Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction 4 February 2025

🔊 Which team is destined to be eliminated from the Coppa Italia at the quarter-final stage? As of today, Atalanta and Bologna are approximately on the same level. While Gian Piero Gasperini's team isn't displaying the same vibrant play as they did in the fall, the "red-blues" have significantly improved compared to the start of the season. In this situation, we will try to analyze all details to provide you with an accurate prediction for the match that will take place at the "Gewiss Stadium."

📊 Head-to-Head

In head-to-head encounters, Atalanta holds a slight advantage in results. Over a span of 37 matches, the "queen of the provincials" has been stronger than their opponent 18 times, while Bologna has recorded 10 victories. Regarding the only meeting within the current season, which took place at the end of September, the teams could not determine a winner (1-1).

🔵 Atalanta

Almost any team experiences a period of crisis at some point. And Atalanta is no exception. The team, which was demolishing everyone in its path a few months ago, has drastically reduced the number of victories. Over the last 9 matches, the "queen of the provincials" succeeded only twice. Due to these disappointing results, the Bergamo team finished the Champions League group stage in ninth place and dropped to third place in the Serie A standings. Last weekend, Atalanta was unable to break Torino's defense despite overwhelming dominance. With statistics of 22-5 in shots (10-3 on target), 3.13-0.58 in xG metrics, 4-1 in created goal chances, and 1-0 in earned penalties, the match ended in a draw (1-1). Regarding the upcoming encounter, the participation of 4 players is in question, including Ademola Lookman (knee injury) and main goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi (was not on the roster for the match against Torino for unknown reasons).

🔴 Bologna

Bologna continues to extend its unbeaten streak, which has already reached 7 matches. Yes, the team draws quite often, but they also secure a fair number of victories. Last weekend, the "red-blues" managed to beat Como without conceding (2-0), who is a major trigger for all Italian football giants. Yes, a direct red card to Alieu Fadera in the 38th minute helped, but even with equal squads, Vincenzo Italiano's team looked much better than their opponent. The team is already one step away from entering the top 6 despite a disastrous start to the season. As for the upcoming match, the coaching staff will be missing only 2 players, but they are significant losses - Riccardo Orsolini (7+3) and Lewis Ferguson (main midfielder) will not play.

⚽️ Prediction on Goals

Should we expect many goals in the upcoming encounter? The answer is yes. Despite Atalanta experiencing tough times, the team still impresses with its attacking prowess. Gian Piero Gasperini's squad scored 2 goals against Napoli (2-3), the best defensive club in Italy (15), twice troubled Barcelona's goalkeeper away (2-2), and Sturm, Austria's reigning champion, was forced to retrieve the ball from their own net 5 times (5-0). However, the team's defense remains a weak link - only in 1 of their last 6 matches did they manage to leave the field without conceding a goal. Considering Bologna is in good form, our betting option will be both teams to score (yes).

🚩 Prediction on Corners

Atalanta and Bologna are not big fans of set pieces. Despite Gian Piero Gasperini's team's ultra-attacking football, they approach the corner flag an average of 5.0 times per game. In this statistical parameter, the "queen of the provincials" is only eighth in Serie A. Bologna's numbers are even lower - 4.5 corners and twelfth place. In this situation, the most reasonable decision would be to settle on total corners under 10.

📝 Editor's Prediction

Bookmakers have no doubt that Atalanta will win. However, we find it hard to agree with this opinion. The "queen of the provincials'" game recently raises serious concerns. Only 2 positive results in their last 9 matches, including an unconvincing victory over Como (2-1), indicate Atalanta's crisis, which will be extremely difficult to overcome. Bologna, on the other hand, is on the rise. The team shows stable results and has hardly lost since late November (only 1 defeat during this period). Considering their easy part of the bracket, the "red-blues" can quite realistically aim for victory in the Coppa Italia. If they reach the semi-finals, Vincenzo Italiano's team will meet either an unstable Juventus or a depleted Empoli. For such a club, winning the Coppa Italia would be akin to winning the Champions League. We dare to suggest that Bologna will not lose in regular time. We believe that after 90 minutes of play, the scoreboard will show a 2-2 draw, and a spot in the next round will be decided in a penalty shootout. Our key bet is Both teams to score (yes).