Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔊 Monaco sit top of Ligue 1, with Paris Brunner responsible for half of their league goals-four out of eight. However, the 20-year-old German will miss their first match after the international break due to suspension. Toulouse have their own concerns: Jens Berthel Askou’s side only picked up their first win of the season right before the break.
Head-to-Head
📊 Toulouse’s last two visits to the Louis II in 2023 and 2024 both ended in victories for the visitors. Since then, Monaco have hosted this opponent twice, shutting them out on both occasions and taking all three points each time. Their most recent encounter came in April in Toulouse, where the sides played out a draw.
Head-to-head statistics Monaco - Toulouse
Monaco: Filipe Luis Enjoys Record-Breaking Start
Filipe Luis took charge of Monaco this summer and immediately etched his name into the club’s history books. No previous Monaco manager had ever won their first five competitive matches, but the Brazilian pulled it off: two victories in the Europa Conference League qualifying play-offs and three more in Ligue 1. The streak was halted by a draw in Strasbourg, marking the only points Monaco have dropped so far. Heading into the international break, Monaco sat atop the table with 13 points from five matches.
The most recent three points didn’t come easy. Just before the break, Monaco edged past Lens 2-1, thanks to a Jonathan Gradit own goal in the 84th minute. In stoppage time, Lukáš Hrádecký produced a crucial save to deny a powerful header from Mathieu Udol. After the match, Filipe Luis admitted that his side is starting to relish the challenge of grinding out results when things get tough.
Match Results: Monaco
Toulouse: 41 shots without a goal
Jens Berthel Askou arrived at Toulouse from Scottish side Motherwell, and his team have been on the front foot since the opening rounds, showing plenty of attacking intent. The main issue has been finishing: across their first two home fixtures, Toulouse fired off 41 shots but failed to find the net. Against Lille, visiting keeper Berke Özer racked up nine saves, and Toulouse slipped to a narrow defeat.
It was Kasper Tengstedt who finally broke the deadlock: just before the international break, the Dane struck twice in two minutes to secure a brace against Le Havre. Defensive frailties remain a concern, though-Toulouse have conceded in all five rounds so far, shipping a total of nine goals. With five points on the board, Askou’s side currently sit 13th in the table.
Match Results: Toulouse
Latest news
Monaco
❓ Filipe Luís faces a major setback with the suspension of Paris Brunner. The league’s disciplinary committee has handed the forward a two-match ban for his gesture towards the Strasbourg stands after scoring, and the clash against Toulouse is the first he’ll miss. The manager experimented with attacking options in a friendly against Pisa on October 3: Ansu Fati and Takumi Minamino both featured for the first time since last season, while Folarin Balogun and Mathys Ablin also saw minutes. Stanis Idumbo has returned to group training on a limited basis after a lower back injury and is hopeful of making Saturday’s squad. Aleksandr Golovin left the Russian national team camp early after taking a knock to his shin, but league sources report the injury is not considered serious. Denis Zakaria missed Switzerland duty due to adductor issues, but made his return in that same friendly.
Toulouse
❓ The main concern for Askou revolves around captain Rasmus Nicolaisen. The centre-back has been sidelined with a calf injury, missing the fixtures against Lorient and Le Havre, and on October 3rd he also sat out a friendly against Pau. As of October 5th, according to local media, he had yet to rejoin full training, which means Mark McKenzie and Senny Kumbassa are expected to anchor the heart of the defence once again. On a positive note, Aron Dønnum-who missed the start of the campaign for personal reasons-along with Abou Francis and Ismaël Diallo, all managed to get valuable minutes during the international break. There was good news from the French national team camp as well: on October 5th, Guillaume Rest made his senior debut, earning a place in the starting XI against Belgium.
Probable line-ups
📋 Monaco’s likely starting XI: Hradecky - Vanderson, Dier, Sane, Nazinho - Diop, Camara, Zakaria, Golovin - Abline, Balogun.
📋 Toulouse’s likely starting XI: Restes - Messali, Koumbassa, McKenzie, Tape - Jorgensen, Sigur, Casseres - Azizi, Russell-Rowe, Tengstedt.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Toulouse have both scored and conceded in eight of their last nine away fixtures. Their recent 2-2 draw against Lorient is a prime example. On the other side, Monaco have found the net in each of their last 20 Ligue 1 head-to-head clashes. The league leaders have scored eight goals across their last five matches, while Toulouse’s back line has shipped nine in that span. The pick here is for both teams to score.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Monaco have not taken more than six corners in any of their last five home meetings with Toulouse in Ligue 1. In fact, across their last seven league fixtures overall, Monaco have only surpassed six corners once. The line is set with good reason: over their last 10 competitive matches, Monaco have earned 47 corners, while Toulouse’s opponents have racked up 63. The recommended bet is Monaco under 6.5 corners (individual total).
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Toulouse have committed at least 14 fouls in eight of their last nine Ligue 1 outings. Those infractions often lead to bookings: over the last 10 competitive matches, Toulouse players have collected 22 yellow cards. In the same stretch, Monaco’s opponents have received 14. On Saturday, Askou’s side will be under pressure from a Monaco team that presses aggressively under Filipe Luis. The tip: Toulouse over 1.5 yellow cards (individual total).
📌 Editorial Prediction
Monaco come in as favourites, but high-scoring games are a rarity in this fixture. In six of the last seven Ligue 1 head-to-heads, Toulouse have either taken points or lost by no more than a single goal. In fact, Toulouse have only suffered a defeat by more than one goal once in their last 22 Ligue 1 away matches. Monaco will also have to cope without their top scorer, Paris Brunner, which leaves the league leaders with less firepower up front than usual. We expect the hosts to edge it, but only by a narrow margin. Our pick: Toulouse +1.5 handicap. Predicted scoreline: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Monaco - Toulouse
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