Cruzeiro vs Corinthians Prediction 11 December 2025
🔊 While the Brazilian champion has been decided, the national cup winner is yet to be determined. In the first leg of the semifinals at the "Mineirão," Cruzeiro and Corinthians will clash, having finished their Serie A campaigns quite differently. The hosts secured a top-three spot, whereas the visitors barely managed to finish thirteenth. Cruzeiro last lifted the Copa do Brasil in 2018, while Corinthians claimed it back in 2009. The winner of this two-legged tie will advance to the final to face the victor of the Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense matchup. Heading into this encounter, the team from Belo Horizonte appears to be the favorite, having comfortably defeated the São Paulo side 3-0 in their league meeting.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 23 November 2025 and ended with a scoreline of 3-0. Here's a comparative breakdown of the stats from that encounter (Cruzeiro were the home side):
- possession: 47% vs 53%;
- corners: 9 vs 3;
- fouls: 18 vs 8;
- yellow cards: 3 vs 2;
- shots on target: 7 vs 0.
📊 Statistical preview of the official encounters between Cruzeiro and Corinthians:
- 36 matches played;
- home wins - 15, away wins - 15, draws - 6;
- goals scored - 37 for Cruzeiro, 34 for Corinthians;
- average total goals in the 1st half - 0.83, in the 2nd half - 1.14;
- average total goals per match - 1.97.
Head-to-head statistics Cruzeiro - Corinthians
Cruzeiro Team Overview
The last official match took place on during the 38th round of Serie A, with Santos as the home team and Cruzeiro as the visitors. The match concluded with a 3-0 victory.
Here are the game statistics (Cruzeiro vs Santos):
- possession percentage: 46% vs 54%;
- corner kicks: 3 vs 9;
- fouls: 12 vs 8;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 4 vs 7.
🔵 Leonardo Jardim's team secured third place with a game to spare, amassing 70 points. In the first half of the season, the "Foxes" led the league, but their form dipped slightly towards the mid-season. Notably, Kaio Jorge emerged as the league's top scorer, tallying 29 points (21 goals and 8 assists).
⚪ In the Brazilian Cup, the Foxes reached the semifinals, defeating Vila Nova, Regatas, and Atletico Mineiro. Currently, Cruzeiro approach the match in less than ideal form-securing only one win in their last six games (a 3-0 victory over Corinthians in round 35 of the league), followed by two draws and a defeat. The lack of competitive motivation was evident in their recent heavy loss to Santos (0-3), who needed the win to secure their spot in Serie A.
Match Results: Cruzeiro
Corinthians Team Overview
The visitors' last official match took place on during the 38th round of Serie A (home team - Corinthians, visitors - Juventude). The game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Here are the match stats (Corinthians vs Juventude):
- possession: 57% vs 43%;
- corners: 4 vs 7;
- fouls: 18 vs 17;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 1;
- shots on target: 4 vs 4.
⚪ Corinthians' final standing in Serie A hinged on the very last matchday: Dorival Júnior's squad faced the risk of dropping out of the top 13, thus missing out on the Copa Sudamericana spot. In their final game, the "Timão" dropped points at home against Juventude (1-1), a team for whom the match was inconsequential as their hopes of avoiding relegation had already vanished several rounds earlier. Fortunately for the São Paulo club, the circumstances played in their favor, allowing them to finish the season in 13th place.
⚫ Their winless streak now stands at four games: two draws and two losses. How they will fare against Cruzeiro, a team that handed them a heavy defeat just a month and a half ago, remains uncertain. In the Cup, Corinthians have progressed past Novorizontino, Palmeiras, and Athletico Paranaense.
Match Results: Corinthians
Latest news
Cruzeiro
❌ Due to injuries, the team will be without their attacking players: Wanderson and Marquinhos.
Corinthians
❌ Yuri Alberto, the team's top scorer with 12 points (10 goals and 2 assists) in the league, will miss the match due to a groin injury. Midfielder Rodrigo Garro is also unavailable, and defender Andre Ramalho remains doubtful.
