Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 3 November 2026
🔊 Atletico Madrid host Bayern Munich at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on November 3 in the fourth round of the Champions League league phase. Atletico have taken four points from three matches, while Bayern have five, leaving both sides eager to climb the table. Atletico are unbeaten in nine matches, while Bayern arrive after two successive Champions League draws and a high-scoring encounter with Borussia Dortmund, with significant injury concerns. Atletico’s home record and Bayern’s attacking firepower set up an intriguing contest.
🔁 Stay tuned for the latest team news. We’ll add updates on line-ups, injuries and other developments that could shape the match.
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid are strong at home
📊 Bayern Munich have won three of the teams’ six previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won twice, and the other match ended in a draw. Bayern Munich also lead 8-4 on aggregate. In Madrid, though, it is a different story: Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in three home games against Bayern Munich, with two wins and a draw. Their most recent meeting in Spain, in December 2020, ended 1-1.
Head-to-head statistics Atletico Madrid - Bayern
Atletico Madrid: Impressive home form
Diego Simeone’s side have gradually found their rhythm after an unconvincing start to the season. Atletico Madrid sit second in La Liga with 28 points from 11 matches and have won eight of their last nine games in all competitions. On Saturday, they beat Levante 2-0 away from home, though the scoreline tells only part of the story: Levante outshot Atletico 20-11 and had the better expected goals figure, 1.68 to 0.64. Atletico had to work hard defensively to see out the clean-sheet win.
Atletico Madrid have four points in the Champions League. After losing 2-1 to Liverpool, they beat Manchester United 2-0 before drawing 1-1 with Stuttgart. In that most recent European fixture, Atletico came from behind to take a point in Germany despite playing with 10 men from the 64th minute. They have scored four goals and conceded three in three matches, keeping one clean sheet. Crucially, Atletico remain unbeaten at home this season: five wins and a draw from six games, with 13 goals scored and just three conceded.
Match Results: Atletico Madrid
Bayern Munich: Injuries weaken attack
Bayern Munich lead the Bundesliga with 18 points after eight matches, although they were held to a 2-2 draw by Borussia Dortmund last time out. Bayern went ahead twice but could not hold on. They outshot their opponents 23-12, created six clear-cut chances and won a penalty that Harry Kane failed to convert. Given their dominance, the dropped points were a frustrating result.
Bayern Munich have five points in the Champions League. After a convincing win over Bodø/Glimt, they drew with Viking and Arsenal. Their ten goals in three matches are more than Atletico Madrid have scored, but the five they have conceded suggest their defence is far from flawless. The match against Viking was particularly concerning, with Bayern allowing their opponents to score three times. Defensive lapses like that could prove costly in Madrid, where Atletico know how to punish mistakes.
Match Results: Bayern Munich
Latest news
Atletico Madrid
❌ The main selection concerns are Koke and Johnny Cardoso. Koke has returned to full training, but it remains unclear whether he will start. Cardoso is still training individually and, according to the latest reports, is highly likely to miss the match. Morten Hjulmand is suspended after being sent off in Stuttgart in the previous round.
Bayern Munich
❌ The visitors’ biggest concern is their growing list of attacking absentees. Gnabry has suffered a hamstring injury in his left leg, while Saibari has undergone surgery after damaging his ankle ligaments. Luis Diaz and Jamal Musiala also remain sidelined, and Michael Olise’s status has yet to be confirmed following an injury against Dortmund. There is further uncertainty over goalkeepers Manuel Neuer and Jonas Urbig.
🏥 Bayern Munich are also still without head coach Vincent Kompany as he recovers from health issues. His assistant Aaron Danks has taken charge in recent matches. With several attacking players unavailable, Bayern have fewer options to rotate and may have to adjust their usual attacking setup.
Predicted lineups
📋 Atletico Madrid predicted XI: Oblak - Pubill, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo - Simeone, Llorente, Barrios, Baena - Lee Kang-in, Alvarez.
