Benfica vs Porto Prediction 8 March 2026
🔊 This is the marquee match of the round in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. The stakes are incredibly high: if Benfica lose, they virtually kiss their title hopes goodbye, while Porto would then have only one rival to contend with. You already know who's playing. We're offering an insightful prediction for this encounter, with the betting tip at the very end.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 14 January 2026 and ended with a 1-0 scoreline. Here's a comparative breakdown of the stats from that encounter (home team - Porto):
- possession: 47% vs 53%;
- corner kicks: 7 vs 3;
- fouls: 14 vs 12;
- yellow cards: 5 vs 6;
- shots on target: 5 vs 3.
📊 Statistical preview of the official encounters between Benfica and Porto:
- 52 matches played;
- home wins - 14, away wins - 26, draws - 12;
- goals scored - 55 for the hosts, 74 for the visitors;
- average goals in the first half - 1.31, in the second half - 1.17;
- average total goals per match - 2.48.
Head-to-head statistics Benfica - Porto
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
🔴 With ten rounds remaining in the Portuguese championship, Benfica trail Porto by seven points. They need to secure victories; otherwise, their objectives for the season might slip away. Recently, the Eagles concluded their journey in the Champions League, and now they face a crucial league fixture. Just a reminder: Benfica remain unbeaten in the Primeira Liga this season. Domestically, they have been exceptional, securing four consecutive wins.
⚪️ In their latest match, they triumphed over a resilient Gil Vicente (2-1). It was an intriguing battle. Let's put it this way: Benfica played efficiently, responding to their opponent with bursts of activity. Their xG stood at 2.24. Overall, the team showcased their class, even allowing an equalizer at one point. The attack was quiet that day, but other heroes emerged-particularly center-back António Silva, who found the back of the net.
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Porto Team Overview
🔵 The "Dragons" have slowed down, but no one said it would be easy. They've played a lot of matches, and fatigue is starting to show. Porto are still winning most of their games, but it's not as convincing as before. With the Europa League playoffs approaching, their lead in the league isn't that significant, and their campaign for the Cup is now in doubt.
⚪️ A tough schedule lies ahead. There's a four-day gap between the match against Sporting and Benfica. First, they have the Cup, followed by a league match. The encounter with Sporting ended in a 0-1 defeat, which could impact their morale. It's also concerning that they managed just one shot on target against the "Lions," a particularly poor showing. Their xG in that game was only 0.32, likely reflecting the absence of Samu.
Match Results: Porto
Latest news
Benfica Lisbon
🎙 José Mourinho was not pleased with the refereeing in the match against Gil Vicente (2-1) and unleashed criticism after the final whistle: "The situation leading up to the corner from which we scored seemed like a penalty to me at first glance-far more obvious than the one given against António Silva in the match against Casa Pia. I'm willing to accept that the referee might have missed it, but it seemed like VAR was having coffee at that moment."
🎙 Once the emotions settled, the Portuguese manager apologized to the officiating team through club channels: "I had the chance to review the incident from a different angle, and what initially appeared to be a penalty was not confirmed. I apologize for my comments following the match."
❌ Benfica will definitely be without Bruma and João Veloso. Georgiy Sudakov's participation in the match remains in doubt.
Porto
🎙 Francesco Farioli reflected on the defeat in the first leg of the Portuguese Cup semi-final: “We played well, especially in the first half. Unfortunately, the result wasn't what we wanted, but we've only completed half the journey. We'll give it our all at Dragão. We're ready for the second leg. I wanted these players on the field today, and they performed well. I had to make some forced substitutions, like taking Alberto off due to a yellow card that really shouldn't have been given.”
❌ As previously mentioned, Porto will be without Samu. Nehuén Pérez and Luuk de Jong remain sidelined. It's unclear whether Borja Sainz will play. Jan Bednarek's participation is also in doubt. Veteran Thiago Silva is still out of action. There are quite a few issues to contend with.
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 52;
- First-half wins at home for hosts - 5; for visitors away - 4; number of draws - 12;
- Average first-half total: 1.31;
- Today's home team scores on average 0.54, while the visitors net 0.77.
