Argentina vs Benin Prediction 6 October 2026
🔊 Argentina are rounding off the international window with a match that carries far more weight than a typical friendly. Lionel Messi will play his final match for the national team at the Monumental, so the evening in Buenos Aires is sure to be an emotional one before a ball is even kicked. The team themselves come into the game in excellent form, having comfortably beaten Bolivia after the World Cup and then thrashing Burkina Faso. Benin represent a very different level of opposition, though Gernot Rohr's side have arrived in Argentina in good shape and will look to avoid the match becoming a mere formality. The main question here is less about who wins and more about how large the home side's margin of victory will be.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off to make sure you don't miss any important changes.
The national teams are set to face each other for the first time
📊 Argentina and Benin have never previously met at international level. For Benin, this will be their first match against a South American side. Argentina, meanwhile, have extensive experience of playing African nations, so in terms of international experience the hosts hold a very significant advantage.
Argentina’s dominant form
Argentina barely noticed the transition from the World Cup into the new international cycle. In their first two home friendlies after the tournament, Lionel Scaloni's side beat Bolivia 4-0 and then thrashed Burkina Faso 7-0. The second result was particularly telling: Argentina were already 5-0 up by half-time, and their opponents effectively stopped coping with the relentless pressure. Scaloni also had the opportunity to give extensive minutes to squad players and younger footballers without any drop in quality.
Across those two matches Argentina scored 11 goals, spread across several different players. Lautaro Martínez got on the scoresheet in both games, Julián Álvarez remains a key figure in attack, and Nico Paz and Gianluca Prestianni had the chance to make their mark. For Benin, a particularly uncomfortable factor will be Lionel Messi returning to the starting line-up: the captain is expected to play from the first minute, and his motivation to put in a strong performance in what will be his last match for Argentina should be at its peak.
Argentina have gone 17 consecutive matches without defeat in normal time, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of those, so Benin will find it extremely difficult not only to withstand pressure in their own half but also to create anything going forward. Argentina regularly find another gear late on: they scored after the 85th minute in three of their last four matches, which is particularly relevant for a prediction on a big win.
Match Results: Argentina
Benin are in for a tough night
Despite the vast difference in class, Benin are not a side that has come to Buenos Aires simply to make up the numbers. Gernot Rohr's men have lost just one of their last six international matches, winning three and drawing two. In their AFCON qualifying campaign they have started without a defeat, drawing with Burkina Faso before beating Mauritania.
Benin's main task is to withstand the early pressure and prevent Argentina from settling the match before half-time. Rohr has made clear in advance that his side have no intention of simply turning up for Messi's party and will look to resist as hard as possible. The statistics, however, point to a serious problem: Benin are considerably inferior to their opponents in terms of ball progression, possession and individual quality, which will make sustaining a compact defensive shape for long periods extremely difficult.
Benin are capable of creating moments even against stronger opposition and have scored exactly one goal in each of their last four away matches. Against Argentina, though, that trend may not continue: the hosts are considerably better at controlling space after turnovers, and their centre-backs face far less work in a standard positional scenario.
Match Results: Benin
Latest news
Argentina
❌ Leandro Paredes is suspended for the match, while Paulo Dybala and Nahuel Molina will not take part in the farewell match by Roma's decision. Rodrigo De Paul and Giovani Lo Celso are available, and Nicolás Otamendi has also been given the opportunity to play in the farewell match for the national team.
Benin
❌ Experienced striker Steve Mounié will miss the match through injury. His absence reduces the options up front and is a particularly painful blow given the need to spend most of the game without the ball. Rohr's main hope will rest on Ayegbeni Tossin, who is capable of exploiting the rare pockets of space that come his way.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Argentina predicted starting XI: E. Martínez - Giay, Romero, L. Martínez, Vega - Paz, Enzo Fernández, Mac Allister - Álvarez, Messi, Lautaro.
