Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 11 May 2025
🔊 Which team will secure a spot in next season's Champions League? It's highly likely that the winner of this matchup will claim one of the five available slots. However, the loser will still have a shot at qualification. This outcome influences the teams' budgets and their image. Currently, Newcastle sit higher in the Premier League standings. Nonetheless, Chelsea are trailing only on tiebreakers. Therefore, there's no clear favorite for the clash set to unfold at St James' Park.
Head-to-Head
📊 Over the course of 42 head-to-head matches, Chelsea hold the upper hand with a 57 percent win rate. This season, they triumphed at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League with a 2-1 victory. On that occasion, Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer each found the net to secure three points. However, neither featured in the League Cup Round of 16, where Newcastle, fielding their strongest lineup, advanced thanks to goals from Alexander Isak and an own goal by Axel Disasi.
Despite Chelsea's historical dominance, the first halves of recent head-to-head encounters often end without a winner. This has been the case in their last seven Premier League meetings. Considering the teams' proximity in the league standings, it seems reasonable to bet on a draw in the first half.
Head-to-head statistics Newcastle - Chelsea
Newcastle United Team Overview
⚫ Newcastle have been on a remarkable run this spring, stringing together a series of victories to climb into the Premier League's top five. However, they have struggled to cement their place in the top five, dropping points in two of their last three matches. For instance, they had no answer for Aston Villa (1-4), a direct rival in the race for a Champions League spot.
🔗 Last weekend, the Magpies were on the brink of another defeat. They faced Brighton, who have recently been conceding at least two goals per game. Yet, Newcastle managed to find the back of the net only in the closing stages, converting a penalty for handball to secure a 1-1 draw.
Match Results: Newcastle United
Chelsea Team Overview
🔵 Chelsea have become heavily reliant on Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer. While one was sidelined with an injury and the other out of form, the team delivered unsatisfactory performances, even slipping out of the top five. However, with the return of their usual partnership, the Blues' fortunes have improved. They currently sit fifth in the league standings and are unbeaten in their last six matches.
🔗 In the previous round, Chelsea players formed a guard of honor for Liverpool before defeating them 3-1. It's clear that the Reds, having already secured the league title, were not at their best. Nonetheless, this does not diminish Chelsea's achievement, as they took the lead just three minutes into the game. Cole Palmer sealed the victory by converting a penalty in stoppage time and was named man of the match.
📌 On Thursday, Chelsea secured their place in the Conference League final. Holding a three-goal advantage from the away leg, they fielded a reserve side against Djurgården at Stamford Bridge. Despite this, they managed another win (1-0). The Pensioners will compete for the trophy against Real Betis.
Match Results: Chelsea
Latest news
Newcastle United
📝 Alexander Isak, who has netted 23 goals in the Premier League, is an enticing transfer target for many top clubs. However, Eddie Howe has expressed his desire to keep the striker: "I want to build a team, and I need a strong squad for next season. I hope there is a shared ambition here. We intend to keep our best players. I believe everyone at the club shares this desire." Previously, Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan emphasized the necessity of retaining Isak, rejecting even the most tempting offers.
❌ In the upcoming match, Lewis Hall, Jamaal Lascelles, and Matt Targett will be sidelined due to injuries. A significant loss will be Joelinton, who has missed two matches with a knee injury and will not return this season.
Chelsea
📣 Head coach Enzo Maresca is eager to clinch the Conference League title: “For me, it's crucial [to win the Conference League] because we have the opportunity to make this club and its fans the first in Europe to win all three European club tournaments. The Conference League could be the starting point for building a winning mentality to aim for more titles in the future.”
⚡️ Chelsea are set to play in a European final for the first time since 2021. The last time the Blues were in a final, they faced Manchester City in the Champions League and emerged victorious by the narrowest of margins.
❌ Wesley Fofana will miss the upcoming match as he recovers from injury, with Chelsea open to letting him go this summer. Also sidelined are Marc Guehi and Christopher Nkunku, whose roles at the club are far from pivotal.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The referee for the match is John Brooks, who has officiated 15 Premier League games this season. In only one of those matches did he show fewer than four yellow cards. On average, Brooks issues 5.27 yellow cards per game.
In matches involving Chelsea, an average of 5.3 yellow cards are handed out. Both head-to-head clashes this season have seen at least six bookings. Given the referee's statistics, it seems reasonable to bet on over 4.5 total yellow cards.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
Neither of the head-to-head encounters this season was particularly high-scoring. It's unlikely we'll see a goal fest at St. James' Park either. In 8 of Chelsea's last 9 away Premier League games, fewer than three goals were scored. Similarly, this applies to 15 of the last 17 head-to-head meetings. Therefore, a bet on under 3.5 total goals seems justified.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Both teams tend to deliver few corners in their head-to-head matches. For instance, Newcastle have not exceeded four corners in nine consecutive games, while Chelsea have managed a maximum of five in 6 out of 7 encounters at St. James' Park. This suggests a bet on under 10.5 total corners. Additionally, in 6 of Chelsea's last 7 away matches, the 10-corner mark was not reached.
Editor's Prediction
Two teams of roughly equal strength face off, both in decent form at the moment. Newcastle, with the backing of their fans, appear to be the favorites here. They've won all their Premier League home games in the spring stretch, while Chelsea have struggled on the road. Therefore, we suggest betting on the home team's individual total over 1.5 goals. The Magpies have surpassed this mark in their last five home league matches.
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Betting Tips: Newcastle United - Chelsea
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