Bahia Ba vs Mirassol Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 11 October 2026
🔊 Bahia go into this match having won three of their last five league games, sitting sixth and with a clear incentive to push on. Mirassol are considerably lower in the table but remain highly motivated - the visitors are fighting to stay up and are just two points clear of the danger zone. That contrast in pressure and league position shapes the outlook for this fixture.
The main storyline in the head-to-head clashes between Mirassol and Bahia
Bahia beat Mirassol away in a Série A match on 11 April 2026 - 2:1, despite trailing 0:1 at half-time. With xG almost level (1.65 vs 1.67), Bahia had more shots on target: eight against six.
In three official meetings, each side has won once and one match ended in a draw. Mirassol have scored seven goals to Bahia's four, with both teams finding the net in every match.
Head-to-head statistics Bahia Ba - Mirassol
The main storyline surrounding Bahia
In their last Série A match on 9 October 2026, Bahia lost away to Palmeiras 0-1. Despite having 59% possession, they managed just one shot on target compared to Palmeiras' 11, with an xG of 0.67 against 2.63.
Bahia have been putting together consistent results: three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. Across their last ten games, they have won four, lost two and drawn four. They are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.2 conceded - the attack is functioning steadily, the defence has had occasional lapses but there is no crisis. Their league position demands they push forward - dropping points risks slipping them below the relegation zone.
Match Results: Bahia
Mirassol: Vulnerable at the back and lacking firepower up front
Mirassol came away with a draw from their away Serie A match against Bragantino 7 October 2026 - 1:1, despite a shots difference of 8:33 and having a player sent off. The Mirassol goalkeeper made eight saves.
Mirassol have won just two of their last ten matches, with three defeats and five draws - a run that highlights their inconsistency, though every point matters given how close they are to the relegation zone. Over their last five games they have one win, two draws and one defeat: the form is far from ideal, but Mirassol are scrapping for every point they can get. Their defence remains vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game, while their attack rarely manages more than one goal per match. Their motivation is high, and that could offset the statistical advantage their opponents hold.
Match Results: Mirassol
Total Goals Prediction
In 7 of their last 8 home matches, Bahia have seen the total goals come in under 3.5, which supports a trend towards low scoring in their home games. Their average home figures (1.57 scored, 1 conceded) and Mirassol's average away figures (0.93 scored, 1.57 conceded) also point to fairly modest output from both sides in their respective contexts. No significant conflicting evidence was found in the statistics, and a bet on Total Goals - Under 3.5 looks reasonable at 1.38*.
Corners Prediction
In 10 of their last 11 away matches, Mirassol have seen the total corners exceed 9.5, pointing to a clear trend towards high corner counts when the visitors are involved on the road. Alternative trends also support the high frequency of large corner totals being cleared in Mirassol's away matches. Total Corners - Over 9.5 at 1.43* looks reliable.
Risky Bet
Bahia have put up solid numbers at home this season - just 2 defeats against 6 wins, with a good goals-for/against ratio of 1.57/1. Mirassol, meanwhile, have been fairly unconvincing away from home, with only 2 wins and 8 defeats and an average of 1.57 goals conceded per game. That said, Mirassol's recent unbeaten run creates a degree of conflict with those trends. Still, Bahia Handicap -1.25 at 2.52* can be considered a risky option, given Bahia's home advantage.
Reliable Bet
Bahia have scored under 2.5 goals at home in 10 of their last 11 matches - a consistent trend backed up by their home scoring average of 1.57 goals per game. There are no meaningful signs of high scoring from Bahia in home fixtures, so the bet on Bahia Team Total - Under 2.5 Goals looks reliable at odds of 1.30*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the three most likely outcomes are 1:0 (13.59%), 1:1 (10.76%) and 2:1 (9.98%). These scenarios reflect a tendency towards relatively low scoring and suggest a tight contest with a slight advantage for Bahia. Of the options presented, a 1:0 scoreline has the highest probability.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The current trend speaks for itself: Mirassol have lost just once in their last eight league matches, regularly picking up at least a point even against stronger opponents. The visitors' motivation is heightened by the pressure of the relegation battle. The home/away statistics don't give the hosts a decisive advantage either, and given Mirassol's recent form, taking at least a point under the pressure of their situation is well within their reach. The editor's prediction is Mirassol not to lose.
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Betting Tips: Bahia - Mirassol
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