Oliveira vs Gamrot Prediction
💪 On the night of October 12, Rio de Janeiro will host UFC Fight Night 261. The main event features a clash between top lightweight contenders-Charles Oliveira (ranked fourth in the division) and Mateusz Gamrot (ranked eighth). Originally, the Brazilian was set to face Rafael Fiziev, but "Ataman" withdrew due to injury. Gamrot stepped in as a replacement. Can the Polish fighter pose a challenge to Oliveira on short notice? Find out in the prediction below.
H2H Stats Fights and Previous Results
Charles Oliveira Player Overview
Charles Oliveira (35-11), the 35-year-old Brazilian veteran and living UFC legend, holds records for the most finishes (20) and submission victories (16). The pinnacle of his career came in 2021 when he claimed the lightweight championship by knocking out Michael Chandler. After successfully defending the title against Dustin Poirier, Oliveira was stripped of the belt due to weight issues before his fight with Justin Gaethje (though he still emerged victorious, the title remained vacant). In October 2022, he attempted to reclaim the championship but lost to Islam Makhachev via submission, ending his impressive 11-fight winning streak.
Subsequently, Oliveira secured a knockout victory over Beneil Dariush, suffered a split decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan, and then defeated Michael Chandler by unanimous decision in their rematch. In his latest bout this June, Oliveira contended for the lightweight title against Ilia Topuria but was knocked out in the first round.
Match Results: Charles Oliveira
Mateusz Gamrot Player Overview
Mateusz Gamrot (25-3), the 34-year-old Polish fighter, boasts an impressive wrestling background and has claimed KSW titles in both featherweight and lightweight divisions. His UFC journey kicked off in October 2020 with a loss to Guram Kutateladze. However, Gamrot quickly bounced back with four consecutive victories before his ascent was halted by Beneil Dariush. Gamrot regained momentum, but unexpectedly fell to Dan Hooker in August 2024. In May 2025, Mateusz returned to winning ways with a unanimous decision victory over Ľudovít Klein.
Match Results: Mateusz Gamrot
Latest news
Charles Oliveira
Oliveira on the upcoming bout:
"I don't think the fight will go beyond the first round. The difference is that Gamrot is purely a jiu-jitsu practitioner, while I'm a versatile fighter. I'm not planning to change my style; I'll keep pushing forward and hunting him down the entire time. If the opportunity arises, I'll finish him. It's not like he'll fearlessly dive into the ground game with me. In which fight hasn't he grappled? That's all he does. I'm ready. As I've said before, I'm an MMA fighter and prepared to battle both standing and on the ground."
Mateusz Gamrot
Gamrot on the upcoming fight:
"Oliveira is undoubtedly one of the greatest fighters in the lightweight division, but I'm fully prepared for this bout. I'm not afraid to grapple with him on the ground or trade strikes standing up. There's no pressure on me. God has given me the opportunity to prove myself. I'm heading to Rio and I aim to take his spot in the rankings."
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Just three and a half months ago, Oliveira suffered his first career knockout loss. Returning after such a short break, especially following arguably the most painful defeat of his career, is a significant risk. We believe this gamble is unlikely to pay off. Yes, while Gamrot hasn't been specifically preparing for the event in Rio, we know he's been in camp and maintaining his fitness. Considering Mateusz's skill level, as he ranks among the elite in the lightweight division, he has a strong chance of handing Charles a second consecutive defeat.