Monaco vs Benfica Prediction 12 February 2025

🔊 Which team will come out on top in the first playoff match of the Champions League? It will take place at the "Louis II" stadium, where Monaco is considered the favorite. However, Benfica is unlikely to be inferior in class to one of the leaders of the French Ligue 1. Therefore, it is difficult to determine right away who will advance to the round of 16, where the opponent will be Barcelona or Liverpool. Thus, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

In the last 11 years, the opponents have played only one head-to-head match. It took place in November last year as part of the current Champions League season. Then the game was held at the "Louis II" stadium, where Monaco took the lead twice, even when they were down a player. However, in the 84th and 88th minutes, Cabral and Amdouni secured a victory for Benfica (3:2).

👑 Monaco

In January, Monaco hit a slump. They began to lose points in almost every match and even lost to Montpellier (1:2) in Ligue 1, which is at the bottom of the standings. In the next three rounds, the team conceded at least two goals, yet they defeated Rennes (3:2) and Auxerre (4:2). However, last weekend Monaco failed to avenge their loss to PSG in the French Super Cup (1:4). The team entered the Champions League playoffs from 17th place. This became possible after a victory over Aston Villa in the seventh round (1:0). In the final game, the guys were reduced to ten men as early as the 12th minute, resulting in a thrashing by Inter (0:3). Note that Christian Mavissa-Elebi received a red card and is suspended for the next match. Balogun, Ilenikhena, and Singo will also miss out due to injuries. It's worth noting that during the winter transfer window, Monaco signed Mika Biereth from Sturm, who integrated well into the team. For example, he scored a hat-trick against Auxerre. Al-Musrati was also loaned from Besiktas at the last minute.

🦅 Benfica

After Ruben Amorim left Sporting, Benfica got an excellent opportunity to reclaim the championship in Portugal. However, they have not yet taken advantage of their chance, losing points in various situations. For example, the "Eagles" lost to Casa Pia (1:3). Moreover, just a few days before that, they suffered a dramatic defeat to Barcelona (4:5), which undoubtedly affected the players' psychological state. Nevertheless, they managed to pull themselves together and defeat Juventus in Turin (2:0) in the last round. This allowed them to finish the league stage in 16th place and enter the playoffs. It's worth noting that Benfica was quite active towards the end of the transfer window. Jan-Niklas Beste returned to the Bundesliga and will continue his career at Freiburg. The club acquired Manu (Vitoria Guimaraes), Bruma (Braga), and loaned Andrea Belotti, who couldn't find his form even at Como. It's worth noting that Manu and Alexander Bah are ruled out as both tore their cruciate ligaments in their last national league match. Tiago Gouveia and Renato Sanches are also definitely out due to long-term injuries. Recently, Arthur Cabral joined them.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Maurizio Mariani (Italy). This season he has officiated four Champions League matches and awarded penalties in three of them. On average, he showed 4.5 yellow cards per game but never sent anyone off.

In this Champions League season, Benfica receives yellow cards more frequently - 2.4 compared to 2.1. Moreover, matches involving them average 5.3 warnings. Monaco's corresponding figure is lower but still quite high (4.8). Considering the referee's statistics, it's worth considering a bet on total yellow cards over 4. Especially since these opponents have already met this season, and there were seven warnings issued by the referee then.

⚽️ Goals Prediction

Benfica has scored in 10 consecutive matches. Moreover, only one of their last 10 away games ended without a goal for them. On the other hand, Monaco has scored in seven consecutive home games. Therefore, a bet on both teams to score (Yes) seems likely. It was a successful bet in their head-to-head match during the league stage.

🚩 Corners Prediction

In the tournament, Benfica averages 4.1 corners per game. Meanwhile, Monaco allows opponents 3.8 corners on average. In their last head-to-head match, the "Eagles" took seven corner kicks. However, they played with a numerical advantage for quite some time then. The upcoming match will likely follow a different scenario, so it's prudent to trust the statistics and choose Benfica's total corners under 5.5.

📝 Match Prediction

Monaco is considered a slight favorite with some reservations. However, in the new year, the team has been showing unconvincing results. They even dropped to fourth place in Ligue 1 after being PSG's main pursuer for a long time. In their previous head-to-head match, one of the key moments was a sending-off for Monaco. But even before that, Benfica played at least equally well. Therefore, there is a high probability of a draw in the upcoming match, perhaps with a score of 2:2.

The previous head-to-head match was extremely emotional. There was a sending-off, seven yellow cards, and five goals scored. A full repeat should not be expected; however, we advise paying attention to yellow cards. In half of each team's Champions League matches, there were at least five warnings; moreover, Monaco reached four warnings in six out of eight games. In such a situation, as a key bet, we propose total yellow cards over 4.