First-Half Stats: Benfica Lisbon (home) vs Porto (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 12 vs 12;
- wins: 8 (66.67%) vs 5 (41.67%);
- losses: 0 (0%) vs 1 (8.33%);
- draws: 4 (33.33%) vs 6 (50%);
- Average goals scored: 1.75 vs 0.83;
- Average goals conceded: 0.33 vs 0.25.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- wins: 5 vs 4;
- losses: 0 vs 2;
- draws: 5 vs 4;
- Average first-half total: 1.4 (scored - 1.1, conceded - 0.3) vs 1 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.4).
- Benfica Lisbon have drawn in the 1st half in last 5 home games against Porto.
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 52;
- home team wins - 14, away team wins - 26, draws - 12.
Statistics: Benfica Lisbon vs Porto
- matches played in the tournament: 24 vs 24;
- wins: 17 vs 21;
- win percentage: 71% vs 88%;
- losses: 0 vs 1;
- draws: 7 vs 2.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 6 vs 6;
- losses: 3 vs 2;
- draws: 1 vs 2.
- Porto won with a +1.5 handicap in 12 of last 14 away games against Benfica Lisbon.
- Porto won with a +1.5 handicap in last 27 games (Liga Portugal).
- Porto won with a +1.5 handicap in 19 of last 20 away games.
- Porto won with a +1.5 handicap in last 18 games.
- Porto won with a +1.5 handicap in last 13 away games (Liga Portugal).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.06, the guests - 1.42;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.48;
- both teams scored: overall - 25; at the home team's field - 12.
Statistics: Benfica Lisbon vs Porto
- average total in the tournament: 2.71 vs 2.29;
- average total goals scored: 2.13 vs 1.96;
- average total in the 1st half: 1.13 vs 0.79;
- average total in the 2nd half: 1 vs 1.17;
- Benfica Lisbon: average total at home in the tournament - 2.33;
- Porto: average total away in the tournament - 1.92;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.8 (home - 2.6) vs 1.5 (away - 0.8).
- Benfica Lisbon have scored under 1.5 goals in 12 of last 14 home games against Porto.
- Benfica Lisbon have scored under 1.5 goals in 10 of last 11 home games against Porto (Liga Portugal).
Prediction on corners
Benfica Lisbon: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 6.38; at home field - 6.92;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 7.1; at home field - 6.8.
Porto: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.67, away - 5.67;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6; away - 5.8.
- Benfica Lisbon have taken under 6.5 corners in 7 of last 8 games against Porto (Liga Portugal).
- Benfica Lisbon have taken under 6.5 corners in last 5 games against Porto.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 52;
- both teams scored all-time - 25 times;
- on the home team’s field - 12 times.
Statistics: Benfica Lisbon vs Porto
- number of matches played in the tournament: 24 vs 24;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 12 vs 7;
- number of BTTS matches for Benfica Lisbon at home - 7 (58%);
- number of BTTS matches for Porto away - 3 (25%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 5;
- BTTS matches for Benfica Lisbon at home - 2 (40%);
- BTTS matches for Porto away - 2 (40%).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (23/216, 10.6%);
- Benfica Lisbon at home most often finish matches: 1:1 (3/12, 25%);
- Porto away most often play: 0:1 (4/12, 33.3%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 13.15% (odds 6)
1:0 - 10.98% (odds 7)
0:0 - 8.74% (odds 8.5)
Editor's Prediction
Porto rarely concedes heavily, not even against Sporting did they falter significantly. Currently, the team is striving for stability to cover their squad issues. And what about Benfica? There's a sense that this side can rise to the occasion, given the high stakes of this match's victory. Opening up the game seems unnecessary, and one wonders if José Mourinho's squad is even built for that style of play? We foresee a low-scoring affair here, despite what a neutral fan might hope for. We're going with under 2.5 goals. This option appears to be the most reasonable choice.
No comments
Betting Tips: Benfica Lisbon - Porto
in last 5 home games against Porto..svg)
in 11 of last 12 away games (Primeira Liga).in 7 of last 8 away games.
in 7 of last 8 games (Primeira Liga).in last 5 home games (Primeira Liga).in 14 of last 16 games (Primeira Liga).in 12 of last 13 away games (Primeira Liga).
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
