Melgar vs AD Tarma Prediction 6 September 2026
πIn this Peruvian Clausura fixture, Melgar take on Tarma. Both sides have been in poor form of late. That said, the hosts remain one of the better attacking teams in the league despite that. The visitors may well lack the resources to defend effectively, which could make for a fairly open, attacking game from both sides.
Head-to-Head
π The last meeting between these two sides took place on 20 March and ended in a 1-1 draw. It is worth noting that both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 head-to-head meetings.
Head-to-head statistics Melgar - AD Tarma
FBC Melgar Team Overview
Melgar are a solid mid-table side in the Peruvian league. Their current form, however, is not great: two defeats, two draws and just one win from their last five matches. In the previous round they lost to AtlΓ©tico Grau (0-1). That said, the team have real attacking potential. Melgar average 1.67 goals per game, and at home that figure rises to 2. They concede 1.17 per game. Given their current form, keeping a clean sheet looks unlikely - they may well struggle to deal with all of Tarma's counter-attacks and set pieces.
Match Results: FBC Melgar
AD Tarma Team Overview
The visitors are in a sorry state. Tarma have spent the entire season at the bottom of the table - both in the Clausura and in the overall standings. They have lost three of their last five matches and have not won in quite some time. Last round's defeat to Sport Huancayo (1-3) exposed multiple defensive problems, and the statistics back that up: they are conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game, with the situation even worse away from home (1.82). Tarma will look to make the most of their attacking potential - they are averaging 1.13 goals per game - and the opposition may leave space that could be exploited on the counter-attack.
Match Results: AD Tarma
Total Goals Prediction
Melgar have scored more than 1.5 goals at home in 6 of their last 7 matches, which supports the trend. The team average 2 goals per home game this season, and their scoring rate across their last 10 home matches is also high at 1.6 goals. Given these figures, Melgar Team Total - Over 1.5 at 1.49* looks justified.
Corners Prediction
Melgar consistently earn more than 4.5 corners at home: that bet has come in in 6 of their last 7 home matches, which is reflected in the trend. It is a solid pattern with no strong contradictions over this run, so the Melgar Team Total Corners - Over 4.5 at 1.67* looks reliable.
Risky Bet
Melgar are a productive side at home, averaging 2 goals per match, while their opponents concede an average of 1.82 goals away from home. In Melgar's last 20 home matches, Total Goals - Over 1.5 came in 19 times. However, there is less direct evidence for Total Goals - Over 3.5 at 2.66*, which makes this bet a risky one, though not without some basis.
Reliable Bet
Tarma have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine consecutive matches, which supports the trend. The team also average just 1.13 goals per game this season, and even less away from home - 0.91. These figures point towards Tarma Team Total - Under 1.5 Goals at 1.20*.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the three most likely outcomes in this match are 1:0 (10.76%), 2:0 (10.54%) and 2:1 (10.24%). All three scorelines have similar probabilities, pointing to Melgar's advantage alongside fairly low scoring from the away side. Of the three, 1:0 has a marginally higher probability.
β Editorial Prediction
Both sides have been showing defensive problems, at least recently. Yes, Melgar are considered favourites: the team have had some very strong spells during the season, and home advantage counts for something. However, Tarma are capable of playing with a fair amount of boldness. They understand their position. There is no longer any reason to sit back and defend a goalless draw. Attempts to play on the break could well pay off. We are therefore expecting a fairly open and ultimately high-scoring game. Our pick is Total Goals - Over 2.5.
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Betting Tips: FBC Melgar - AD Tarma
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in 19 of last 20 FBC Melgar home games (Primera Division).in 8 of last 9 FBC Melgar home games.in 10 of last 11 AD Tarma games (Primera Division).in 8 of last 9 AD Tarma games.in last 7 AD Tarma away games (Primera Division).in 18 of last 19 home games (Primera Division).in 8 of last 9 home games.in 10 of last 11 games.in last 9 games (Primera Division).in last 7 away games (Primera Division).in 7 of last 8 home games (Primera Division).in 7 of last 8 away games (Primera Division).Comparison of Teams Stats
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