AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction 11 September 2026
📢 AZ Alkmaar go into this match as league leaders and are in the middle of an excellent winning run. Willem II, by contrast, have made a very poor start to the season and sit 16th with just one point. The two sides are at opposite ends of the table: the hosts need to stay top, while the visitors need points to climb out of the danger zone.
Head-to-Head
📊 In official matches between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II, the two sides have met 33 times. The hosts have won 19 of those, the visitors 9, with 5 draws. AZ also have the edge in goals, having scored 64 to Willem II's 36. On average, these matches produce 1.7 goals in the first half and 1.33 in the second, giving an overall match average of 3.03 goals.
Head-to-head statistics AZ Alkmaar - Willem II
AZ Alkmaar Team Overview
AZ Alkmaar have made a perfect start to the new season, picking up 15 points from five matches to sit top of the table. Taking the end of last season into account, they are unbeaten in ten consecutive matches, with six wins and four draws. Their Eredivisie form has been particularly impressive - five wins from five, averaging more than three goals per game. That said, even with such a potent attack, AZ rarely reach four goals in a match, having done so in just one of their last seven home games.
Match Results: AZ Alkmaar
Willem 2 Tilburg Team Overview
Willem II have picked up just one point from their opening four matches and sit 16th, with a game in hand on the leaders. Taking the end of last season into account, they have won four of their last ten matches, but the start of the new campaign has been considerably worse. In the current Eredivisie season they are averaging 1 goal scored and 3.25 conceded per game, so their defensive record remains the main problem. They have yet to win in the new season, and a trip to AZ - who have won all five of their matches - will be one of the toughest tests they face at this early stage of the campaign.
Match Results: Willem 2 Tilburg
Total Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Under 4.5 has landed in 14 of AZ Alkmaar's last 16 home matches, confirming a consistent tendency towards moderate scoring at this ground. The seasonal averages also point in the same direction - 3.5 goals per home match for AZ Alkmaar and 1 per away match for Willem II, and while the visitors do concede at a fairly high rate on the road (4 per match on average), that does not point towards an especially high-scoring outcome. There is no data suggesting high-scoring matches are common here, so the pick is Total Goals - Under 4.5 at odds of 1.43*.
Reliable Bet
AZ Alkmaar have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 7 home Eredivisie matches. Their consistent home scoring and high average of 3.5 goals per home game this season suggest the hosts are likely to find the net before the break again. No data has been found that would significantly cast doubt on this. The price on AZ Alkmaar Team Total - Over 0.5 Goals in the First Half is 1.25*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm, the most likely outcomes are 3:1 (9.41%), 2:1 (9.31%) and 3:0 (8.19%). All three are fairly close in probability, though 3:1 comes out as the most likely. This distribution reflects AZ Alkmaar's advantage while also leaving room for Willem II to score.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
AZ Alkmaar are the clear favourites for this match, with a noticeable class advantage, excellent form and home advantage all in their favour. Even so, there is little reason to expect four or more goals from the hosts: in their last seven home matches, they have consistently scored no more than three. AZ Alkmaar are capable of managing a game once they have taken the lead and do not always push for a heavy win. Our pick is therefore AZ Alkmaar Team Total - Under 3.5.
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Betting Tips: AZ Alkmaar - Willem 2 Tilburg
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