Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 13 May 2026
π The second leg of the Colombian Primera A quarter-final between Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima puts the spotlight on attacking efficiency. Tolima edged the first match 1-0, but both sides have shown consistency throughout the season, and their tactical approaches rarely produce high-scoring affairs. Deportes Tolima, in particular, tend to keep things tight on their travels-most of their recent away games have finished with few goals. Pasto have struggled to convert chances against this type of opponent; historically, they have found it difficult to break down Tolimaβs resolute defence.
Head-to-Head
The first leg of the quarter-final between these sides took place on 09 May 2026, with Deportes Tolima edging out a narrow 1-0 victory. Despite the final scoreline, the match was closely contested by the numbers-here are some telling stats. Tolima dominated possession with 63% compared to their opponentsβ 37%, but struggled to turn that control into a clear advantage: both teams registered five shots on target apiece. Even corner kicks were evenly split, six each.
Meetings between Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima have historically favored the visitors, with Tolima showing far more confidence on the road. In 41 head-to-head clashes, Pasto have managed just 9 wins, while Tolima have come out on top twice as often-18 victories. The sides have shared the spoils 14 times. The goal difference tells its own story: Deportivo have found the net a modest 37 times, while Tolima have struck an impressive 56 goals. Blowouts are a rarity in this fixture, as the average total goals per match stands at just 2.27. Most of the action unfolds after the break, with the second half typically producing more goals (1.29) compared to less than one before halftime.
Head-to-head statistics Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima
Pasto Team Overview
Deportivo Pasto head into this fixture on the back of three defeats in their last five outings, highlighting clear issues with consistency. Over their previous ten matches, they have picked up four wins but suffered five losses, conceding an average of more than a goal per game. Their attack has been anything but reliable, averaging just 1.45 goals per match, while their defense regularly allows opponents to find the net. This trend suggests Deportivo Pasto rarely build a commanding lead and are often forced to chase the game. At home, they struggle to maintain control against sides with well-organized defenses.
Match Results: Pasto
Tolima Team Overview
Deportes Tolima are approaching this season with a clear focus on defensive solidity. Over their last five matches, Tolima have picked up three wins, one draw, and suffered just a single defeat-a run that highlights their strong current form. Their away performances deserve special mention: on the road, Tolima adopt a highly pragmatic approach, with most of their matches ending in low-scoring affairs. Across their previous ten outings, they have conceded less than a goal per game on average. This level of consistency at the back allows Tolima to dictate play from a defensive base and impose a cautious tempo on their opponents.
Match Results: Tolima
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head meetings:
- Games played - 41;
- First-half wins for the home side - 6; for the visitors - 4; draws - 10;
- Average first-half total: 0.98;
- Today's hosts average 0.41 goals in the first half, while the visitors average 0.56.
First-half stats: Deportivo Pasto (home) vs Deportes Tolima (away)
- Matches played in the competition: 10 vs 9;
- Wins: 4 (40%) vs 4 (44.44%);
- Losses: 0 (0%) vs 3 (33.33%);
- Draws: 6 (60%) vs 2 (22.22%);
- Average goals scored: 0.9 vs 1.33;
- Average goals conceded: 0.2 vs 0.56.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- Wins: 4 vs 4;
- Losses: 2 vs 3;
- Draws: 4 vs 3;
- Average first-half total: 1.3 (scored - 0.7, conceded - 0.6) vs 0.9 (scored - 0.5, conceded - 0.4).
- Deportivo Pasto have scored in the first half at home in five consecutive head-to-head matches against Deportes Tolima.
Match Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head record:
- Matches played - 41;
- Home wins - 9, Away wins - 18, Draws - 14.
Stats: Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
- Matches in the competition: 19 vs 19;
- Wins: 10 vs 9;
- Win percentage: 50% vs 45%;
- Losses: 6 vs 4;
- Draws: 4 vs 7.
Last 10 matches:
- Wins: 4 vs 4;
- Losses: 5 vs 3;
- Draws: 1 vs 3.
- Deportes Tolima are winless in their last 8 away matches (Primera A).
- Deportes Tolima have not picked up a win on the road in 7 straight games.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head (average goals):
- Home side - 0.9, Away side - 1.37;
- Average in head-to-head games - 2.27;
- Both teams scored: overall - 24 times; at Pastoβs ground - 15 times.
Average goals stats: Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
- This tournament: 2.75 vs 2.25;
- Goals scored: 1.45 vs 1.4;
- First half: 0.65 vs 0.7;
- Second half: 0.8 vs 0.7;
- Deportivo Pasto at home in this competition - 1.4;
- Deportes Tolima away in this competition - 0.89;
- Last 10 matches: 1.5 (home - 1.25) vs 1.3 (away - 0.33).
- Deportivo Pasto have scored under 1.5 goals in 17 of their last 19 head-to-head meetings with Deportes Tolima (Primera A).
Corner Prediction
Deportivo Pasto: Stats
- This season: average corners in tournament - 3.8; at home - 3.9;
- Last 10 games: average corners - 4.1; at home - 4.25.
Deportes Tolima: Stats
- This season: average corners in tournament - 4.75, away - 4.44;
- Last 10 games: average corners - 4.6; away - 2.67.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- Matches played - 41;
- Both teams have scored overall - 24 times;
- At Pasto's ground - on 15 occasions.
Stats: Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
- Matches played in the competition: 19 vs 19;
- Matches this season with both teams scoring (BTTS): 11 vs 9;
- Deportivo Pasto BTTS at home - 5 (50%);
- Deportes Tolima BTTS away - 4 (44%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS games: 6 vs 3;
- Deportivo Pasto BTTS at home - 2 (50%);
- Deportes Tolima BTTS away - 1 (33%).
Correct Score Prediction
Most frequent results (current season):
- The most common scoreline in the tournament: 1-1 (31/194, 16%);
- Deportivo Pasto at home most often finish with: 1-0, 1-2, or 2-0 (2/10, 20%);
- Deportes Tolima away most frequently play to: 0-0 or 1-1 (2/9, 22.2%).
Based on the stats and probability distribution, the algorithm projects the top three outcomes:
1-1 - 13.07% (odds: 5.25)
1-0 - 12.23% (odds: 5.5)
0-0 - 9.71% (odds: 7.5)
β Editorβs Prediction
The sides have approached this season with discipline and calculated football, and Deportes Tolimaβs away form suggests theyβll look to keep things tight, avoiding unnecessary risks. With a first-leg advantage in hand, Tolima have no reason to force the issue-they can afford to play conservatively to secure their place in the semi-finals. Deportivo Pasto have struggled for attacking consistency, rarely scoring more than once even at home, especially against opposition of Tolimaβs calibre. Both teams are highly motivated, which further reduces the likelihood of reckless play or taking chances up front. All signs point to a cagey affair, with space at a premium and few clear-cut chances. The best bet here looks to be under 2.5 goals.
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Betting Tips: Pasto - Tolima
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