Everton vs Man City Prediction 4 May 2026
π On Monday, teams with different league ambitions will take the field at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton, fighting for a spot in European competitions under the guidance of David Moyes, will host Manchester City, who are in pursuit of Londonβs Arsenal in the Premier League title race. For the Toffees, this match is a chance to recover in their quest for a top-7 finish, after two last-minute defeats severely impacted their standings. The visitors, on the other hand, are in excellent form, boasting an 11-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League, and are fully prepared to capitalize on any slip-up by the Gunners.
Head-to-Head
π The head-to-head statistics paint a grim picture for the hosts. In their last 17 Premier League encounters, the Toffees have failed to secure a single victory, marking their worst run against the Citizens in the competition's history. Additionally, Everton have lost their last eight home Premier League matches against City, their longest streak of home defeats to a single opponent. The most recent meeting between the teams, which took place in October 2025, ended with a convincing 2-0 victory for Guardiola's side, courtesy of an Erling Haaland brace.
Head-to-head statistics Everton - Man City
Everton Team Overview
The Toffees are gearing up for a clash against a title contender, facing significant squad issues but maintaining a fighting spirit. After 34 rounds, David Moyes' side sits 11th in the league standings with 47 points and aims to halt a two-game losing streak. The hosts have yet to lose three consecutive Premier League matches this season, showcasing their resilience and offering hope for a positive outcome in the upcoming fixture.
It's fair to say that Everton encountered a streak of bad luck at the end of April. They put in solid performances against Liverpool and West Ham, outperforming their opponents in expected goals in both instances, yet conceded late goals and lost 2-1 each time. The key now is to stay composed. The Toffees are just three points shy of the European competition spots and, with a relatively manageable schedule in the final three rounds, they retain a reasonable chance of breaking into that zone.
Match Results: Everton
Manchester City Team Overview
The "Citizens" are in outstanding form, having won their last six matches across all competitions, and they are determined to continue their quest for a domestic treble. Pep Guardiola's side remain unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League fixtures, keeping them on a championship trajectory. The visitors' attacking prowess is undeniable, averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last five outings.
However, their finishing let them down in the previous round. The "Citizens" generated an xG of 3.17 against Burnley (1-0), but ultimately, Haaland's goal in the 5th minute was the only one that counted. They also faced challenges in the FA Cup semi-final against Southampton (2-1), where they had to mount a late rescue mission, successfully completed thanks to late strikes from Jeremy Doku and Nico Gonzalez. In the tournament final, they will face Chelsea.
Match Results: Manchester City
Latest news
Everton
β The major positive update is the return of forward Beto, who missed the match against West Ham due to a concussion. David Moyes has confirmed that the African player will be ready.
β A significant blow for the hosts is the absence of key central defender Jarrad Branthwaite, who is out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury sustained during the Merseyside derby.
π« Jack Grealish, on loan from Manchester City, will also be unavailable for the team. The Englishman is sidelined with an injury and is ineligible to play against his parent club.
Manchester City
β Manchester City's main issues lie in their defense. Two key center-backs, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, are definitely out. However, this is a familiar situation for Guardiola.
β Additionally, there's significant doubt over the participation of their main defensive midfielder, Rodri. The Spaniard is recovering from a groin injury.
π It's expected that Pep will make several changes to the lineup compared to the FA Cup semifinal, fielding his strongest team, including Erling Haaland.
π¨ Prediction on Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by Michael Oliver, who is statistically one of the least strict referees in the league. This Premier League season, he has shown 79 yellow cards across 26 matches, averaging 3.1 on the strictness scale-almost half of what the leaders show. However, this is unlikely to prevent the Toffees from picking up their customary pair of yellows-Everton have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in their last five head-to-head encounters with the Citizens in the Premier League. With David Moyes' men likely to spend much time defending, this bet looks promising with odds around 1.75*.
β½ Goal Prediction
While Everton's games at "Hill Dickinson" aren't consistently thrilling, three of their last five have gone over the total. Considering the vulnerability of the hosts' defense, exacerbated by Branthwaite's significant absence, and Manchester City's attacking prowess, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.65* seems logical. The last time these teams combined for more than two goals in a game was in 2023, and it's about time they break this low-scoring trend.
π© Corner Prediction
Manchester City are a team known for their attacking style, which often results in a high number of corners-averaging 5.53 per away match. Everton, especially at home, also aren't shy about pushing forward, leading to around five corner kicks per game. Based on these stats, betting on over 10.5 corners at enticing odds of 2.21* is worth considering. This wager has been profitable in City's last five away matches.
π Player Stats Bet
With Everton's depleted and unstable defense, Erling Haaland should come to the fore. The Norwegian didn't start in the FA Cup semi-final, so he'll be fresh. And he's no stranger to troubling Jordan Pickford-he's scored six goals in five matches against the Toffees. He's truly an Everton specialist. The odds for Erling Haaland to score stand at 1.63*.
π± Risky Bet
Given David Moyes' knack for rallying his team against top clubs, and Manchester City's occasional slip-ups against lower-table teams this season, one might speculate that the Toffees could put up a fight. The recent losses to Liverpool and West Ham were tough to swallow, and the team will be highly motivated. A draw in this match with odds around 5.00* is a risk that could surprisingly pay off.
π― Reliable Bet
The Toffees rarely take points from the Citizens but equally rarely get thrashed by them. Everton have won with a (+2.5) handicap in five consecutive head-to-head matches against Man City and in their last 22 matches across all competitions! Ignoring such long-running trends would be unwise, so we choose this as our reliable bet. The odds are 1.23*.
π If the Match Doesnβt Go as Planned
An unlikely yet desirable scenario for Toffees fans-a tactical triumph by Moyes. Everton manage to withstand City's initial onslaught and impose a scrappy midfield battle on the visitors. The hosts launch several dangerous counterattacks and score first. The Citizens can't break through the opponent's low block, and the match ends with a sensational 1-0 victory for Everton. Believe in such an outcome? If so, you might consider live betting on Everton not to lose or on under 1.5 goals for Man City.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editor's Prediction
Everton will undoubtedly be motivated to challenge the title contenders on their home turf. However, the head-to-head stats and current form heavily favor Manchester City. Considering the defensive issues plaguing the Toffees and the attacking prowess of the visitors, a victory for the Citizens seems the most likely outcome. The match scenario appears straightforward - total dominance in possession by the visitors and a barrage of chances against Jordan Pickford's goal. If Pep's squad avoids sheer bad luck and capitalizes on their opportunities, they should comfortably secure three points. We're backing a Manchester City win with a predicted scoreline of 3-1.
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Betting Tips: Everton - Manchester City
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