Troyes vs Marseille Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 11 October 2026
🔊 Marseille travel to a side sitting above them in the table. Troyes have four points and are 16th, while Marseille have three and are 17th. The head-to-head record, though, favours the visitors: in their last 16 Ligue 1 meetings, Troyes have beaten Marseille just once.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have not met for three and a half years. In the 2022/23 season, Marseille took all six points off Troyes. In January 2023 at the Stade de l'Aube, goals from Chancel Mbemba and Jordan Veretout gave Marseille a 2-0 win. Troyes were relegated at the end of that season and have only now returned to Ligue 1, as Ligue 2 champions.
Head-to-head statistics Troyes - Marseille
Troyes: Ligue 2 champions struggle at the back and fire 19 shots without scoring
Troyes won Ligue 2 with one of the best defences in the division. In the top flight, Stéphane Dumont's side have conceded 11 goals in five matches. Their worst result at home came against Strasbourg: Troyes took the lead in the ninth minute but ultimately conceded six goals. Two away defeats followed, at Lille and Angers, and the newly promoted side dropped to 16th place, into the play-off zone.
Troyes lack cutting edge in attack, and that was most evident at Angers: 19 shots, only three on target, and a 0-2 defeat. The team's four goals this season have been scored by four different players, one of them from the penalty spot. Their only win came at Lorient, where Troyes had less of the ball but went into half-time two goals up after a penalty and a quick counter-attack.
Match Results: Troyes
Marseille: five straight defeats after a bright start
Bruno Génésio began his time at Marseille with a thumping win over Strasbourg, in which Amine Gouiri scored twice. Since then the team have lost five matches in a row across all competitions, including an away trip to Istanbul in the Europa League. The most recent defeat came against PSG: Ángel Gómez equalised, but three minutes later Marquinhos put the Parisians back in front, and Timothy Weah picked up a second yellow card. Marseille now have three points and sit 17th.
Away from home in the league, Marseille have yet to score: they lost without finding the net at both Monaco and Rennes. After the break, Génésio refused to call the situation a crisis, but acknowledged that action was needed urgently. He believes the squad currently lacks physical fitness and is giving opponents too many chances, though he has not changed his system. Marseille now face five matches in 15 days, the first of them away at Troyes.
Match Results: Olympique Marseille
Latest news
Troyes
❓ Dumont has four players unavailable. Ivann Titi and Ismaël Boura are recovering from long-term injuries, while Merwan Ifnaoui and Paolo Gozzi are also out injured. Alexandre Flipono, who missed the two matches before the break, has returned to the squad.
Olympique Marseille
❓ Genesio is without Timothy Weah, who is suspended after receiving a red card against PSG. According to the local press, several options have been tried at right-back, including 20-year-old Kelian Bézafa. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg picked up a thigh injury on international duty with Denmark and, according to the French press, is expected to be out for around two weeks. Derek Cornelius injured his hip with Canada and is not expected back until 2027. Amine Gouiri also suffered a thigh injury while on duty with Algeria, but Genesio said on 9 October that he should be ready by Sunday. Bamo Meïté twisted his ankle, and a decision on his availability will be made after the final training session. Amine Harit is also a doubt after picking up a knee problem following the PSG match. Geoffrey Kondogbia is gradually returning to the group after a muscle injury, but his trip to Troyes is uncertain according to press reports from 9 October. Tocquinho Nnadi has returned to fitness.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI - Troyes: Beach - Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Ouzenadji - Mille, Diop - Karim, Gomis, Nkada - Le Douaron.
📋 Predicted starting XI - Marseille: De Lange - Garcia, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson - Abdelli, Nnadi - Harit, Gouiri, Paixao - Maupay.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
At home, Troyes have scored in 20 of their last 22 matches. Marseille, meanwhile, have conceded in each of their last four Ligue 1 rounds, and away from home since the break they have conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. We expect the hosts to score. Our pick: Troyes to Score - Yes.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Troyes have taken more than four corners in six consecutive matches. Across their last 10 matches they have won 66 corners, while their opponents have won half as many - just 26. Marseille tend to allow corners: their opponents have earned 48 corners in the same 10-match span. Even against Angers, Troyes took 11 corners to their opponents' two. We expect the hosts to take at least five. Our pick: Troyes Team Total Corners - Over 4.5.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
More than three yellow cards have been shown in 7 of Marseille's last 8 Ligue 1 matches. However, across their last 10 matches, Marseille's own players have received more than half of all bookings in those games: 21 of 40. Troyes have been much tidier by comparison, with their players picking up just 14 yellows over the same period. We therefore do not expect the hosts to receive a third card. Our pick: Troyes Team Total Yellow Cards - Under 2.5.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Fewer than four goals have been scored in 8 of Marseille's last 9 away matches. In Ligue 1, Marseille have seen more than four goals in just one of their last 14 matches. In Ligue 1 head-to-head meetings at Troyes, this fixture is particularly low-scoring: fewer than three goals in 9 of the last 10. We're expecting a cautious game and a 1-1 draw. The bet is Total Goals - Under 3.5. Predicted score: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Troyes - Olympique Marseille
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