Albania vs San Marino Prediction 6 October 2026
🔊 Albania host San Marino in the fourth round of the Nations League. After opening wins over Belarus and San Marino, Rolando Maran's side lost to Finland in a high-scoring match. San Marino have lost all three of their matches and are yet to pick up a point. The two sides meet for the second time in a week, with Albania now at home but coming into the game off the back of a tough match in Helsinki.
🔁 We regularly update this prediction. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Head-to-head history: San Marino have never scored against Albania
📊 Albania have won every previous head-to-head meeting with San Marino. Across four matches, the aggregate score stands at 13-0 in Albania's favour. The last meeting ended in a 3-0 win for Albania.
Head-to-head statistics Albania - San Marino
Albania: Playing with ten men fails to break the team’s spirit
In the previous Nations League cycle, Albania competed in League B, Group B1. They finished fourth with seven points, recording two wins, one draw and three defeats. That bottom-place finish sent them down to League C. In the new cycle, Albania are in League C, Group C1, alongside Finland, Belarus and San Marino. Head coach Rolando Maran has been tasked by the federation with winning the group. The Italian took charge of the national team in May 2026 and signed a one-and-a-half-year contract.
Their start to the campaign was promising. Albania beat Belarus 2-0, then San Marino 3-0, picking up six points. In the third round they suffered their first defeat, losing 2-1 in Helsinki to Finland. Albania had taken the lead as early as the fourth minute, when Rey Manaj converted Kristjan Asllani's corner. However, on 22 minutes Etrit Berisha was shown a red card, leaving his side a man down. Finland equalised before the break, and in the second half Leo Väljä scored the winner from a free kick. Even with ten men, Albania continued to look for counter-attacking opportunities. Late on they pushed forward in search of an equaliser but were unable to take their chances. Ultimately, the early red card proved decisive, handing Finland a numerical advantage for the majority of the match. Albania now return to Tirana, where they will be able to play on the front foot again, though the busy schedule means rotation cannot be ruled out. The key objective for the hosts is to take three points and keep themselves in contention for first place in the group.
Match Results: Albania
San Marino are still searching for their first goal as they take on Albania.
In the previous Nations League cycle, San Marino competed in League D, Group D1. They finished first with seven points, winning two matches, drawing one and losing one. That result brought the side a historic promotion to League C - the first time San Marino had won two matches in a single Nations League campaign and the first time they had been promoted. In the new cycle, San Marino made their debut in League C, Group C1, where their opponents are Finland, Albania and Belarus. The team continues to be managed by Roberto Cevoli, who was appointed head coach in December 2023. In February 2026, the federation separately confirmed its support for him and his staff.
The start to life in the new division has been extremely difficult. San Marino lost to Finland (0-7), then fell to Albania (0-3) and Belarus (0-4). After three matchdays, they have no points and no goals scored, with a goal difference of 0-14. That said, the match against Belarus was not entirely one-sided before the break. San Marino kept a clean sheet in the first half and created several chances at the other end. After the interval, Belarus scored quickly and then extended their lead. The hosts ended up taking 15 shots to San Marino's 10, though the visitors had four shots on target. The main problem facing Cevoli's side right now is not just the gap in quality between themselves and their opponents. The team have so far been unable to convert their rare attacking moments into goals, and they lose their shape too easily after conceding the first goal. At the same time, their first-half display against Belarus showed again that they are capable of holding a side at bay for a reasonable period. Ahead of the match against Albania, the visitors' objective remains the same: stay compact for as long as possible and prevent the favourites from settling the contest early. It is also particularly important for San Marino to at least get a few of their attacks to a conclusion, given that across three matchdays they have managed just 17 shots and are yet to score.
Match Results: San Marino
Latest news
Albania
❌ Etrit Berisha (goalkeeper) - suspended following a red card in the match against Finland; Feta Fetai (midfielder) - has left the squad to join the under-21s; Samuele Sina (defender) - has left the squad to join the under-21s.