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 36;
- First-half wins for home team - 9; for away team - 2; draws - 7;
- Average first-half total: 0.83;
- Today's home team averages 0.47 goals, visitors - 0.36.
First-Half Statistics: Cruzeiro (home) vs Corinthians (away)
- Matches played in the tournament: 3 vs 3;
- Wins: 2 (66.67%) vs 2 (66.67%);
- Losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
- Draws: 1 (33.33%) vs 1 (33.33%);
- Average goals scored: 1 vs 0.67;
- Average goals conceded: 0 vs 0.
Last 10 Matches (overall):
- Wins: 5 vs 4;
- Losses: 2 vs 4;
- Draws: 3 vs 2;
- Average first-half total: 1.3 (scored - 0.8, conceded - 0.5) vs 0.8 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.4).
- Corinthians have lost the first half in 6 of their last 7 away head-to-head encounters against this team.
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 36;
- Home wins - 15, Away wins - 15, Draws - 6.
- Cruzeiro have covered a +1.5 handicap in 17 of the last 18 head-to-head meetings against this team.
- Cruzeiro have covered a +1.5 handicap at home in 16 consecutive head-to-head matches.
- Cruzeiro have covered a +1.5 handicap at home in 25 straight matches.
- Cruzeiro have covered a +1.5 handicap in 12 of their last 13 games.
- Cruzeiro have covered a +1.5 handicap in 6 consecutive matches (Copa do Brasil).
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Today's home team averages - 1.03 goals, away team - 0.94;
- Average total goals in head-to-head matches - 1.97;
- Both teams scored: overall - 11 times; at the home team's field - 5 times.
Statistics: Cruzeiro vs Corinthians
- Average tournament total: 1.83 vs 1.33;
- Average goals scored: 1.83 vs 1.33;
- Average first-half total: 0.67 vs 0.5;
- Average second-half total: 1.17 vs 0.83;
- Cruzeiro: average home total in the tournament - 1.33;
- Corinthians: average away total in the tournament - 1.33;
- Last 10 matches (average total): 1.4 (home - 1.8) vs 1.2 (away - 0.75).
- Total under 2.5 goals has occurred in 6 consecutive Corinthians matches (Copa do Brasil).
Corners Prediction
Cruzeiro: Statistics
- Season: average tournament total - 7.5; at home - 8.67;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 5.7; at home - 4.6.
Corinthians: Statistics
- Season: average tournament total - 4.17, away - 4;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 5.2; away - 4.25.
- Cruzeiro have taken more than 3.5 corners in 8 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings against this team.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 36;
- Both teams scored overall - 11 times;
- At the home team's field - 5 times.
Correct Score Prediction
Frequent Scorelines (Current Season):
- Most common scoreline in the tournament: 1-0 (15/113, 13.3%), 1-1 (15/113, 13.3%);
- Cruzeiro most often finishes home games: 2-0 (2/3, 66.7%);
- Corinthians most often plays away: 0-1 (2/3, 66.7%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top-3 outcomes:
1-0 - 20.89% (odds 5.5)
0-0 - 13.79% (odds 7.6)
2-0 - 11.69% (odds 7)
- Cruzeiro have won by a score of 2-0 in three consecutive matches (Copa do Brasil).
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The first semifinal clash promises to be intense, despite the seemingly clear favorite. Cruzeiro, being one of the top three teams in the league, show more consistent results over the season and hold the home advantage. Their recent thrashing of Corinthians in Serie A only boosts the confidence of the "Foxes". However, their current form raises some concerns: with just one win in their last six matches, there's a hint of fatigue as the season winds down.
Corinthians finished the league in a lackluster 13th place and are also in a slump, enduring a four-match winless streak. "Timão" clearly struggle both defensively and offensively, as evidenced by their recent game against Juventude.
Motivation could be the key factor here: for both teams, the Cup is their only chance to salvage the season and claim silverware. Cruzeiro appear to be the classier side, but Corinthians have the ability to rise to the occasion in a one-off match. Given the cautious nature of a semifinal and the hosts' less-than-perfect form, it's unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. Our prediction: total goals under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Cruzeiro - Corinthians
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