📋 Benin predicted starting XI: Dandjinou - Azongnitodé, Roche, Tijani, T. Ouorou - D'Almeida, Ya. Ouorou, Imourane, Olaitan, Aloko - Aiyegun.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
This is a friendly, and a particular kind of friendly in terms of atmosphere. There is little reason to expect excessively rough or aggressive play, especially given the absence of any competitive pressure. Benin will certainly have to defend for long periods and spend most of the match without the ball, but sustained pressure alone does not necessarily mean a high number of bookings.
With that in mind, the more interesting angle here is Benin Team Total Yellow Cards - Under 2.5. The Africans will have plenty of defensive work to do, but in a friendly there is no need to deliberately turn the game into a physical battle. If Argentina establish a comfortable lead early on, the intensity of the duels should drop further, which only adds to the case for this selection.
⚽ Goals Prediction
The goals market looks the most interesting here. Argentina have scored 11 goals in their last two matches, and both opponents were considerably closer to Benin's level than a world-class national side. Now Messi will be on the pitch, highly motivated for his final match, with Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez and a whole group of players capable of creating chances around him. Given Argentina's recent results, my preference is for Argentina Team Total - Over 4 goals at 1.55*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
The corners picture is less clear-cut than the goals one. Argentina will spend a large portion of the match around Benin's penalty area, which creates good conditions for plenty of crosses, blocked shots and clearances. Benin will sit deep from the first minute, so the hosts' pressure should gradually push the corner count up. However, an early rout could reduce the intensity of attacks in the second half, so going too high on the line isn't advisable. My preferred pick is Argentina Team Total Corners - Over 6.5. The odds are 1.67*.
😱 Risky Bet
Argentina Team Total - Over 3.5 Goals in the First Half - odds 5.00*. This is a very aggressive option, but there are certain grounds for it. Argentina scored 5 goals in the first half alone against Burkina-Faso. Benin are also significantly weaker than Argentina in terms of quality, and Lionel Messi's farewell match will give the hosts extra motivation. If Scaloni's side set a high tempo early and manage to open the scoring within the first 5-10 minutes, Benin may not withstand the pressure and could concede several times before half-time.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Over 3 - odds 1.13.* Even if Messi gets limited playing time, Scaloni still has enough players capable of pushing the team's total to four goals. The main risk lies in the nature of a friendly and the possibility of the tempo dropping after a quick rout, but the previous two meetings showed that a large lead does not cause Argentina to abandon their attacking intent entirely. For that reason, they are capable of continuing to press forward against Benin even after establishing a comfortable advantage.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Lionel Messi to Score in Both Halves - odds 2.11*. For the captain, this looks like the kind of evening where he should remain at the centre of things from the first minute to the last. Messi has ideal conditions here for a productive match. Benin will be forced to sit deep continuously, and Argentina will have plenty of time and space to attack through the box. Even if the hosts settle the contest early, Messi will remain the primary target for passes and shots. That is why a bet on him to score in each half looks very interesting for this particular match.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
If Argentina unexpectedly fail to open the scoring in the first 30-40 minutes, or go into the break with only a narrow lead, there's no need to automatically abandon the goals bet. In that scenario, Total Goals - Over 3 in-play is worth considering. Even at 0-0 after half an hour, Argentina would still have plenty of time to make their enormous class advantage count. Benin will be forced to defend throughout the match, and sustaining that kind of pressure for the full 90 minutes will be extremely difficult for them.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Sportingly speaking, this is a match with a very large gap in class. Benin are in decent form and capable of causing isolated problems, but against Argentina at the Monumental they will have to spend almost the entire match without the ball. The hosts have an added emotional motivation in the form of Messi's final appearance for the national team. So there is little reason to expect cautious football from Argentina, especially if an early goal forces Benin to abandon their original plan of sitting in a compact defensive shape. Final selection: Argentina - Handicap -3.5. Predicted score: 5-0.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Argentina - Benin
in last 21 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 12 home games (Int. Friendly Games).
in last 11 games (Int. Friendly Games).in 7 of last 8 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 29 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 12 home games (Int. Friendly Games).in 10 of last 11 away games (Int. Friendly Games).Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
