Bundesliga games.
Prediction on the over/under
Statistics: St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim
- average total in the tournament: 1.96 vs 3.16;
- average total goals scored: 0.76 vs 1.28;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.36 vs 0.56;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.4 vs 0.72;
- St. Pauli: average total at home in the tournament - 0.58;
- Hoffenheim: average total away in the tournament - 1;
- last 10 matches (average total): 0.7 (home - 0.8) vs 1.8 (away - 2.4).
- St. Pauli has conceded in 7 of the last 8 Bundesliga home games.
- Hoffenheim has scored in 9 of the last 10 games.
Prediction on corners
St. Pauli: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4; at home field - 4.08;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.6; at home field - 4.
Hoffenheim: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5, away - 4.25;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.2; away - 3.8.
- St. Pauli has taken under 5.5 corners in 7 of the last 8 Bundesliga home games.
Prediction on cards
St. Pauli: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.28; at home - 1.08;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 0.8; at home - 0.6.
Hoffenheim: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.76, away - 2.17;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 1.9; away - 2.2.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 1;
- both teams scored all-time - 0 times;
- on the home team’s field - 0 times.
Statistics: St. Pauli vs Hoffenheim
- number of matches played in the tournament: 25 vs 25;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 6 vs 17;
- number of BTTS matches for St. Pauli at home - 2 (17%);
- number of BTTS matches for Hoffenheim away - 7 (58%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 2 vs 8;
- BTTS matches for St. Pauli at home - 1 (20%);
- BTTS matches for Hoffenheim away - 4 (80%).
Editorial Prediction
Considering the current form of the teams and the statistics from recent matches, the game is expected to have a low number of goals. St. Pauli is struggling with scoring goals, and their defense often falters as well. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, shows good scoring ability but also has defensive issues. Based on trends and statistics, the most likely outcome is total under 2.5 goals. This prediction is supported by the fact that in 11 out of St. Pauli's last 12 matches, fewer than 2.5 goals were scored. Given the cautious playing style of both teams under such conditions, a closed match with minimal goal-scoring opportunities can be expected.