📋 Bayern Munich predicted XI: Urbig - Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Laimer - Kimmich, Pavlovic - Karl, Brown, Davies - Kane.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Atletico Madrid have received four yellow cards in their first three Champions League matches, while Bayern Munich have picked up five. This looks set to be a tense contest: Atletico Madrid are quick to engage in challenges, while Bayern Munich press aggressively after losing possession. French referee François Letexier will take charge. He has officiated 10 matches since the start of the club season, showing an average of around four yellow cards per game. Given both teams’ styles and the stakes, over 3.5 total yellow cards looks a reasonable bet at odds of 1.46*.
⚽ Goals prediction
Bayern Munich have scored ten goals in three Champions League matches, while Atletico Madrid have scored four. Bayern have been far more prolific, though injuries in attack could limit their threat in Madrid. Harry Kane remains available for the visitors, having scored four goals and provided two assists in three league-phase matches. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, can draw on home support to create regular chances.
Atletico Madrid’s home record adds weight to the case for goals: they have scored 13 in six matches. Bayern Munich also score on the road, but have conceded six times in their last four away games. Both teams’ attacking quality, coupled with Bayern’s defensive lapses away from home, points towards at least three goals. Prediction: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.41*.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Bayern Munich won 24 corners in their first three Champions League matches - an average of eight per game. Atletico Madrid had 11 over the same period, or around 3.7 per game. That gap is significant: Bayern Munich are more likely to turn sustained attacks into cutbacks, crosses and blocked shots. Despite missing several wide players, they still spend long spells on the attack and keep putting the opposition penalty area under pressure. If Atletico Madrid are forced to defend in a low block, the visitors could win several corners in quick succession. Prediction: Bayern Munich over 4.5 team corners.
😱 Risky bet
Atletico Madrid’s strong home record against German clubs and Bayern Munich’s selection problems give the hosts reason to hope for a good result. Even with a depleted squad, though, Bayern Munich still have one of Europe’s most dangerous strikers. Both sides may be more cautious than usual: Atletico Madrid will not want to leave themselves exposed, while Bayern Munich may focus on keeping possession and limiting turnovers. If the hosts fail to make their early advantage count, the match could end level. Prediction: draw at odds of 3.87*.
🎯 Safer Bet
Both teams can create dangerous chances, but even with their strong scoring records this season, five or more goals are far from a given. Atletico Madrid are well organised at home, while Bayern Munich may struggle to maintain their usual attacking depth after losing several forwards. Even if the game opens up, there is plenty of room for this bet to land. Prediction: under 5 goals at odds of 1.12*.
🚀 Player Prop Bet
Harry Kane has scored four goals and provided two assists in his first three Champions League matches. He has taken 16 shots, with eight on target. The England striker remains Bayern Munich’s main finisher and, even with several teammates unavailable, should still receive plenty of service in the box. Atletico Madrid defend tightly, and injuries in attack could make it harder for Bayern Munich to create their usual number of chances. That puts even more responsibility on Kane, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, to lead the way in this crucial fixture. Prediction: Harry Kane to score or provide an assist. Odds: 1.61*.
👀 If the match goes off script
At the Metropolitano, Simeone’s side have scored at least twice in five of their six matches this season, and their scoring streak in home Champions League games now stands at 20. Bayern Munich’s away defending is a concern: they have conceded seven goals across their last four away matches. If Atletico Madrid can sustain pressure in the opposition half and regularly get the ball into the box, two goals for the hosts would be no surprise. Prediction: Atletico Madrid to score over 1.5 goals.
*Odds are indicative, are not tied to any specific bookmaker and may change.
⭐ Editor’s prediction
Atletico Madrid have a significant advantage thanks to their strong home run and impressive record against Bayern Munich in Madrid. Bayern remain a major attacking threat, but the absences of Gnabry, Saibari, Diaz and Musiala, along with uncertainty over Olise, leave them short of options. Vincent Kompany’s absence from the touchline could also be a factor. Kane can offset some of those losses, though, and Bayern continue to score freely. Expect a tight contest with chances at both ends, but the hosts could capitalise on the visitors’ personnel problems. Final pick: Atletico Madrid to avoid defeat. Correct score prediction: 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Madrid - Bayern Munich
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