Toluca vs Tijuana Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 14 February 2026
✨ In the sixth round of the Mexican Liga MX, an intriguing clash awaits as Toluca host Tijuana. The home side aims to solidify their position at the top of the standings, relying on their strong performances at home and the passionate support of their fans. Meanwhile, Tijuana arrive with the ambition of securing points to improve their standing, which will see them focus intensely on their defensive play. This match promises to be tactically rich, with each team probing for weaknesses in their opponent to achieve the desired outcome. Crucial league points are at stake, ensuring a high level of competition throughout the full 90 minutes.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams ended in a 0-0 draw. Here's a comparative breakdown of the statistics from that encounter (Tijuana were the home side):
- possession: 39% vs 61%;
- corner kicks: 2 vs 5;
- fouls: 14 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 1;
- shots on target: 0 vs 2.
📊Statistical preview of official encounters between Toluca and Tijuana:
- 43 matches played;
- home team victories - 18, away team wins - 16, draws - 9;
- goals scored - 64 for Toluca, 51 for Tijuana;
- average total in the first half - 1.23, in the second half - 1.44;
- average total goals per match - 2.67.
Head-to-head statistics Toluca - Tijuana
Toluca Team Overview
The most recent official match took place in the Liga MX, featuring Toluca as the home side and Cruz Azul as the visitors. The game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Here's a look at the match statistics (Toluca vs Cruz Azul):
- possession: 55% vs 45%;
- corners: 6 vs 1;
- fouls: 4 vs 4;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 2;
- shots on target: 6 vs 3.
Toluca, known as the "Diablos Rojos," have showcased their stability and confidence with two consecutive wins following three draws in their last five matches. Averaging nearly two goals per game this season highlights the club's attacking prowess. However, their defense occasionally falters, conceding just under one goal per match on average. Their most recent encounter with Tijuana ended in a goalless draw.
Match Results: Toluca
Tijuana Team Overview
The latest official match for the current visitors took place in the Liga MX tournament (Tijuana were the home team, Puebla the visitors). The match ended in a 0-0 draw.
Here are the match statistics (Tijuana vs Puebla):
- possession: 57% vs 43%;
- corners: 3 vs 8;
- fouls: 12 vs 10;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 1;
- shots on target: 3 vs 4.
Tijuana continue their quest for top spots in the Mexican championship, currently sitting 10th in the standings due to their persistence and organized play. Over the last five matches, they've suffered just one defeat, drawing four times, showcasing their resilience on the pitch. Their balanced approach allows them to perform well both offensively and defensively, with an average of goals scored and conceded being nearly identical at 1.4.
Match Results: Tijuana
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 43;
- First-half wins at home for hosts - 14; for visitors away - 0; number of draws - 7;
- Average first-half total: 1.23;
- Today's home team scores on average 0.72, while the visitors net 0.51.
First-Half Stats: Toluca (home) vs Tijuana (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 14 vs 11;
- wins: 9 (64.29%) vs 2 (18.18%);
- losses: 3 (21.43%) vs 4 (36.36%);
- draws: 2 (14.29%) vs 5 (45.45%);
- Average goals scored: 2.07 vs 1.18;
- Average goals conceded: 0.71 vs 0.82.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- wins: 2 vs 2;
- losses: 2 vs 2;
- draws: 6 vs 6;
- Average first-half total: 0.7 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.3) vs 1.2 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.8).
- Toluca scored in the 1st half in 10 of last 11 home games against Tijuana.
- Toluca scored in the 1st half in 8 of last 9 home games against Tijuana (Liga MX).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 43;
- home team wins - 18, away team wins - 16, draws - 9.
- Tijuana won with a +2.5 handicap in 7 of last 8 away games against Toluca.
- Tijuana won with a +2.5 handicap in 12 of last 14 away games (Liga MX).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.49, the guests - 1.19;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.67;
- both teams scored: overall - 19; at the home team's field - 9.
Statistics: Toluca vs Tijuana
- average total in the tournament: 2.89 vs 2.92;
- average total goals scored: 1.96 vs 1.6;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.93 vs 0.6;
- average total in the 2nd half: 1.04 vs 1;
- Toluca: average total at home in the tournament - 2.57;
- Tijuana: average total away in the tournament - 1.27;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1 (home - 1.8) vs 1.4 (away - 1.25).
- Toluca have scored over 1.5 goals in 8 of last 9 home games against Tijuana (Liga MX).
- Toluca have scored over 1.5 goals in 6 of last 7 home games against Tijuana.
Prediction on corners
Toluca: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.46; at home field - 5.64;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.7; at home field - 6.2.
Tijuana: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3.36, away - 3.45;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 3.8; away - 4.5.
- Tijuana have taken over 2.5 corners in 8 of last 9 away games against Toluca.
- Tijuana have taken over 2.5 corners in 7 of last 8 away games (Liga MX).
Prediction on cards
H2H
- average Over/Under yellow cards in H2H matches - 3.2 (1.6 for home team and 1.6 for away team);
- average Over/Under yellow cards at the home team's field - 3 (1.24 for home team and 1.76 for away team).
Toluca: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 2.29; at home - 1.79;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 2.5; at home - 1.6.
Tijuana: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 2.56, away - 2.91;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 2.9; away - 3.75.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 43;
- both teams scored all-time - 19 times;
- on the home team’s field - 9 times.
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:0 (22/215, 10.2%), 1:1 (22/215, 10.2%);
- Toluca at home most often finish matches: 3:1 (4/14, 28.6%);
- Tijuana away most often play: 2:2 (2/11, 18.2%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
2:1 - 10.15% (odds 8.5)
2:0 - 9.73% (odds 7.5)
1:0 - 8.8% (odds 8.5)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Toluca, when playing at home, often adopts a pragmatic approach against strong opponents, despite their attacking ambitions, choosing not to rush the game. Tijuana, on the other hand, traditionally focuses on solid defense during away matches, prioritizing securing their goal and capitalizing on counterattacks. The head-to-head history between these teams frequently features tense encounters with few goals, where the outcome is often decided by one or two precise strikes. Considering the high stakes for points early in the season and both sides' reluctance to take risks, betting on under 3.5 goals seems the most reasonable choice for this matchup.
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Betting Tips: Toluca - Tijuana
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