Argentina vs Burkina Faso Prediction 4 October 2026
🔊 After the World Cup, Argentina continue to shape their squad for the next phase of their international cycle. In October's series of friendly matches, the runners-up had the chance to try out several new combinations and give playing time to players who are gradually working their way towards the first team. Their next opponents are Burkina Faso - a side with a very different style of play and considerably fewer resources. For the African side, this match represents a serious test following the official fixtures they have already played in September. Burkina Faso are accustomed to sitting compact and relying on physicality, while Argentina traditionally look to control the ball and dictate the tempo. The key question here is therefore not just the gap in quality, but how long the visitors can hold their shape under sustained pressure.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before the match to make sure you don't miss any important changes.
They have never met before
📊 Argentina and Burkina Faso have never played each other before, so there is no historical record to draw on here. The focus should instead be on current form and the difference in quality between the two sides.
Argentina immediately stepped up their attacking play
The match against Bolivia showed that Argentina are capable of creating serious pressure even without Messi. The hosts scored twice in the first half and continued to control the game after the break, eventually winning 4-0. The statistical dominance was overwhelming: 69% possession, 18 shots to three and 12 corners to one.
Nico Paz was particularly impressive, scoring one goal and providing an assist while being heavily involved in chance creation. More broadly, Scaloni was able to give game time to several younger players, including Román Vega, Ezequiel Fernández, Valentín Gómez, Santiago Simón and Leonel Flores. That increases competition for places and gives the manager additional rotation options.
Against Burkina Faso, Argentina will again enjoy a clear advantage in possession. The visitors will most likely try to keep things as compact as possible in front of their penalty area, but sustained positional pressure should gradually stretch that structure. Switches of play to the flanks and runs from midfield could prove particularly dangerous.
Match Results: Argentina
The visitors are banking on their discipline
Burkina Faso have been considerably more cautious than Argentina in their recent official matches. In September, they drew 1-1 with Benin before beating CAR 1-0 away. Across those two qualifying games, they scored just two goals but conceded only once.
The core idea under Amir Abdou is compactness and a solid defensive structure without the ball. The squad includes experienced defenders Edmond Tapsoba and Nasser Djiga, while Dango Ouattara and Lassina Traoré are the main attacking threats. In 2026 to date, Ouattara has seven goals and five assists across club and country, while Traoré has eight goals and four assists.
Against Argentina, though, that may not be enough. In their previous friendly, against Russia, Burkina Faso lost 3-0, and against a side capable of holding the ball for even longer and constantly switching the direction of attacks, the defensive load will be considerably greater. The visitors need to stay in the game without conceding for as long as possible - otherwise their compact defensive model could break down quickly.
Match Results: Burkina Faso
Latest news
Argentina
❓ The main question mark is over Lautaro Martínez, who was substituted in the match against Bolivia due to a suspected injury. His availability for the upcoming fixture remains in doubt. Messi is in the squad for the October series, but his appearance against Burkina Faso looks unlikely given the preparation for his farewell match against Benin on 6 October. Scaloni still has Julián Álvarez, Nico Paz, José López and other attacking players at his disposal.
Burkina Faso
📋 Amir Abdou is counting on Edmond Tapsoba, Issa Kaboré, Nasser Djiga and Lassina Traoré. There are, however, squad absences: Adamo Nagalo and Ismaël Ouédraogo are both out, while Dango Ouattara's participation was in doubt ahead of the match. As a result, Burkina Faso's squad depth is noticeably inferior to Argentina's.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Argentina received no bookings in their match against Bolivia, and that game ended with just one yellow card overall. Burkina Faso play in a more physical manner and have been picking up bookings regularly in recent matches, but the friendly nature of this fixture reduces the likelihood of a high number of hard challenges. So I wouldn't back a high line here. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Under 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Argentina scored four goals against Bolivia, and before that at the World Cup they also created chances regularly in attack, with the exception of the final. Burkina Faso have been considerably more cautious in their recent official matches: a 1-1 draw with Benin and a 1-0 win over CAR suggest the team rarely pushes things forward.
That said, the gap in quality is too large to dismiss the possibility of a heavy home win entirely. If Argentina score first, Burkina Faso will have to open up somewhat, which will create additional space for the midfielders. Prediction: Argentina Team Total - Over 2 goals. Odds - 1.49*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
In their match against Bolivia, Argentina won 12 corners, spending virtually the entire game in the opposition half. The hosts made frequent use of the flanks, regularly working the ball into positions for crosses and shots, and continued to press forward after the break even with a commanding lead.
The game against Burkina Faso could follow a similar pattern: the African side will almost certainly sit back and cede possession, while Argentina methodically look to find space around the penalty area. With extended periods of the ball, the hosts should again rack up plenty of set pieces from the corner flag. Prediction: Argentina Team Total Corners - Over 6.5.
😱 Risky Bet
You could go further here and back an Argentina win with a handicap of -3.5. This fits the overall logic of the match: Argentina are capable of scoring several times before half-time, as they did against Bolivia, and then turning it into a rout in the second half. That said, the bet remains genuinely risky given the friendly status of the match and the possibility of rotation. The odds are 4.25*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
The more cautious option is an Argentina win without any specific margin attached. The odds on a straight home win are 1.19*. Burkina Faso have scored just two goals in their last two matches, while Argentina recently shut Bolivia out completely, allowing them only three shots.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Following the match against Bolivia, Nico Paz deserves a special mention. The midfielder scored one goal and provided one assist, and was also heavily involved in creating chances. During that game he had three shots and made three key passes.
Given Argentina's expected territorial dominance, Paz should again receive the ball frequently between the lines and get involved in the attacking play. His involvement in goals is therefore worth considering as an individual bet. Prediction: Nico Paz to score or assist.
👀 If the match doesn't go to script
If Burkina Faso manage to get through the first 30-40 minutes without conceding, I wouldn't be too quick to write off the chances of an Argentina rout. In that scenario, Argentina will continue to dominate possession, but the African side will gain extra confidence and may be able to close down the central areas even more tightly.
In-play, the more interesting approach would then be to wait for Burkina Faso to start tiring or to be forced open after conceding the first goal. If by that point Argentina have a clear advantage in shots and corners, it's worth considering Argentina Team Total - Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half. This is particularly relevant given that Scaloni has a large squad at his disposal and will be able to bring on equally strong attacking players after the break.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Argentina have already shown since the World Cup that Messi's absence does not prevent them from controlling matches and creating a large number of chances. The win over Bolivia was a good illustration of how much pressure the team can generate through possession and ball movement.
Burkina Faso come into this match off two qualifying games in which they scored just two goals. Their organised defence can hold Argentina at bay for a period, but maintaining compactness against sustained positional pressure over the full match will be difficult. An additional factor is the difference in squad depth: Scaloni can make significant changes to the shape of the game as it progresses without any noticeable drop in quality.
The main selection here is therefore not simply an Argentina win, but a winning margin of at least two goals. The final bet: Argentina - Handicap -1.5. Predicted score: 4-0.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Argentina - Burkina Faso
in last 19 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 11 home games (Int. Friendly Games)..svg)
in 10 of last 11 home games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 9 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 27 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 11 home games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 24 games (Int. Friendly Games).in last 11 home games (Int. Friendly Games).in 13 of last 14 away games (Int. Friendly Games).Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
