Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 12 October 2026
🔊 On Monday, Sérgio Ferreira faces his former boss. From 2020 to 2024 he worked as Carlos Carvalhal's assistant. Alverca is Ferreira's first senior managerial role, while Carvalhal took charge of Famalicão in the summer. For now the pupil has the edge: Alverca are a point ahead.
Head-to-Head
Famalicão won the last meeting between the two sides, beating Alverca 1-0. Despite equal possession, the hosts outperformed their opponents in dangerous attacks - 53 to 21 - though the expected goals figures were almost level: 0.67 against 0.64.
In three official meetings, Famalicão have beaten Alverca twice and lost to them once. All three of Famalicão's goals in those matches came in the second half.
Head-to-head statistics Famalicao - Alverca
Famalicao Team Overview
In the previous Primeira Liga round, Famalicão beat Nacional de Madeira 4-0 away, scoring three goals before half-time. Both sides had 12 shots, and by expected goals the hosts actually edged it slightly - 1.25 to 1.1.
Famalicão under Carlos Carvalhal picked up their first Primeira Liga win of the season only in the seventh round - but it was a statement result: a 4-0 away victory over Nacional, with Georgios Koutsias and Sorriso each scoring twice. At home, though, there has been no such turnaround. The last time Famalicão won a league match at home was 16 May, and the opponents that day were Alverca. This season, they have lost to Marítimo at home and drawn with Gil Vicente and Sporting. With seven points, they sit 13th.
Match Results: Famalicao
Alverca Team Overview
Alverca beat Rio Ave 1-0 at home in the latest Primeira Liga round. The margin was minimal despite a commanding advantage in shots - 23-6 - and expected goals - 2.39 to 0.47 - in favour of the hosts.
Alverca went without a win in their first five matches under Sérgio Ferreira, losing to Porto, Sporting and Braga. The turnaround came just before the international break. They first won away at Nacional (3-1), then beat Rio Ave at home the following week. Dawda Camara, who joined Alverca from Girona in the summer, was the key figure in both matches. He scored twice in Funchal and got the only goal against Rio Ave early in the game. Alverca are tenth with eight points.
Match Results: Alverca
Corner Kick Prediction
Alverka have earned at least four corners in 9 of their last 10 away Primeira Liga matches. Playing away from home does not stop them from forcing corners. The pick is Alverka Team Total Corners - Over 3.5.
The Reliable Bet
Famalicão have scored more than two goals in just one of their last 20 matches. At home their attack has been even more modest: two goals in three matches this season. The bet survives even a Famalicão win, as long as they don't score a third. The pick is Famalicão Team Total - Under 2.5.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely correct score outcomes are: 1-0 (13.15%), 1-1 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The most expected result is a narrow win for Famalicão.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Famalicão have not won a home match this season: three games have brought them just two points. There is little reason to expect many goals from the hosts either. They have failed to score more than two goals at home in nine consecutive league matches. Alverca rarely lose by more than one goal: in their last 14 Primeira Liga matches, that has happened only twice, both times against Porto and Sporting. The visitors also picked up six points from two rounds before the break. We expect a hard-fought game from which Alverca will not leave empty-handed. The bet is Alverca not to lose. Predicted score: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Famalicao - Alverca
in last 6 games (Liga Portugal).
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