Almeria vs Leganes Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 11 October 2026
🔊 Almería have hit a run of five consecutive wins and are now genuinely involved in the battle at the top. They sit third with 18 points, just three behind Eibar. Leganés, by contrast, have stalled: after their win over Granada, the visitors lost their next two matches without scoring, and in the most recent round they conceded four against Cádiz.
The difference in home and away form is particularly striking. Almería have won all four of their home matches in the current Segunda División season, while Leganés have managed just one win from five away games. The hosts have an excellent opportunity to extend their winning run and take advantage of another slip by their rivals in the race for automatic promotion.
Both teams have found the net in 5 of their last 7 matches.
The two sides last met 05 April 2026 in the Segunda División: after a 1-1 draw at half-time, Almería won 2-1. They were notably dominant in terms of possession (68% to 32%) and shots (18 to 8).
📊 In 7 official meetings, Almería have a slight edge: 3 wins to Leganés's 2, with 2 draws. The hosts scored in every one of those matches, and both teams found the net in 5 of them.
Head-to-head statistics Almeria - Leganes
Almería are on a five-match winning streak.
In the previous round, Almería beat Burgos 2-1 at home, despite trailing 0-1 at half-time. They had 25 shots in the match compared to 9 for their opponents.
Almería recovered quickly after their two August defeats against Tenerife and Sabadell. Since the start of September the team have won every match - five games, 15 points. Three of those matches ended without conceding a goal. Across the whole season the hosts have scored 13 times and conceded just 5, an average of 0.63 per game. At home they have been perfect: four wins from four, with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded.
Match Results: Almeria
Leganés: attack stalls as the defense starts to unravel
In their final Segunda División match, Leganés lost 4-0 away to Cádiz. Despite having 55% possession, the visitors managed just 1 shot on target compared to 9 for the hosts.
Leganés simply cannot find any consistency. After eight rounds, they have won three, drawn two and lost three. Recent results have been particularly worrying: a win over Granada was followed by defeats to Castellón and Cádiz. Conceding six goals in two matches has done little for the visitors' confidence. Their attacking output is no better - Leganés have scored just six goals in eight matches, an average of 0.75 per game. Away from home the numbers are even more modest: just two goals in five matches.
Match Results: Leganes
Latest news
Almeria
❌ Gui Guedes continues to recover from knee surgery. Rodrigo Eli is undergoing further assessment due to an ankle problem, and Mikel Vesga remains doubtful after a knock.
Leganes
🚑 Only Amadou Diawara remains out with a muscular injury.
Prediction for the 1st half
Almería like to make their presence felt early in home matches. In four games on their own ground, they have scored 10 goals, with 8 of those coming in the first half. Against Eldense and Cádiz they scored 3 times before the break in each match, and they put 2 unanswered goals past Celta Vigo B in the opening 45 minutes. The pick: Almería to Score in the 1st Half at 1.58*.
Match Result Prediction
Almería have turned their home ground into a real fortress. They have won 6 of their last 7 official home matches, including all 4 games in the current league season. In three of those wins, their margin of victory was at least 2 goals. Leganés look considerably weaker away from home. In 5 away league rounds, they have picked up just 5 points, scored 2 goals and conceded 7. Our pick: Almería to win at 1.66*.
Total Goals Prediction
Almería tend to get results without many goals. In 7 of their 8 matches in the current season, the combined total has been no more than three goals. The only exception was the September meeting with Cádiz, which finished 3-2. Over the last five rounds, Almería's average match total has been 2.6 goals.
Leganés are also rarely involved in high-scoring matches. In 6 of their 8 rounds, the combined total has been no more than two goals. The main risk comes from the visitors' recent defeats. However, Leganés's poor finishing and the hosts' solid defence suggest a more restrained scoreline is likely. We're backing Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.45*.
Reliable Bet
Leganés have scored fewer than 2 goals in 14 of their last 15 matches. The season's statistics support this pattern as well: the club average just 0.75 goals per match, and 0.4 away from home. All of this makes the Leganés Team Total - Under 1.5 Goals at 1.35* a reliable bet.
Correct Score Prediction
The algorithm identifies three likely outcomes: 1-0 (14.07%), 2-0 (12.63%) and 1-1 (10.3%). The 1-0 result has the highest probability, though the gap between these options is minimal - suggesting both teams may approach the match cautiously.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Almería look noticeably stronger across all the key indicators. They are confident at home, concede few goals and find a way to win even in difficult matches. Leganés arrive after two consecutive clean-sheet defeats, with their defensive problems only getting worse. The visitors are capable of making it competitive, but their current attacking output may not be enough even for a draw. Predicted score: 2-0. Main bet: Almería to win.
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Betting Tips: Almeria - Leganes
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