Empoli vs Lecce Prediction 11 January 2025

🔊 Can Empoli secure a long-awaited victory? The "Blues," who showed fantastic results at the start of the season, continue to dig themselves into a hole. In the last 4 matches, the team has managed to earn only one point, and now the gap from the relegation zone is just one win. Lecce is precisely the team currently occupying the 18th place in the Serie A standings and wants to move into a safe zone. In this situation, we will try to analyze all the details to provide you with an accurate prediction for the match that will take place at "Carlo Castellani."

📊 Head-to-head

Empoli and Lecce do not have a rich history of head-to-head encounters. Since 2011, the teams have faced off on the football field only 7 times. Moreover, their matches often turn out to be predictable, uneventful, and scrappy - in 4 out of 7 games, the result was a draw, and in 5 cases, no more than 2 goals were scored. Incidentally, the match that took place in the first round of the current season ended with a score of 1-1.

🔵 Empoli

Will the upcoming match be the last for Empoli under Roberto D'Aversa's leadership? The team has not been able to win for 4 matches, even though they faced relatively easy opponents in three of them. Last weekend, the "Blues" failed to beat Venezia (1-1), who are second to last in the Serie A standings. Yes, Empoli looked much better in play (18-8 in shots, 1.49-0.94 in xG), but the result is on the scoreboard. Due to this series of unsuccessful games, the gap from the relegation zone no longer seems comfortable - only 3 points from the 18th place. As for the lineup, the "Blues" continue to experience serious personnel issues. There are as many as 9 players in the infirmary, including key defender Giuseppe Pezzella, who was injured in the last match.

🟡 Lecce

After showing a couple of good performances, Lecce decided to return to factory settings. In a stretch of the last 3 games, the team has earned only 1 point, which has once again placed them in the relegation zone. In the previous round, for example, the "Salentians" played goalless football with Genoa (0-0). Moreover, it's hard to say that Lecce was closer to victory than their opponent. Although the team controlled possession for most of the time (63% against 37%) and took more shots (10 against 4), they couldn't create a single sharp moment near the opponent's goal. This is also confirmed by their low xG figure, which was only 0.47. Although it should be noted that the club, like Empoli, has serious personnel issues. Thus, 6 players will not play, including Hamza Rafia and Kialonda Gaspar.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

It is likely that the match between Empoli and Lecce will be the least productive in the 20th round of Serie A. Both teams do not stand out with bright attacking play, and the "Salentians" have scored only 11 goals since the start of the championship (the worst record). Moreover, we noted that head-to-head encounters are not very interesting for neutral spectators. Few dangerous moments and few goals - total under 2.5 has hit in the last 5 meetings. We wouldn’t be surprised if this betting option proves successful again.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Undoubtedly, teams that do not play very actively in attack rarely earn set pieces near their opponents' goals. For example, Lecce with an average total of 3.9 corners ranks eighteenth, and only Monza (3.8) and Venezia (3.3) have lower numbers. Empoli, on the other hand, approaches the corner flag 4.5 times per game (twelfth place). In such a situation, a reliable bet seems to be total corners under 9.5.

📝 Editorial Prediction

In the upcoming match, bookmakers favor Empoli. Although it should be acknowledged that recently, the "Blues'" game raises many questions. The team has stopped not only earning points but also, more importantly, converting their chances. Additionally, Roberto D'Aversa's side has become very dependent on Sebastiano Esposito. Thus, 6 out of Empoli's last 9 goals were scored by this young forward. And Lecce's potential tactic aimed at neutralizing the Italian could significantly reduce the "Blues'" attacking capabilities. Considering Lecce's scoring record (only 11 goals in 19 matches), our editorial team decided to go with total goals under 2.5. A scoreline of 0-0 after 90 minutes wouldn't be a big surprise.