Morocco vs Mali Prediction 4 October 2026
🔊 This match wasn't on the calendar until 30 September. Morocco had been waiting for Ghana, and Mali were due to travel to Tunisia, but both friendlies fell through. The two freed-up sides quickly found each other. In Tangier, two teams who won both of their opening qualifying matches for the Africa Cup of Nations will meet.
Head-to-Head
📊 It was Mali who ended Morocco's record winning run back in December 2025. Going into that Africa Cup match in Rabat, Morocco had won 19 consecutive games, but Mali came away with a draw (1-1). Both goals came from the penalty spot: Brahim Díaz opened the scoring before half-time, with Lassine Sinayoko equalising on 64 minutes. Morocco have not lost to Mali in a while, though - in the last five head-to-head meetings, they have three wins and two draws.
Head-to-head statistics Morocco - Mali
Morocco: Wahbi integrates newcomers without any setbacks
Morocco are entering a new cycle under Mohamed Wahbi. He won the Under-20 World Cup last year before taking over from Walid Regragui as head coach of the senior side in March. At the World Cup, Morocco reached the quarter-finals, where they lost to France. Wahbi's side began their Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign with two wins, both by a score of 2-0, against Gabon and Lesotho.
Wahbi is using this window to run the rule over his squad. Across the two qualifying matches he has fielded 24 players. Yassir Zabiri, who scored twice in the Under-20 World Cup final against Argentina, started against Gabon. The rotation has not caused any problems so far: in the first half against Lesotho, Morocco had 83% possession and their opponents managed just one shot.
Match Results: Morocco
Mali: A New Head Coach and a 19-Year-Old Striker
Mali were taken over in the summer by Franco-Portuguese coach Antoni da Silva, and he has made an ideal start: in Africa Cup of Nations qualifying, the Malians have beaten Cabo Verde and Liberia, and they sit joint top of Group K alongside Rwanda. It is worth noting that Cabo Verde arrived in Bamako having reached the Round of 16 at the World Cup.
Da Silva's standout discovery has been Ange Martial Tia. The Reims winger received his first call-up to the national side and scored in both matches - opening the scoring against Cabo Verde as early as the fifth minute, then winning the game in Liberia on 79 minutes. Mali are also managing without captain Yves Bissouma: the midfielder is currently without a club and was not included in the squad.
Match Results: Mali
Latest news
Morocco
❓ Noussair Mazraoui has left the squad and will miss the match in Tangier. The defender picked up an injury in the second half of the game against Lesotho, though the federation has not specified the nature of the problem. Achraf Hakimi, meanwhile, is back. The captain missed the Gabon match through suspension and came on as a substitute in the 69th minute against Lesotho. Before the squad gathered, he had been receiving treatment for a thigh injury sustained on 13 September in the match against Brest. Ismaël Saibari also missed the Gabon match through suspension and started against Lesotho.
Mali
❓ The Malians flew into Tangier on 1 October directly from Monrovia, a journey of more than three hours. This is their third match in ten days, and the team looked tired in Liberia. Mahamadou Doumbia, Sikou Niakaté and Gaussou Diakité all missed the September squad through injury, and Mohamed Camara is also absent.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Morocco predicted starting XI: Bono - Hakimi, Aguerd, Diop, Salah-Eddine - Bouaddi, El Aynaoui, Ounahi - Brahim Diaz, Zabiri, Ezzalzouli.
📋 Mali predicted starting XI: Djigui Diarra - Amari Traore, Ousmane Camara, Gassama, Guindo - Dieng, Sangare - Nene Dorgeles, Kamory Doumbia, Tia - Sinayoko.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
At home, Morocco have kept a clean sheet in 12 of their last 13 friendly matches. Mali's attack has gone quiet in friendlies: they have failed to score in four consecutive games of this type. Jordan, Russia and Iran have all kept clean sheets against Mali in such matches. Mali do score in competitive fixtures, but against Morocco's defence in Tangier, we are not expecting a goal from the visitors. The bet is Mali to Score: No.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Across their last 20 matches, Morocco have taken 121 corners while their opponents have taken 70. Mali's picture is the reverse: in their last 10 matches, they have taken 34 corners against 49 for their opponents. Facing a defence that readily concedes corners, we expect Morocco to win at least five. The bet is Morocco Team Total Corners - Over 4.5.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The December Africa Cup of Nations meeting between these sides was scrappy and nervy. Mali pick up bookings regularly: they have been shown 21 yellow cards in their last 10 matches. Morocco's balance runs the other way: over the same span, their opponents have received 19 yellows while Morocco themselves have received 12. We expect at least two bookings for the visitors. The bet is Mali Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Morocco have won five consecutive home friendlies. More broadly, they have been nearly flawless in friendlies, losing just one of their last 23. In Tangier, the hosts are clear favourites. Mali arrive after two AFCON qualifying matches and a flight from Monrovia. In Liberia they looked tired and only snatched the three points in the 79th minute. We expect Morocco's home run to continue. The bet is a Morocco win. Predicted score: 1-0.
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Betting Tips: Morocco - Mali
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