Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 23 October 2026
📢 Atlético Nacional and Deportivo Pasto come into this meeting in completely different positions. The hosts sit second in the table and are moving comfortably towards the play-offs, having shown consistent results throughout the season. The visitors, by contrast, are bottom of the league in 20th place. Deportivo Pasto are struggling both to pick up points and to organise their play, which makes this away trip to one of the leading sides a difficult test.
Head-to-Head
Atlético Nacional beat Deportivo Pasto away from home, 2-1. In that Primera A match on 29 March 2026, the hosts had the better of the shots (15-10), but only one of those was on target compared to six from the visitors.
Atlético Nacional have won 27 of their 41 official meetings with Deportivo Pasto, losing six and drawing eight. The goal difference tells a similar story: 63-29 in Nacional's favour.
Head-to-head statistics Atletico Nacional - Deportivo Pasto
Atlético Nacional have claimed three wins in their last five matches
Atlético Nacional's most recent Primera A match on 20 October 2026 ended in a 0-1 away defeat to Cúcuta Deportivo. Despite enjoying 70% possession, registering 18 shots to their opponents' six and putting eight of those on target, they failed to score.
Atlético Nacional are having a strong Clausura campaign and sit second in the table with 26 points, firmly among the leading contenders for a play-off place. In their last five matches they have won three and drawn one, continuing a positive run. The team's main strength remains their balance between attack and defence: they are averaging 1.95 goals scored per game and conceding just 0.87. Those numbers allow them to win consistently and hold their own even against stronger opposition.
Match Results: Atletico Nacional Medellin
Deportivo Pasto have managed just two wins in their last ten matches
Deportivo Pasto's last Primera A match was a 0-1 home defeat to Alianza 20 October 2026. Pasto had 71% possession and outshot their opponents by two to one (12-6), but failed to convert any of their three shots on target.
Deportivo Pasto are having a very poor Clausura campaign and sit bottom of the table with nine points. Their recent results have been a serious concern, with three defeats and two wins from their last five matches. Over a longer run the picture looks even worse: across their last ten matches they have won just twice and lost five times. Their attack is averaging 1.12 goals per game, while their defence is conceding 1.38.
Match Results: Pasto
Total Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Under 3.5 looks a reasonable choice for this match. In 11 of Deportivo Pasto's last 12 matches the total has come in under 3.5, which points to a consistent low-scoring trend. The statistics for both sides support this: Atlético Nacional's average total goals at home is 2.41, while Deportivo Pasto's average away is 1.27 - both figures are well short of a high-scoring game. In their last 10 matches, neither side has averaged more than 3-4 goals. We're backing Total Goals - Under 3.5 at odds of 1.44*.
Safer Bet
Atlético Nacional have scored fewer than 3.5 goals at home in 16 of their last 17 matches, which underlines how consistent this line is. Their average of 2.41 goals per home game is well below the selected threshold. Taking into account Deportivo Pasto's low away goals conceded rate of 1.73, the Atlético Nacional Team Total - Under 3.5 looks as reliable as it gets at odds of 1.2*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12.29%), 1-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (10.19%). The probabilities are close across all three, but the model rates 2-0 as the most likely outcome.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites here, and the gap in quality between the two sides is hard to dispute. The hosts sit second in the table and have a fairly solid defence, while Deportivo Pasto are bottom of the standings and struggling badly in front of goal. Pasto rarely score at the best of times, and away from home against one of the league's leading sides it will be even harder for them to create chances. The editor's main prediction is Deportivo Pasto to Score: No.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Nacional Medellin - Pasto
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