Colombia vs Paraguay Prediction 3 October 2026
🔊 Colombia and Paraguay meet in New Jersey in a friendly that forms part of both sides' post-World Cup preparations. Colombia began their October series of matches with a draw against Mexico, while Paraguay beat Bolivia convincingly. Both teams tend to maintain a fairly organised defensive structure, so I wouldn't expect this game to be full of open, end-to-end attacking play.
Head-to-Head
📊 Colombia have gone six head-to-head matches without losing to Paraguay, winning three and drawing three. In March 2025, Paraguay managed to take a point in Colombia, coming back from two goals down to draw 2-2 in South American qualifying.
Head-to-head statistics Colombia - Paraguay
Colombia maintain control
Colombia come into this match on an eight-game unbeaten run. At the World Cup, Néstor Lorenzo's side drew with Portugal, beat Uzbekistan, DR Congo and Ghana, and then went out on penalties against Switzerland. In September they drew 1-1 with Mexico. Across their last five matches, Colombia have conceded just one goal, which gives a clear indication of their current emphasis on controlling space and being solid without the ball.
Since the World Cup, Colombia's squad has been gradually refreshed. Néstor Lorenzo has called up several young players, including Camilo Durán, Kevin Viveros, Óscar Perea and Mattías Orozco. However, Richard Ríos, Jhon Arias, Jhon Lucumí and Davinson Sánchez remain available, so the team should retain their familiar structure. In the September match against Mexico, Colombia set up in a 4-3-3, with Arias, Luis Suárez and Carlos Andrés Gómez starting in attack.
Match Results: Colombia
Paraguay are banking on their defensive solidity
Paraguay come into the match with very similar numbers. At the World Cup, Gustavo Alfaro's side conceded five goals in five games and reached the Round of 16, where they lost 0-1 to France. In September they beat Bolivia 2-0. In Paraguay's last five matches, the total goals have not exceeded 2.5.
The main weapon of Alfaro's side is compactness and quick transitions from defence to attack. In the match against Bolivia, both goals were scored by Miguel Almirón, who operated fairly wide and regularly got involved in finishing attacks. In the expected 4-4-2 formation, Robert Morales could play alongside Julio Enciso, while the central midfield partnership is expected to be Andrés Cubas and Diego Gómez. This setup allows Paraguay to maintain compactness in midfield while also looking for space on the break.
Match Results: Paraguay
Latest news
Colombia
❌ The squad situation ahead of the match doesn't look critical, though there are a few absentees. Luis Díaz was not included in the squad for the October matches - according to Lorenzo, the two sides agreed to give him a few days' rest. In addition, the latest pre-match information points to Juan Quintero being out through injury; local sources also report concerns over Juan Cabal and a suspension for Kevin Viveros.
Paraguay
❌ Paraguay have several absentees of their own. Damián Bobadilla misses the match through injury. Brian Ojeda is also out. Pre-match sources also reported the absence of Enzo González. That said, Alfaro has retained his key players in the squad, including Almirón, Enciso, Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The friendly nature of the match reduces the likelihood of particularly rough play, but Colombia vs Paraguay fixtures have traditionally involved a high number of physical duels. In the most recent data available ahead of the match, Colombia were averaging around two yellow cards and Paraguay around three. The two sides know each other well from World Cup qualifying and the Copa América, so I'm not expecting a completely foul-free game. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
There are far more arguments here in favour of a cautious outcome. Colombia have conceded just one goal in their last five matches, and Paraguay have kept their opponents to no more than one goal in four of their last five. The friendly status may lead to rotation, but that does not necessarily mean open football: both sides are used to playing compactly and not forcing the game. I am therefore expecting one or two goals at most. Prediction: Total Goals - Under 2.5. Odds - 1.75*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
Colombia have averaged around 5.6 corners per match in 2026, while Paraguay have averaged around 6.25 in friendly matches. The nominal home side will likely enjoy more possession and use the flanks, while Paraguay will get their opportunities on the break. A fairly even distribution of corners seems likely here, with at least nine set pieces from the corner flag. Prediction: Total Corners - Over 7.5.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
This is a case where the friendly status doesn't necessarily mean a high-scoring game. Colombia and Paraguay are well organised without the ball, and their recent results show how difficult it is for opponents to create chances consistently. Head-to-head meetings between the two have also tended to be tight affairs, where a single goal can shape the rest of the match.
I expect Colombia to have more of the ball, but Paraguay will look to avoid leaving space between the lines. So rather than betting on the result, I'd focus on goals. My prediction is Total Goals - Under 2.5. Predicted score: 1-0 to Colombia.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Colombia - Paraguay
in 25 of last 27 games (Int. Friendly Games).in 18 of last 19 games (Int. Friendly Games).in 8 of last 9 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 5 games (Int. Friendly Games).Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