✅ Simon Simon (goalkeeper) - called up as cover for the suspended Berisha, already training with the squad; Luis Hasa (midfielder) - has overcome a fitness issue and returned to full training with the group.
San Marino
❌ Nicola Nanni - suspended.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Albania: Simoni - Hysaj, Gjimshiti, Ismajli, Mitaj - Ramadani, Asllani - Muçi, Mehmeti, Uzuni - Manaj
📋 Predicted starting XI for San Marino: Colombo - Benvenuti, Cevoli, Pasolini, Giocondo - Zannoni, Capicchioni, Golinucci - Lazzari - Giacopetti, Pancotti
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Under 4.5 has landed in Albania's last 34 matches in a row, and in San Marino's UEFA Nations League matches the same outcome has come in 14 of their last 15 games. Both runs point to a consistent tendency towards matches with fewer than five goals. Albania will be favourites and will likely look to control the game after their defeat to Finland. San Marino will have to spend long periods without the ball and defend compactly. Given the demanding match in Helsinki, it may matter to Albania to play more efficiently and avoid unnecessary exertion. If the hosts do not score early, the match could stay within four goals. Our prediction: Total Goals - Under 4.5 at odds of 1.79*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
In the last meeting between Albania and San Marino, the two sides combined for 11 corners. In the upcoming match, the hosts should spend most of their time in positional attacks and regularly test the opposition's defence. San Marino will almost certainly sit deep and focus on protecting their penalty area. In that scenario, Albania should be able to attack down the flanks frequently, work the ball into crossing positions and create the conditions for corners. The pick is Total Corners - Over 9.5 at odds of 1.61*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
In their last match, San Marino picked up five yellow cards against Belarus, while Albania earned four bookings in Helsinki. The gap in quality in the upcoming fixture could force the visitors to foul more frequently in defence. Albania will hold the initiative and attack regularly, meaning San Marino will have to repeatedly break up play. That scenario creates the conditions for several bookings during the match. The pick is Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at odds of 1.40*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Rey Manaj has already scored twice in the current Nations League campaign. The forward netted against Belarus in the first round and then found the net against San Marino in the away fixture. Now Albania face San Marino at home again, where the hosts should spend a lot of time on the attack. Manaj remains one of the main options to finish moves and already knows how to break down this opponent's defence. Bet: Rey Manaj to Score.
😱 Risky Bet
San Marino have lost all three of their matches in this Nations League campaign without scoring a single goal. That said, the team continue to look for opportunities going forward and are capable of exploiting the space that may open up behind Albania's defensive line in certain moments. The hosts will attack frequently and will likely spend the majority of the match in the opposition half. This creates the risk of counter-attacks, particularly if Albania open up after scoring. The bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes at odds of 3.51*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Under 6.5 has landed in each of Albania's last 26 consecutive home matches. That makes it particularly interesting for this fixture, given that San Marino have failed to score in all three of their Nations League matches this season. Albania will be clear favourites and will almost certainly spend the majority of the match on the front foot. However, hitting seven goals would require a great deal of energy that they simply may not have after the match against Finland. San Marino will look to defend as deep and compact as possible, so Total Goals - Under 6.5 looks as safe as it gets at odds of 1.17*.
👀 If the match doesn't go to script
If San Marino manage to keep it 0-0 at half-time, that won't necessarily mean Albania are having serious problems. The hosts are capable of maintaining pressure after the break, but San Marino typically try to stay compact in the early stages of a match. The bet is 1st Half Total Goals - Under 0.5 at odds of 7.17*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
Albania look the clear favourites and should control the game, but winning by five or more goals would require a very high-scoring match. The visitors will almost certainly focus on staying compact defensively and keeping the margin as small as possible for as long as they can. Albania will need to break down a packed defence, and after a tough match in Helsinki the hosts may play more pragmatically. Predicted score: 3-0. Editorial prediction: San Marino Handicap (+4).
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Betting Tips: Albania - San Marino
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