Finland vs Sweden Prediction
🔊 The main Scandinavian hockey derby gains intrigue with Finland's slip-up in their opening game. After the clash between Finland and Sweden, the situation in Group B could become even more complicated. Will Sweden hand their fierce rivals a second consecutive defeat? We break down the Olympic hockey tournament game and offer a prediction for the match on February 13.
Head-to-Head
📊 Over the past five years, the national teams of Finland and Sweden have faced off 35 times: 25 in tournaments and 10 in friendlies. Over this period, Sweden holds the advantage with 20 victories compared to Finland's 15. Notably, the Swedish team has triumphed in their last four encounters with Finland, conceding no more than two goals in each match.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Finland Team Overview
The Finns delivered a shock in the opening game of the Olympic tournament, losing to Slovakia 4-1 despite firing 40 shots on goal. The Finns applied pressure and kept the Slovak goalie busy, but their finishing let them down-even nearly three minutes of play with an empty net failed to yield any results.
This marks the first time since 2002 that Finland have started the Olympics with a defeat. Back in Salt Lake City, the Finns finished in a record-low sixth place for the 21st century. Regardless, all teams will advance from the group stage to the playoffs, but Finland's success could seriously complicate matters for both Sweden and Slovakia. Depending on how things unfold, goal difference might need to be calculated by the end of the week to determine a quarterfinalist.
Match Results: Finland
Sweden Team Overview
The Swedes also surprised many-despite taking 60 shots on goal against the Italians, they managed to score just five times (5-2). The hosts certainly found their rhythm, but they definitely need to work on their finishing, especially since Finland will have more experienced goalkeepers than Damián Clara and Davide Fadani.
Considering their games in 2025, the Swedes have now won eight consecutive matches. Following their victory over Denmark (6-2) in the bronze medal game of the 2025 World Championship, the Scandinavians bested the Czech Republic (3-1 and 5-0), Finland (4-2 and 4-2), and Switzerland (8-3 and 3-2 SO) in the Euro Hockey Tour. This marks the third such streak for Sweden in nearly two years.
Match Results: Sweden
⚡️ The Leaders
In Finland, the national team was expected to deliver a more dynamic performance from their leaders-Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Miro Heiskanen. However, it was Eeli Tolvanen who emerged as the standout forward with five shots and the only goal for the Finns. Alongside defenseman Joel Armia, they finished the game with a positive plus-minus rating.
Rasmus Dahlin, who has been in great form in the NHL, continued his momentum at the Olympics. The Swedish defenseman recorded a hat-trick of assists against Italy. Mika Zibanejad (1+1) and Gustav Forsling (1+1) each tallied two points, with Forsling being the most effective player in the opening game (+3). Joel Eriksson Ek was a real threat to Italian goalkeepers, firing nine shots on target.
🥅 Goalies
Speculation suggests that Antti Pennanen may need to reconsider his decision on the goaltender after the first match. Juuse Saros didn’t have his best game, making just 21 saves with an 87.5% save percentage for Nashville. With Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen injured, as our editorial team predicted in the preview, Joonas Korpisalo might get his opportunity.
Getting more ice time with Minnesota, Filip Gustavsson outperformed Jesper Wallstedt for the national team spot. The 27-year-old goalie stopped 20 Italian shots with a 90.9% save rate.
🏆 Winter Olympics Statistics in the 21st Century
- 2002 (Salt Lake City, USA): Finland - 6th place, Sweden - 5th place
- 2006 (Turin, Italy): Finland - 2nd place, Sweden - 1st place
- 2010 (Vancouver, Canada): Finland - 3rd place, Sweden - 5th place
- 2014 (Sochi, Russia): Finland - 3rd place, Sweden - 2nd place
- 2018 (Pyeongchang, South Korea): Finland - 6th place, Sweden - 5th place
- 2022 (Beijing, China): Finland - 1st place, Sweden - 4th place
Editorial Prediction
Even in challenging times, Finland are traditionally seen as a scoring team, and their 40 shots on goal against Slovakia in the first encounter reinforce this reputation. Crucial stats: since 2020, Finland have never gone through a tournament with two consecutive games scoring only once or not at all.
Following matches with zero or one goal, Finland have consistently bounced back with at least two goals in the subsequent game. Over the last five and a half years, this trend has been observed in 17 consecutive matches, with the Finns scoring three or more in 14 of those games. For a cautious approach, we suggest backing Finland's team total over 2 goals.
Betting Tips: Finland - Sweden
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