Benfica vs Nice Prediction 12 August 2025
🔊 What kind of mood will the "Eaglets" from Nice be in as they leave Benfica's "Estádio da Luz"? The Portuguese "Eagles" enter the second leg of the Champions League qualification semi-finals as clear favorites, holding a solid two-goal advantage. Will Benfica secure an even larger victory against the French side on home turf, or will the team opt for a more conservative approach? Let's provide an insightful prediction of their chances in our analysis.
Head-to-Head
📊 The teams faced each other for the first time on August 6, 2025, during the Champions League qualification. The first leg of the two-legged tie ended in favor of Benfica, with a 2-0 victory.
Head-to-head statistics Benfica - Nice
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
🔴 The runners-up of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, returning from the Club World Cup this summer, remain unbeaten so far. Bruno Lage's team wasted no time getting into form, kicking off with a friendly against potential Champions League playoff opponents Fenerbahce, securing a 3-2 win. Their other two matches spanned different competitions: they clinched the Portuguese Super Cup against Sporting with a 1-0 victory and secured a convincing 2-0 win in Nice.
⚪️ The "Eagles" management is wisely allocating the funds received from Álvaro Carreras' transfer. The defender was sold to Real Madrid for €50 million. This transfer facilitated the acquisition of Palmeiras midfielder Richard Rios for €27 million, who made an immediate impact by being named the best player in the Super Cup match. Additionally, Franjo Ivanovic was bought from Union Saint-Gilloise for €22.8 million. Ivanovic, the sixth top scorer in the Belgian Pro League last season with 16 goals, already found the net for his new team in their opening match against Nice.
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Nice Team Overview
🔴 The fourth-placed team in Ligue 1 only secured a spot in the Champions League qualifiers at the very end of the season. Franck Haise's squad held the third position from rounds 21 to 25, but lost their footing in just four matches, dropping to seventh place. It wasn't until three games before the finish that Nice climbed back to fourth place, which they managed to hold onto. Confidence in their newfound stability was bolstered by a successful preseason, where they won four out of five matches. However, in the first leg of the Champions League playoffs, the "Eaglets" were defeated by a more illustrious mascot-falling 0-2 to Benfica's "Eagles."
⚫ During the off-season, Nice continue to cash in on their key players from last season. Defender Jean-Clair Todibo earned a permanent transfer to West Ham after a year on loan with the English club, fetching €42 million. The top scorer for the "Red and Blacks" (12 goals), Evann Guessand, also moved to another Premier League team, joining Aston Villa for €30 million.
Match Results: Nice
Latest news
Benfica Lisbon
🎙 "First and foremost, I'm very happy. This was my debut match and my first goal. But this game is just the first half; we have the second leg at home. The first half is done, and we're pleased with the win, but there's still work to be done next week. In the return leg, we want to play the same way at home, with our fans. I'm eagerly looking forward to it. And, of course, we aim to win and advance to the playoffs," shared Benfica debutant Franjo Ivanovic after the match in France.
Nice
❌ Beyond outgoing transfers, Nice are dealing with significant personnel losses due to a slew of injuries. Since last season, Tanguy Ndombele, Mohamed Abdel Monem, and Youssouf Ndayishimiye have been sidelined. During the preseason, Mohamed Ali Cho and Moïse Bombito joined them on the injury list.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by Italian referee Marco Guida. Over 186 Serie A matches, he averages 5.3 yellow cards per game. In the last Champions League season, his average was 4.25 yellow cards per match. Overall, Guida has overseen 14 games in Europe's top club competition, issuing an average of 3.6 cautions per game.
Nice tend to play a bit rougher than their opponents, averaging 2.2 cards compared to Benfica's 1.6 over 11 matches. Considering the outcome of the first leg and Marco Guida's refereeing style, we don't expect the Lisbon encounter to be heavy on yellow cards. Our choice: total yellow cards under 4.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
Both teams displayed high scoring prowess in their domestic leagues last season: Nice netted 66 goals, ranking third in Ligue 1, while Benfica scored 84, just four goals shy of Sporting's tally. However, it's important to note Nice's personnel losses due to an injury to one forward and the departure of their top scorer. Without them, the "Red and Blacks" managed only 0.67 xG in their home game, where they were expected to perform better. We anticipate that at the Estádio da Luz, the Portuguese side will allow even fewer chances on goal and predict that Nice will not score.
🚩 Corner Prediction
In their last 11 matches, the teams have averaged the following corner stats: 4.95 for Nice and 5.7 for Benfica. In Nice, both teams combined for nine corners, with the visitors edging ahead by one. Looking at Benfica's Champions League stats: in six of their last seven matches, there were fewer than 10.5 corners. Similarly, the French side has seen fewer than 11.5 corners in six of their last seven games across all competitions. We believe this trend will continue and even decrease slightly in the upcoming match. Our choice: total corners under 10.5.
Editorial Prediction
The favorite for the second leg raises no doubts for either bookmakers or our editorial team. We agree with the odds, which significantly favor Benfica over their opponents, with a ratio of nearly four to one (1.6 compared to Nice's 5.98). In the first away match, the Lisbon side outperformed the hosts in xG by more than three times (1.87 to 0.62) and are unlikely to slow down, especially against a weakened attack from the "gymnasts." Considering Benfica haven't scored more than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches, we don't anticipate a rout and foresee a repeat of the previous scoreline - a 2-0 victory. Our bet is on a Benfica win.
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Betting Tips: Benfica Lisbon - Nice
in 17 of last 19 games.
in 36 of last 37 games.in 19 of last 20 home games.in 15 of last 16 away games.in 21 of last 22 Nice games.in last 11 Nice away games.
in 8 of last 9 Marco Guida games (in the UCL).in 9 of last 10 games.
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