Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki Prediction 13 August 2026
🔊 A Conference League match is on the way. The second leg of the 3rd qualifying round sees Scottish side Motherwell take on Finnish club HJK. This match will determine Freiburg's opponent in the play-off round for a place in the main stage of the tournament.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have met once before - last week in the first leg of this stage, they couldn't find a winner (1:1). HJK looked good in the first half, playing on the front foot, but failed to score. The goal was only opened in the second half by the Scottish visitors from the penalty spot. The Finns quickly levelled through legendary striker Teemu Pukki.
Head-to-head statistics Motherwell - HJK Helsinki
Motherwell Team Overview
Motherwell finished fourth last season and earned the right to compete for a place in European football for the first time in four years. The Scots started the new season unbeaten in their first two matches, though they played two sides from the top six of last season's Premiership - Hibernian (2-1) and Falkirk (0-0).
Head coach Alfred Johansson is dealing with massive squad problems. Injuries have hit the team hard, leaving very limited rotation options at the start of the league campaign and in the Conference League qualifying rounds. Among the key absentees are two important first-choice defenders - O'Donnell and McGinn - as well as Australian striker Stamatelopoulos. New signing Dylan Williams, who contributed 1+1 in the previous Conference League qualifying round, is also unavailable through injury.
Despite all the squad problems, the Scottish side find ways to play quick transitions from defence to attack, actively using the flanks with good wingers such as Willie Vogt, Ibrahim Said and Regan Charles-Cook. The striker is used not just as a target man but also as a pressing machine in vertical transitions. In the previous meeting with HJK, we saw a more cautious approach from Johansson's side, with an emphasis on counter-attacks and a disciplined defensive shape without the ball.
Although the club is a regular participant in European qualifying, the Scottish side have yet to reach the group stage of a European competition in recent history. But home advantage and the manager's modern approach will help push the team towards the coveted play-off round against Freiburg.
Match Results: Motherwell
HJK Helsinki Team Overview
The visitors have a significant advantage, as they come into this match in the middle of their season: the team is well-drilled, knows what they are capable of and what they are working towards. In the Finnish championship, the club sit in the top three after matchday 19 - a few games before the end of the regular stage and the start of the championship round. In their last five matches, the team lost just once, conceding only once across the other four, which speaks to the Finns playing well not only in attack.
Against the backdrop of the weakened Scottish defence, the Finnish attack led by Teemu Pukki will certainly have chances. It is quite possible that the legendary Finn will be the one to get on the scoresheet in the away match.
The Finnish side began their push into the final part of the season with a few targeted transfers: in the summer they signed Muhamed Gueye from Belgian side Kortrijk, completed the permanent signing of Mads Borchers, and brought in young Liverpool defender Amara Nallo on loan. The coaching staff confirm that the team goes into the second leg in virtually their best available squad with no significant absentees.
Match Results: HJK Helsinki
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The Scottish side are still finding their rhythm at the start of the season and will be making extra mistakes in midfield, which means they will have to foul. Although neither team fouls all that much. It is worth looking at the average total bookings over the last ten matches: Motherwell - 3.5, HJK - 2.4 per game, yet in the first match between these two we saw five yellow cards. Given the potential intensity and tight battle, we expect total yellow cards over 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
HJK have been conceding very few goals in recent matches, and Motherwell failed to take their chances in the first meeting, scoring only from the penalty spot. Both teams are playing quite cautiously, knowing that a place in the next round is at stake, and will not take unnecessary risks. We expect the match to be low on goals and suggest total under 3 at odds of 1.55*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
In the first match we saw eight corners, with a slight advantage in favour of the Finnish side - 5:3. It is no surprise that the Finns place emphasis on set pieces, as they have several tall players at their disposal. Till Cissoko alone is worth mentioning - a two-metre defender. But Motherwell are a British team playing at home, so this match will certainly not end without set pieces from the hosts. We suggest total corners in the 2nd half over 4.5 at odds of 1.68*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editor's Pick
Despite bookmakers seeing Motherwell as the clear favourites, we expect HIK to cause enough problems for the Scottish side, who are only just getting into their stride at the start of the season. We also keep in mind the injury list issues for the Steelmen, in contrast to the Finnish side. But home advantage and cautious football level the chances of both teams. For this reason, our editorial team sees a draw in regular time as the most likely outcome - 1:1. The key bet for this match is HIK handicap (+1). This option has returned at least a non-losing result in 6 of the last 7 matches for the Scandinavians.
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Betting Tips: Motherwell - HJK Helsinki
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in last 6 Motherwell games.in 8 of last 9 HJK Helsinki games.
in last 8 Michal Ocenas games.in last 5 Michal Ocenas games (in the UEFA Europa Conference League).in 12 of last 14 HJK Helsinki games.in 7 of last 8 HJK Helsinki away games.in last 9 home games.in 8 of last 9 games.
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